Member Info for Sageman

Just bought another 100,000. The prospects for this project are little changed as a result of the internal politics of the BOD. One thing I have learned is to buy on dips that are caused by political rather than economic factors. Given what lies ahead I thought that 9.5p was good so I had a nibble. Today another nibble. If it drops more perhaps another nibble.

Argus you received many recommends for your earlier post which is some ways is a shame because it reflects a lack of reality. My view is that with the licenses we would be potentially worth £200m. Our M cap based on our current sp is £65m. Realistically therefore 3-4 p could happen in the coming months. Your double digit sp may come in 2020 but for now is pure fantasy unless driven by irrational sentiment (in which case sell at that level!). It is not helpful for people to over ramp this. A share that can double or treble in a matter of months and thereafter do the same in the coming years is attractive enough!

My view is that everything is precisely as suspected, which is why the sp dropped from mid 30's in the first place.I bought back some when it went under 25 and have just bought back more at 20 (9 day EMA 21.4). Good long term buy with reasonable expectation of EMA being hit/exceeded short term. I would be shocked to see 18p breached so upside potential far exceeds reasonable probability of downside risk.

Hi Swallows sorry I did not reply sooner but I have been somewhat tied up. In terms of the SP it is good to see that mid 80's held and I think that the current rise is based on markets in general post xmas but also specifically due to improved US/China talks and Chinese government stimulus measures. Zinc is used heavily in construction and GFM sell straight to the Chinese.Chinese stimulus is good for demand for zinc and thus supportive of the zinc price. Results are not due until April and the news vacuum continues but thus far no sign of a pump and dump. Good to see the sp rising.

Hi Rodders good post to illustrate the potential. It is not a ramping post and could be considered conservative given potential from other projects. However, do the same calculation with only 1000 BOPD and a 15 times P/E ratio and the the sp is much lower. The issue remains that a market cap of 65m (even though it translates to only 1.15p ) needs commercial success to support it. I await the numbers that I believe will more than prove that Rodders' post is conservative.

If you believe that SS is intelligent it would follow that he is acutely aware of the need for a financial plan based on expectations of actual production. One therefore would ask why has he not produced it? Unless he is lying about the potential , which I doubt there is only one logical answer. PLANNING CONSENT. Bullish projections would not be helpful when faced with a twitch planning department.

Sentiment will return when we have a properly costed business plan. SXX is producing nothing but is a FTSE250 stock based solely on the business plan which can be analysed.The lack of business plan is actually what makes this attractive if you believe in the project since it is solely a lack of data that is causing the sp to be at this level. If you believe in the project then you know that the data will follow. In the meantime institutions do not invest on belief they invest on numbers. The question is do you believe?

With apologies to some I have rarely read such drivel. We have a 65m market cap and there remains every chance that this company can be a mid cap which would translate to an Sp north of 10p. The issue is that all we are getting is videos and an RNS with a lack of financial analysis. A pessimistic view of the bare bones can give an Sp of circa 0.5p. I remain bewildered that SS has not got an accountancy firm to come up with projections and cash flows combined with a proper business plan. I believe in this project and that we will get the financial analysis needed at which point the Sp should soar ( unless SS has been lying).

phil7390 agree with your post in terms in respect of the fact that it summarises where I expect the company to be in future. But with no depletion rates and no properly costed transparent business plan in the public domain much is dependent on realisation of hopes and potential. To invest today requires belief as opposed to a solid business case built on numbers. To say we expect to build 6 wells is great but what is needed is " we will build x wells on the following dates. Production per well is expected to be in the region of x&y barrels per day. We expect to achieve an average of $x per barrel. Our costs will be x. Our ownership of each well is x. Therefore our anticipated profit in 2019 is y. In 2020 we will drill y wells at an anticipated cost of x. We anticipate bringing a further n wells into production in 2020....." What we have thus far is nothing like this and therefore no institution is investing

Free money the lowest FTSE100 stock has a market cap of 4.1bn and the lowest FTSE mid cap has a market cap of 618m.. You need to do proper research prior to "correcting" others. To say that you should only invest if you expect the M cap to go to a minimum of 2bn is laughable as this would be saying that you should only invest if you think the share will increase 30 fold.I would love that to happen but if by the end of 2020 we are in the 5-10p range I will be very happy and I suspect many others would be too.

Free money with the greatest respect to be a mid cap you need a company value of 600m plus. I am very positive about the potential of UKOG and believe that they could become a mid cap but there was nothing in that RNS that could be analysed in terms of cash flow, profits, depletion either now or in the future. Thus the sp is unmoved.

The RNS is positive but given our existing market cap we need more to substantiate a re-rate. We need to know how this translates financially rather than have to guess ourselves. There are very few financial calculations that can be run following this RNS that could not have been done yesterday.

Hi Seadoc, impressive post but the formula is always limited to what one inputs. Actually if you look at my post a 20m mcap would give you a similar result.in terms of the sp .The issue is what are the forward earnings? Then do you use 10,15,20,25 times earnings? If all one does is look at current tanker flows then the sp can easily fall. It is a question now of show me the money. SS has talked about his intentions, multiple wells etc and we can all see what could happen. The potential here is huge. But in terms of what is visible and what we can value we have very little, The EWT is ongoing and over time SS will be able to fine tune. However, there must be room for an update by now with numbers that we have and expected figures that we can extrapolate from. With further testing required to clarify etc. Basically we need the numbers via an RNS.

Lots of directionless comments about the SP. The SP is irrelevant. Ask a different question what market cap would you apply to a company with operating profits circa £2-3m pa. £20m? £30m. Well our 1.2p sp gives us a market cap of circa £70m!!! The numbers off a few tankers a day do not support current sp hence comments about sub 1p by the de-rampers. BUT, a detailed RNS with a financial plan with cashflow, drilling costs, profits over the next 5-10 years could give you a much higher m cap and share price based on multiple wells and unrestricted flows. That is why the RNS is so critical and also why in its absence the shorters have scope to play their games.

QWERTY dividends are paid out of profits or retained profits from previous years. Clearly UKOG can not pay a dividend. Also it would be commercially ridiculous to pay out money when it is desperately required to fund wealth enhancing expansion.

Apologies in advance to sophisticated investors but there is a common mistake where people look at the Sp rather than the mcap. Thus we currently have as Sp of circa 1.25p and an mcap of 71m. You could get the same mcap with only 7.1m shares and a £10 share price. The value of the company is the same. I see posters here saying well we have tankers producing all this oil. Comments like $6m pa of oil and our Sp is only 1.25p. Ok but not all the oil is ours and it costs circa $20 per barrel to produce. Thus this oil may translate into profit of only £2m but we have a £71m market cap! We also have to fund well drilling and we do not know how long the oil will flow for and the depletion rates. It is clear therefore that we have little to analyse to support the Sp on what is visible. BUT throw in 6 wells and take the choke off so it flows much faster and suddenly we have an Sp that is very undervalued. Then throw in hope value for other projects and hopefully we have a 250 mid cap. I hope this helps some people here understand what is going on.

Beraine, that is precisely the point . The market needs the numbers to analyse and UKOG are still testing. Mick knowing the potential is 100% different to being able to deliver on that potential. I have several of these and I believe it will come good but I regard it as a high risk gamble with money I can afford to lose. However, at present it is a leap of faith. I would not invest client money here unless it was punt money. The real money will come when we have the hard data. It is this data that is crucial and as I have said before everything else is irrelevant. Cosy videos and tankers help settle the nerves but our mcap is over 71m. I have every hope that this will be stellar and an element of those hopes are within the Sp and sentiment is fickle. Thus the Sp will swing wildly and will be open to manipulation until we get hard data.

Tankers are very reassuring but we have a mcap of 71m. What is important right now is a detailed RNS with proper cashflow and profit calculations over the next 5-10 years. At present it is just a back of a fag packet extrapolation of what we may or may not do. People need proper numbers to crunch. SXX is a good example. It is a mid 250 company based on a business plan that it transparent and can be analysed. A few tankers a day would scarecely justify the current mcap in terms of numbers. However, ramp it up with numerous wells across the Weald and bring in the other projects and the potential is huge. SS making comforting videos is “nice” but the detailed RNS is what we need.

FWIW. The doom and gloom of the derampers is not currently justified by the technical analysis. Both yesterday and today the market bounced comfortably off the 200 day moving average which is just under 9p. In the absence of an RNS the 9 day EMA is a more probable short term target and that is circa 10.5p. Hope that this steadies some nerves.

Read the RNS. Board room politics = no impact on oil. Operations update = all proceeding ok or would have had to reveal problem. Raise 3m. Assume if oil flows per UKOG they will pay it back from cash flow. Share price down to 9p. Have bought back shares sold at 12 and added another 400,000 on top. Be greedy when others are fearful. Buy on dips.I was light here so happy to top up.