Member Info for Sageman

Hi Starbright open ended funds are ok you just need heightened understanding of swing pricing , cash flow and how it works. We got all our clients out of property before the end of May 2016. Very specialised markets would never let clients be as overweight as I am. Changing the subject am looking forward to an RNS in the next 2 weeks.

Hi Croc, the basic rules for U.K. commercial property are : always hold as many funds as possible to improve liquidity and diversification. Never hold in a recession or when one is feared as it is then a guaranteed loss investment. It should do well when in a normal economy with the asset growing with inflation and the rent on top. The no deal Brexit risk creates a fear of recession hence the need to be careful but no need to panic at present. Hope this helps.

Hi Crocqman, nice to liaise with you. I was watching CNBC the other night ( before the current mini rally) and they were saying that this is the worst year since 1972 because at that time every asset class except cash was negative. I am very overweight in U.K. commercial property with a normal weighting being circa 7% but this has been such a dreadful year so far for investments and 4% from a stable asset has been good. This is tactical though and I will be moving assets to cash for equity investment. We normally see a xmas rally in shares in fact last year over half the annual return on FTSE100 was achieved in December. But am unlikely to move more to shares before December 11th. In the meantime I await an RNS here accompanied by data that I myself and other investment professionals can analyse properly.

Hi Tymers, thanks for the warning. I am on it. I will start to liquidate property holdings next week ( before the 11th). I am very aware what happened in 2016 but for now gilts are negative, cash poor and U.K. commercial property doing circa 4%. The top asset class of the year.

Hi Rodders I think that my average is also circa 1.7. My view is that Portland alone supports that Sp so I am fairly relaxed long term. Since mid October I have moved 15% of my portfolio from commercial property to shares. I am making small paper losses on pretty much all the new holdings but I don’t actually care. Everything I have purchased ( excluding aim) is solid and diversified and was much more expensive earlier in the year. I have been pleased to get the opportunity to buy at these levels. If markets fall further I will buy more shares as even now I remain over 80% in commercial property funds.

When it comes to investing only a liar always buys at the bottom and always sells at the top. If Rodders bought some at 1.70 as an investment then hopefully in time that will prove to be a good price. If he bought as an investment he is taking a long term view rather than just a short term traders punt in which case he still holds. Since you only make a loss or a gain when you sell he has not lost a penny. Whether this proves to be a sound investment will be driven by K4 and RNS results not by the total carp written by certain posters here.

Tozerk, an RNS could be issued at any time. Whether it will be stellar is another matter. We should get BOPD figures from K4 before xmas.

Tozerk, a Stellar RNS would be full of detail and independently verified. It would include commerciality for both K3 and K4 with a combined flow rate of over 1500 bopd per well. It would include mention of multiple wells. It would include depletion rates. It would include confirmation of exactly how long we can pump to next year before we need a new license. It would include confirmation that as we are cash generative we need no further placings.It would also include detailed cash flow projections.I could go on as to my wish list but the above would work wonders for the sp.

Judydude, if you have to sell now and are at a loss the mistake was gambling not investing because investments in volatile stocks should be long term. As to whether this proves to be a sound investment time will tell. A stellar RNS could make it so by Xmas alternatively you may have a longer wait.

Pboo, per my previous post thanks for your help. I would however prefer not to have to "work it out". I want what the markets want namely clear communication via RNS written in plain English.

Pboo, I hear what you say but I am neither a geologist nor an oil man and nor are the financial institutions. What people "see" or think that they "see" through long lenses is not the same as reading a comprehensive RNS written in plain English. The SS interview was very positive and contained lots of things that I wanted to hear. However, it didn't matter how many times I played it back I couldn't accurately analyse anything. A simple RNS confirming that the oil being placed in the tankers is currently coming from K4 would be most welcome not just by me but by the markets in the meantime your help on this matter is appreciated. Thank you

Hi Brocal totally agree. People keep saying that we are getting oil from K4 but we know they are in clean up. So any oil must be coming from other sources--K3 ? This has led me to believe that when we do get K4 flow the tanker rate will increase and that will be the signal for shorting to stop. Then a stellar RNS would give us all a good xmas. Lots of confusion and markets hate confusion.

we know there is oil. SS said though in the presentation that we would continue to pump from all sources. What we therefore do not know is whether any of the oil is from K4. Give me 3-4 tankers per day and we will know we have K4 oil and then just need the RNS for commerciality detail etc.

In our industry you often get investment trusts trading at a discount to NAV due to sentiment. Savvy investors with a long term investment strategy will often use this discount to purchase the underlying assets cheaply. Being able to buy assets that based on Portland alone are worth 200m at an sp valuing them at 90m works for me on a similar basis.

Rodders I think that he is using NPV because fund managers do but also because it directly correlates with current Mcap and therefore shows how undervalued the current sp is. Apart from confirming the multi well scenario the NPV issue was what most influenced me to accumulate more.

Hi Starbright, Can I say that your interpretation of the interview is identical to mine which is why I said that I was unclear (and therefore so are the markets). It all sounds good but is muddled. Given our current Mcap it also explains why I feel that Portland alone underwrites the current SP once sentiment is extracted and why I believe that on a 2 year view this is actually low risk with huge upside from this level. The best Risk/reward ratio on Aim IMHO which is why I have used the shorters to let me buy lower.

This will turn when we see increased tankers so that we know they are not for K3. That will be the signal for shorters to leave. Then the RNS will be the true game changer for better or worse, I believe for better and have been taking advantage of the falling price to buy.This is my my exciting share and it now represents more than 1% of my portfolio but less than 2%. I would love to buy no more and for it to be 20% of my portfolio!

I have just had a lightbulb moment that I will share. It has been puzzling me all day. Yes Stockopedia shows this as a prime stock to short. But why would you risk it knowing that an RNS could be stellar and clean you out? Answer is that our eyes on the ground are their eyes too. They know that there would be an increased flow of tankers reported well before an RNS. They thus would have chance to close their positions.

TKR234 you just won the wooden spoon for lack of research! They don’t have the fecking figures yet and are in the early stages of testing. That is why the shorters feel safe to short. If the tankers start to roll out 3-4 per day shorters will know it is K4 and stop.

Tkr234, the only “shouting” required is an RNS screaming commerciality that is non disputable with proper written production forecasts with actual numbers that can be worked into forecasts by analysts to produce EPS, NAV, NPV cashflow, profits etc. In the meantime we need to see tankers from K4 as opposed to being from K3.