Member Info for Sageman

I would love to see this fly as I hold loads of them. However, thus far the pattern is Sp rise, DW creams something and does a placing, we then get failure, delays , promises. Then hope...and then repeated. The only people making here are DW (lol) and active traders waiting for the next cycle. My advice to any newbie here is come on board if you like, don’t bet the farm, trust none of the posters here. They post positive whilst slicing their own holdings. So if you sell half on a double you can’t go wrong. There is much here to hype with farm outs oil etc and it could easily more than double this quarter but don’t be greedy.

The 10.42 trade was a buy not a sell. Couldn’t resist. Things are rarely what they seem but the tankers give me confidence that if you can ride the volatility there is money to be made from these levels. I am in both Angus and UKOG and continue to scratch my head at the negative posts since good news for one Weald player helps the other. I think that the reason for no RNS is simply that the tests are ongoing and the BOD know that the market needs detail.

Hi Swallows 58p has nothing to do with value just an area on the graph that seems to imply strong support. At that level I would be filling my boots. I said in the autumn that I saw strong support between 80-90 ( the Sp was well over £1 at the time) and thus far it has proved to be so. In the current climate though anything is possible with good companies having their Sp ravaged indiscriminately. I have thus far only repurchased circa 20% of what I sold and am looking to add but in no hurry.

Hi Otherwys happy new year to you too and thank you for your kind words and heads up on CAML , I will take a look at it and perhaps reply on their board. There are so many bargains out there at present that doing the necessary research is nearly a full time job. I must confess that certain posters on Advfn have left me in bewildered shock. I found myself descending to their levels of rudeness and have thus decided to post here and hope that we can get a decent respect driven board just like we had at iii. GFM is fairly complex not just in terms of its location but in terms of the culture and the ongoing game of Chinese patience being played by the BOD. Long term it has bourne fruit and the BOD have major skin in the game. Zinc is always critical but so is the license. I suspect that many things will be much clearer once the license is granted. As I say long term great prospects but short term geopolitics factors may be a source of weakness.

Looking at the years high and the chart in general the market has already priced in a fairly brutal round of financing. The downside would appear to be 18p with an upside over the next 5 years being many multiples of that. I sold out over 30 and started buying back at 23.2. I expect to buy more but will await the financing prior to investing further. I like the fact that this company is so clear about its objectives and transparent in its financial forecasting.

Hi Swallows, I am not nor ever have been paranoia blue. Looking back on your posts you were previously on iii too. Who were you? I sold out circa 90% of my holdings but have bought back 3 tranches at circa 90p. I am watching to see if the Sp can maintain mid 80’s or whether we will see further weakness down to circa 58p. Long term lots of positives here but I am unsure of the short term direction of zinc due to broader weakness in China ( US driven). Typical GFM communication blackout at this time of year but expecting license, increased production, dividend etc. What are your thoughts?

Amur with 682m shares in issue my holding falls well below the 3% threshold! 7 figures only requires 1m shares but would love to hold 3% lol

Amur, I have a 7 figure number of shares so I assure you that I will not miss out on any good news. I look forward to the RNS.

Amur in answer to your your question . I welcome anyone wanting to pay large amounts of money to my bank account. However, when I look no one ever seems to! There is an old saying “show me the money”. Thus far I have not seen any and nor has the bod , hence no RNS. Hopefully moves are afoot but in the meantime winks and nods ,whilst welcome ,need to be substantiated.

We had a well publicised document in September giving details of 7 companies receiving just under $5bn of investments with other projects to be considered. We were well aware that AMC was on the table as a project for consideration at that time. I am hopeful that we are now a step closer but thus far I have not read anything to 100% confirm. I look forward to an RNS to clarify but irrespective of timing am convinced that at some stage we will receive external investment.

Firstly happy new year to all posters here and thank you for your combined attempts to answer the points that I raised. Sadly it would appear that the Advfn poster was simply rehashing old news albeit I would welcome an RNS to the contrary. Irrespective of this as a LTH I completely believe in the mine and cross my fingers that long term we will be financially rewarded.

Amur, thanks but. I simply do not believe that RY would not have known /announced it if AMC had secured massive government investment. It would be a shocking dereliction of his duty to his shareholders to withold the information. I spent circa 2 hours reading the ADVFN board. Where is the date on the document? Do you believe that only one person can read and translate. Where is the specific mention of the amount to be invested in amc? Happy with the Sp rise, happy that things are happening. Cross my fingers that it is true in the meantime I await the RNS or a posting of the Chinese original that can be validated and translated by the scores of people that read these boards. The idea that one poster has seen the document, translated it and only let a few of his mates read it works for say a few hours. 48 hours later , really? I hope so.

Hi Amur , thanks for your validation. My understanding having read Advfn is that the original is in Chinese and a single poster was letting selected people see a translation on the 29th/30th . Information does not stay secret for long and today is the 1st. What date is the original document? Why can I not see it anywhere on the net? Did you see the Chinese original? Who translated the date ( unless you speak Chinese). If this document was available on the 29th/30th it beggars belief as to why no RNS has been issued. How much is being invested in AMC? Please forgive my suspicion. I have lots of these shares and would love to believe that we are on the cusp of an explosion in the Sp .

I am a LTH here that used to post on iii. I would love to see the actual document. I refer to the September 10th announcement that 73 projects were under consideration for investments of up to $100bn by a joint Chinese Russian group. At that time 7 projects had been given the go ahead worth $4.6 bn. Is this just someone republishing that story or is it saying that further projects have now been given the go ahead? FWIW my view is that the mine itself has been proven , it just needs to be built. The question is by who and whether AMC PI’s will get a fair reward.

Just to wish all posters here a very Happy New year. I posted for 12 years on iii on GFM and am hopeful that some of my fellow former iii posters will contribute here and that we can get some lively debate going. Here’s to a prosperous 2019

One of the main reasons that I sold out last year was that as a student I studied things like the Humber bridge and the Channel Tunnel. They always come in over budget ,even well run projects like this one. However, the budget over run here is relatively modest and the Sp has taken a hit of nearly 50% since additional funding needs were announced. IMHO as long as those funding needs are not increased or that a substantial portion is funded by a 10p placing the Sp has already taken the required hit. I have read some of the doom and gloom projections but believe that a more balanced view of a potential bottom is circa 18p thus for me the risk reward ratio here is good accompanied by a 3-5 year investment time horizon.

The most ridiculous part of the post about the values of company’s and why it is irrelevant is that it said nothing about onshore or offshore and costs of production. Similarly nothing was said about geographical location and the security of the wells. We have little to analyse whilst we await the RNS’s and in the meantime the stock market is throwing up bargains galore. Personally I am putting my time into enjoying the holiday and acquiring shares where I can analyse actual data eg yesterday you could buy Lloyd’s just 1p higher than its 5 year low. I am not recommending it , just citing it as an example of some of the low prices out there.

My goodness what a pile of rubbish on this thread! I will make it easy for rampers and derampers alike. You need to read the fecking RNS albeit that it has not yet been issued. So be patient and both rampers and derampers should stop embarrassing themselves. How on earth can you analyse figures that have yet to be released? The more certain posters post the lower their IQ appears to be!

Having sold out last year I bought back in recently at 23.2 having set a target of 25p when the Sp was well north of 30p. Last time I bought to trade this time for the bottom draw. NPV circa £2.30 with today’s Sp driven down by beta that exceeds the market ( thus sxx getting disproportionately hit by market volatility) and funding risks. Product sales not due to 2021/2022. As project get closer to production NPV rises also Sp should have a lower discount to NPV . I doubt we will see the Sp below 18p. I solely reinvested previous profits and will may buy more depending on Sp and funding outcome. I like the risk reward ratio here.

GK just to wish you a very happy festive season and a prosperous new year. I followed you closely on iii and you remain imho the best informed poster on this share ( albeit sometimes overly positive). I credit you with the single most useful post that I have ever read on a BB. You may not recall but when SXX were going to a main listing we were discussing this and you found evidence that at that time PI’s held the vast bulk of the shares. Knowing that the institutions and trackers would be forced buyers I loaded up in the low 20’s and sold the lot last year well over 30p. I have recently bought back in at 23.2 using profits that your post generated. People say that these BB’s can’t make you money but very occasionally they can. Good luck to you.