Member Info for Sageman

Yanis - doh no! The money I have made on the sale means that the total spent on Angus , which can be offset on the original holding , has reduced. The point I am making is that traditional averaging down can still lead you a long way out of the money albeit that the new trades are making money. The new trades can then slip in and out of the money and are not traded due to the average. This style of trading helps control losses especially in a share spiking lower. The good thing is that I have maintained my original holding ( which I remain happy with) . I only bought more because of the fall and being a long way out of the money. My B/E on the original tranche is now circa 9p due to trading profits.

Rxdav, just to add to your post. When I buy on dips yes it reduces my average but I also treat each purchase separately with its own independent profit point. My average here was circa 11p. I bought some more at 5.2. That bought the average to 7.8. But I sold the 5.2 tranche today over 6. Logic I still have my original tranche that will do well if this flys but have reduced my exposure. If it dips again I can buy again thus further reducing the average but crucially I have not become overcommitted. Volatile stocks generally throw up several profit points.

KRIS1981, I was initially very annoyed by the placing and have big reservations. However, I have decided to give SS the benefit of the doubt. To justify his actions (a placing at this ridiculously low SP) what he knows/believes that is not yet in the public domain needs to be dynamite. If that is indeed the case then we may yet be richly rewarded but for now of course I am intensely annoyed at the sp. Patience.

SS prepared to do placings at ridiculously low SP levels in order to urgently acquire assets prior to the CPR. I bought more yesterday hoping that what he knows will eventually be seen to justify those actions.

I refer to the CPR from last summer which referred to the position at 1/1/2018. In the meantime UKOG have done a lot of geological work and a new CPR is outstanding. What is in that CPR? Why is SS doing placings and buying up things when the SP is so low? I hope he knows something.

Foxtrot Oscar is not actually swearing. What is abusive is some of the posts here that are both slanderous and libellous. I wish people had to use their real names with their addresses posted too. Then they would think twice when they post . So called key pad “ warriors” are typically keypad cowards who would not dare confront SS with some of what they feel able to freely express here.

Cyan , forgive me but I am bored silly by the posting here. Speculation is pointless. I await the RNS. Unless SS is lying he has plenty of money to drill ( per the RNS). In which case he could easily drill his horizontals bank some cash and watch the SP climb prior to making new acquisitions. Now you either believe that he is a completely witness fool with the business skills of a dead hamster or that there is a compelling commercial reason for buying now and raising cash at a stupidly low SP. If you believe the former then please foxtrot Oscar. If you believe the latter then , like me, you will be awaiting with great interest the RNS. Sometimes in business it pays to play your cards close to your chest . I am hoping for short term pain but long term gain. Time will tell.

Clearly some of the posters here believe that SS is lying. Personally I am not happy at a placing at this level but expect that SS has some strong reason for buying Weald assets now. He clearly believes that the information he holds will make the price of those assets rocket in value. I am having to trust him on this one and eagerly await an RNS as to what the geological’s now show and what the purchases are. if He is indeed lying then shame on him. In the meantime some of the posts here are bordering on slander are a disgrace. Innocent until proved guilty....time will tell.

A few people here may find it useful to re-read the CPR published by Xodus last summer based on the position at 1/1/2018. Thereafter UKOG did a lot of work and an updated CPR is due. In the meantime SS is in a tearing hurry to buy additional assets and prepared to do a placing eve at this ridiculously low sp.. Question, why?- if you knew that the field next door had gold under it would you wait to buy it until everyone else knew too or would you mortgage the farm to buy it cheaply now before word gets out? I could be wrong but I think SS knows something!

My initial reaction to the RNS was pure anger that SS could do a placing at this price.Then I thought about it. Why not wait until the so is higher? Unless one believes SS is an idiot (in which case sell immediately) there is only one conclusion. He needs the money today to buy assets quickly that will otherwise be priced much more highly later in the year. On the back of that logic I purchased another 2m shares. SS knows something and is not releasing data until hae has made his strategic purchases. Short term pain, long term gain. Here's hoping

We know that the mine is good what we don’t know is whether AMC will run out of cash and be forced to sell up cheaply leaving PI’s with meagre pickings. This deal with others in the background helps solve this problem. In the wider market Russian deals continue to be shunned due to sanctions. I continue to believe that in time this will deliver, we just need to remain in the game financially. The right asset,in the right place at the right time....but that time is not yet.

Nhwan, well done on your profit. However, this is not “the” news we are waiting for and is just a mini spike. In contrast I have bought more. For my part the news is merely confirmation that the new management are fit for purpose. I will not worry if the Sp does drop back a little because if they pull this off the Sp has plenty of room to multi bag from here. What was previously rotten was the management, that is now resolved. GLA

Geo nobody wants to have 1000’s tied up in anything waiting for an opportunity to exit. However, most PI’s here are precisely in that boat. If you are waiting for news then in the meantime the chart is of academic interest since no chart can predict the impact of a game changing RNS. Also paper losses are precisely that. You only make a gain or a loss on a sale. Lots of people here who have not invested , just gambled. Luckily with shares if the gamble goes south in the short term patience combined with trading may rescue the day. I have my own definition of a long term Aim holding as follows: a short term punt that went wrong that with time and luck may eventually come good.

Without being boring you only make losses and gains when you sell. I bought some more to average down and have put them into the bottom drawer. It is now a long term play rather than just a short term gamble. I get the feeling that too many people bet the farm here and are now blaming everyone else for their reckless greed. This is AIM. Diversify and only invest what you can afford to lose. Also be prepared to hold for up to 5 years. Too much impatient hot money.

I think that “crass stupidity “ is most unfortunate terminology . However, where AIM shares are concerned buying and holding has a high probability of damaging your wealth. I held 5m and bought another 2m at 1.07 in January to average down. I decided to profit take on the 2m at 1.38 literally the day before the duster. Trading has thus helped but the bulk of my holding is still losing. Do I buy again for FO? Am unsure. Like many here I am looking to sell into a spike but the new spike may only be just over 1p short term. Got to hand it to DW he sure knows how to cream it! We seem to have a Jonah at the wheel whereas we all need king Midas. GLA

Hi Sko, I haven’t spoken to Roger since last summer but my understanding is that the BOD would like to pay a dividend but only when it makes sense to do so. I am not expecting them to do any acquisitions but I do expect them to build a cushion of cash and invest heavily in the mine post license. We are in an information vacuum currently and will be until early April but my understanding is that the poor ore quality was very much a one off. My hope is that the uptick in zinc and gold in recent weeks is sufficient for the BOD to pay a small dividend but I expect it to be modest. I have some limit buy orders outstanding under £1 but do not expect to get lucky. My feeling is that ,in the absence of a strong commodity sell off, the Sp has bottomed between 80 and 90 as predicted. I tend to agree with your NAV calcs but feel that once the license is bagged this has much further to go.

Hi Skopolitis, I have been in GFM since 2006 and used to post frequently on iii. I have read your posts with interest but feel that your comment about the BOD “running out of excuses “ in terms of of a dividend were unfortunate. They were unable to pay a dividend until they had cleared their overdraft which they only did in December 2017. But this was done to some extent by manipulating debtors and creditors. They will need money for expansion post license and zinc can be very volatile. Commercially they needed to build a buffer. I believe though that with the current strength of both zinc and gold they they are well placed to pay a small dividend.

The RNS was an OK but extremely long read but as posts here show it lacked what everyone actually needs ie detailed cash flow forecast modelling and profit forecasts. Thus the likes of Seadoc and Argus needing to do their own and the speculation of a cash raise. My own expectation FWIW is that once we get decent oil flows banks will be happy to lend against the income stream as opposed to ever more dilution. Bank funding can then accelerate our drilling program which would hopefully bring forward increased revenue streams and propel the sp.

Multiply the shares in issue by the current sp and you get a market cap of £4m. On this basis the fall in the sp looks excessive. The company has cash (possibly circa £3m) which then means everything else has a fairly trivial value according to the sp.

If you don’t want ever closer integration ( necessary if you have a single currency) then you eventually have to opt out. Everyone I have spoken to wants close trade links with Europe but few would want a superstate. May’s deal worked except for the backstop. Who told her that her deal was legally binding when the Atorney general said it isn’t? This is the biggest scandal of the last few days. As soon as the atorney general spoke the deal was lost. If the Irish border does not stay open the IRA will start bombing again . No Deal = closed border = end of Good Friday agreement.