Member Info for Sageman

Oil companies drill dusters, it happens. They then move on to the next opportunity. People here are still in the past. You only lose when you sell. Focus on future opportunities, it is all we can do. I too am ****ed off sitting on a 6 figure paper loss. At 4.5p I break even . There is still a chance that next year I will break even but being negative and crying about the past is futile , complete wombat behaviour.

The problem is the market cap is tiny. A legal case will just reward lawyers. For us we have to hope for better luck next time. What are the prospects going forwards not what happened yesterday.

We need to move on . The BOD say the problem was the maturity of the rocks. That is the past. The past will not make anyone any money. Moaning about it will not help. I have averaged down and cross my fingers for Saltfleet and Balcombe.

Some pretty rubbish feedback on the conference call . I listened to the whole thing and asked a question. In my mind Brockham is dead and Saltfleet and Balcombe are the interesting plays short term. Our Mcap is £8m. Saltfleet is forecast to net us £2-3m pa. They also talked about ways to accelerate the flow of gas and the Numerian potential gas as well. My take was that 50p is pie in the sky but 10p is doable next year.

Not sure why my earlier post has been taken down? Listening to the interview and the volumes of potential oil it is worth remembering at UKOG they estimate costs at $20 per barrel. Assuming Mongolia is cheaper the profit potential on an oil strike is huge possibly circa $45 per barrel. Heron has 25m barrels 75% chance, Gazelle 13 m barrels 50% chance and Red Deer 33% chance circa 50m barrels. All results expected by end of September

Dragons Den comes to mind where people place a huge value on their business but take a much lower figure due to an inability to realise the value without 3rd party financing. I am hoping for a large major with deep pockets looking for acreage and prospects and happy to pay a fair price. My expectations for the sp are considerably more modest that £1 but well in excess of current levels. I have thus rated it a strong buy. Lastly remember patience is key. I am personally involved in a deal where both parties are 100% engaged and committed. We expected to complete in December 2018 but will complete next week. These things just take time!

My 1 million buy at 1.425 was the bottom of the market (for now) pure luck!

Bummblebee you can only be 100% underwater if you lose all your money, LOL!! Just bought a million at 1.42. If it bounces to 2p I will sell them. If it drops to 1 p I will buy another million. Sentiment is not rational. Looking at the drop this year on what is 26% of company assets it has been overdone. Has the maximum point of pessimism been reached? Don't know but did really well buying Petro Matad at just over 2p in similar circumstances. This is the AIM casino -enjoy!

The best time to buy is the maximum point of pessimism. Posts here suggest despair. Brockham is worth 26% of company assets yet SP is down nearly 60%. A good time to have a nibble. I have not lost anything today because I haven't sold. When I bought I expected that it could be for a number of years. Disappointed yes , devastated no. Advantage of having a well diversified portfolio and only putting limited cash in to high risk stocks. GLA

Did anyone else hear the word Exxon mentioned?

wl1516 I believe that you do work in logging, it would be appropriate especially if you are processing your own. Sitting on this board as a deramper deliberately annoying people makes you a pathetic troll. FWIW my view is that the last RNS actually sounded business like. Someone who wants to focus on developing assets rather than continual dilution.In the meantime we await this to flow. If it flows commercially we will make money if not we will lose. In the meantime do one!

Jiddy, deals of this nature can take a long time with delays having no bearing on the outcome. A deal that I am personally involved in was due to complete in December 2018. Both parties have been 100% committed but both parties are in the hands of their legal teams. My deal will definitely complete- we are assured that we are now only 2 weeks away but at the beginning of the month we were told it would be 100% done in June. I think it may slip into early July. This knowledge has meant that I topped up here on SP weakness due to delays. The FO is happening, it just takes time!

Great RNS. It is all about cashflow forecasts and bank ability. When you need to raise finance you have to demonstrate an ability to pay. Having guaranteed sales gives guaranteed cash flow = financial confidence. For me this is another positive step in the financing jigsaw.

DT no manipulation just realisation that we have no rig and that 220 barrels per day spread over 6bn shares means that the value of that oil per share is SFA .We need positive drilling and evidence that the policy of endless dilution is over in order for the SP to rise.

Carlthat, totally agree. Most day traders lose because they have no strategy and poor research. When you gamble you tend to lose to the HOUSE or bookie. In this case that is the MM who happily makes money on every trade. The biggest mistake is to overly commit and be impatient. If you have bought in to a spike then it is ok if you have only bought a modest amount. This allows you to buy on a dip and progressively sell into spikes. The difference with this and futures is that time is your friend. I limit my trading stocks to a small part of my portfolio ( typically 5%) and keep it to circa 10 volatile stocks that I constantly watch. No one ever gets poor taking a profit and selling half on a double are words that have saved me a lot of money over the years.

I have just taken a look at the RNS and read it in conjunction with all RNS's since 3/4/19. The language is not gung ho but very considered. Of course flow testing would only begin if everyone agrees! But words like "Pleased" to announce and "per schedule" especially since they seem pretty much ON schedule seem to have been overlooked.I read it as softly, softly things are heading in the right direction.

Apologies all. I was distracted half way through the post and ended up typing half of what I intended. The calculation with all the steps showed a range of 2-5p depending on a range of factors.

The issue is that we have a MCAP of £60m already and produce very little oil. There is already expectation of increased production built in to the price.Even at 3000 BOPD assuming $20 profit and 12 of it is ours you only get $10.5m of profit. Put it on a multiple of 15 = MCAP of $150m = £120m = 2p SP. We have a long way to go to get to 3000 bopd! Had the dilution been less the 3000 BOPD would have a far bigger impact on the SP. We now need not just these horizontals to do well but also other projects with negligible further dilution to get the SP anywhere near PI expectations. These are facts so don't shoot the messenger.

I posted a while ago that I have some direct experience of M&A. One should not read anything negative in to delays. Due diligence and legals just take for ever and the parties both sides of the deal are just stuck in limbo waiting. A deal I am involved in was due to complete in December having started in July 2018. The progress has been slow but it is all good with completion now due for later this month. This FO deal will be just the same as the process is very similar.. Patience.

Art, UKOG has 10 times more shares than Matad. It follows that any news has less impact on the sp since news here has some very heavy lifting to do.