Member Info for Sageman

Wolf no guarantees with any outfit. If you want guarantees your bank manager beckons with his fat 1.5% pa!

Wolf investors want profits and cashflow not dreams. Dreams only last until you wake up and often become nightmares. Properly considered business plans with a sound financial basis are what makes proper investors part with their cash as opposed to gamblers who got fed up with the horses!

I think they have been reading the UKOG board and seen how shareholders lose all confidence when there is massive dilution and no consideration of the owners (us). The talk of positive cashflow and targeting dividends as opposed to land grabs and rantings about trains leaving stations etc is a breath of fresh air. Much better management should give a better Sp when the oil eventually flows commercially.

Just to say that I am personally currently involved in 2 large deals. Both are going through. Both are substantially delayed. Financial due diligence and the legals just take an age and it is important to get it right. In the meantime you sign a non disclosure agreement. I think 88e are in that situation, in which case for once DW is not to blame.

Wizard, I own them in my pension, in my ISA,my children’s ISA’s, my unit trust and my wife’s ISA. Logging in to each account and adding them all up is a pain, in total it is circa 18m. Unless you buy them in chunks of shares you end up with a silly odd number each time you buy 10k worth. With each share only worth a penny the actual number is fairly irrelevant. 18m is close enough.Given that in total it is less than 2% of my holdings the Trump/ China trade war has been a far bigger factor this week , don't you just love Trump!?

DHC, my motive is simple. This company with proper financial management should make us all good profits assuming that the oil flows. I have done my own calculations based on multiple pads and horizontals and the potential is extraordinary which is why I have so many shares. All was going to plan and then SS lost the plot. He has got excited based on the potential and in the process is destroying both current shareholder value and potential. The purpose of my posting is to get the message through to anyone close to him that he must change course. Develop what we have and stop diluting away our value and his credibility. If I am successful I will have done all shareholders on this board a massive favour. In the meantime my posts will make no impact on the Sp. I would happily sit on the board as a shareholders representative but do not expect to receive a call!

DHC , I have 18m shares at 1.35p. I have plenty and need no more. My expectation is that I will make money from here but only if SS. stops destroying value via needless dilution. I have written to the company and been ignored. Hopefully my posts will be read by some of his staff and be taken notice of. I solely want the Sp to rise.

Mirasol and Wizard. Firstly this is a PI. Share. There is no properly led opposition to the BOD by institutions. Thus things just get passed. That is very different to active support. Then we have the 50 - 60 m free cash flow next year. So Wiz how many barrels a day is that? What oil price ? What %age have you assumed UKOG will receive of the BOPD?
Then to achieve that flow of oil what further dilution will we suffer? How much of this free cash flow will SS then spend on development? What impact do you think this will have on the SP. Thus far we get a bigger mcap because we have more shares but all the time the Sp goes lower. As I have stated the oil is here and the opportunity is clear which is why I am invested. What is not clear is whether the poor bastards funding it all ( namely us shareholders) will ever see any financial benefit!

Following on from post below. What SS has caused is a Circe of cumulative causation or put another way a vicious circle. With one dilution followed by another. Thus using the example below your Sp has dropped by 40% and then you see something else to buy but your Sp was £1. Now it is 60p and the dilution occurs from the 60p level, lose another 40% and you are down to 36p and so on. Continue this process and you end up with 6bn shares and an Sp of 1.05p and very annoyed owners! As shareholders we need to send a strong message to the BOD. Stop the land grabs and dilution and concentrate on developing what we have at a slower pace such that cashflow is generated and more of the growth is self sustaining. If you get 3000 BOPD and are generating profits banks are happy to lend on the back of that success so that you can get another 3000 BOPD and so on. Who knows in time you could actually reverse the dilution with buy backs and eventually pay dividends but sadly not with SS in charge!

Wizard I simply went to bed, nothing to do with your “facts” posted here after midnight! The first thing is there were no facts displayed in your post. Your post started with “IF”. UKOG sadly does not currently “have” 1.3 bn barrels of oil and in the absence of a CPR and successful horizontals we can only guess at quantity and recoverability. I agree that should UKOG be successful those assets would be more valuable. If the assets were key now and could be purchased at a good price it would be worthwhile. However, purchasing by dilution means we have paid a colossal price.As a simple example say you can buy something which will give you a 5% bigger share of the action and purchase it half price then it is cheap if you borrow to buy it. In contrast if you dilute your investors by more that 5% and at the same time your share price falls by 40% it was an extremely costly error of judgement. The BOD are servants of the business owners and the job is to increase shareholder value. In contrast SS is on an ego trip with no regard for the business owners and that is why he is not fit for purpose as proven by the destruction of shareholder value here and loss of investor confidence as proven by the Sp.

I have no issues with the potential here. The sole issue is unnecessary dilution at this time when the SP is depressed. As I said in my earlier post run some happy numbers at x thousand barrels per day, work out the profit. Divide it by 6bn. Then assume a P/ E ratio of 20 . The resulting SP is nowhere near what it could/should have been. Since SS is hell bent on dilution it makes the share univestable because every time a rise happens he dilutes heavily. The result is each peak gets lower and each trough gets lower. He is unprepared to establish production to get a cash cow that can be modelled and lent to. He thinks he can short cut and just get free money by dilution. It is not free. As I said before the pilchard did his 14/2/19 raise when the Sp was 1.6. I had a 1.35 average ( and still have) and was looking forwards to the horizontals. He said we were fully funded. We now have an Sp of 1.05 , more dilution and a pile of things not needed to drill. Financially clueless and unfit to run the company but a good geologist. He has cost everyone here a lot of money.

I can pretty much put a date on when SS proved to the world that he is fiscally incontinent 14/2 /2019. Our sp was 1.6p and he did a placing for more assets that we don’t need yet. Subsequently he has done 2 more driving the Sp to current levels. These acquisitions have little to do with current drilling and everything to do with ego and grand ambition. I’ll conceived, ill timed and disastrous in terms of the Sp. At a stroke turning the company into an investable project because he has shown complete disregard for the owners/ investors. He should have concentrated on drilling and production, drive up cashflow and profits and then purchase. It is called trying to run before you can walk. Sadly by the time we got to 14/2/2019 I had a large holding. The shame of it is that with proper financial leadership we can still all come out making money because the oil is there. However, dilution has massively limited the upside. 6bn shares is simply ridiculous. If you doubt this then I suggest that you get your calculator out and run some numbers. How much profit do you expect a good drill at HH to yield? Then divide that profit by the 6bn shares in issue. Assume various P/E ratios say 15-25. Then look at the resultant Sp. You then realise just how much SS has screwed you via dilution.

GKB in many ways your post hits the nail on the head. UKOG is the antithesis of SXX. SXX produced a proper investable business plan and is a FTSE250 company without ever producing anything. Ok bumps in the road but a clear road map. The result is that they can raise loans etc. UKOG need to get the CPR , get the wells producing. That then yields substantial cashflow and profitability. Then produce a coherent business plan with cashflow modelling such that investors have an idea of what is intended. Here we have vague rubbish about “ a chunk of change” from the tankers and trains leaving the station. In the meantime the train refuels with our cash every hundred yards. The issue is that there is no free lunch and everyone has wised up to SS fiscal incompetence. The Sp is on its knees and SS needs a radical change of policy. He needs to harvest what he has to commercially investable levels. The more shares in issue the lower the impact on the Sp when we do get the oil flowing to x thousand barrels per day.

Hi Ninetails , I agree but if he did know something that would massively inflate the Sp then he should wait for that to happen prior to dilution. Oil is different to say Gold. With gold once you know the concentration and the direction of the seam you can 100% predict if you can commercially mine the land next door. With oil other variables come in to play thus the land next door would not be as valuable as the producing mine . Ever since the £3.5m raise I have been hoping for a purchase followed by an RNS stating that the seller did not have a scooby that the land had more oil than Dallas! I live in hope but no longer with any expectation having originally given SS the benefit of the doubt.

SS makes the school boy error of thinking that if he gets his well commercial the land next door will become more expensive. Therefore he buys now. This works if you are buying using loans. But if you prove your well to be successful your profits and SP will rise . The land next door will rise on hope value but not anywhere near as much as the value of your Sp. Thus diluting prior to commercial success is about the dumbest thing anyone would do if they were trying to build shareholder value as opposed to going on a land grab irrespective of the cost to the business owners. I would understand the dilution if he was forced to buy or raise money to keep the ship afloat but buying future land for development with the Sp at this level and using dilution is unforgivable. If I were an institutional investor I would have him removed as CEO and restricted to geology.

Financially Incontinent = a person who pisses money up a wall = SS. SS the great diluter who thinks that it is free money but forgets that we the business owners provide it. Diluting when the SP is in a trough is akin to financial terrorism. Even if we saw a spike you just know that SS would dilute again. He gets a big debt free company. We get shares that are falling lower and lower. My patience is wearing thin and the judgement of the market as conveyed by the SP speaks more loudly than any ramp here. Still no cash flow forecasts or credible financial investable plans. Financial incompetence on an epic scale destroying value for investors irrespective of the prospects for the wells.

Back in the 80’s I studied both the building of the Humber Bridge and The Channel tunnel. Both were great and worthwhile projects , both over run their budgets by a considerable margin. It was always probable that this project would do the same. Once built SXX will be very profitable for years and years with dividends and capital gains. My view is that the latest capital raise substantially de risks this. People investing at this levels as opposed to just speculating will make good profits . However, investing is 5 - 10 years as opposed to day trading. I have done well from my trading such that I now hold over 1m with a B/E of circa 10p. I now intend to lock them in the bottom drawer unless we get an irrational short term spike. GLA

EIE01, My price target has fallen from 30p to 5p due to dilution. I have had to average down to have a 1.35 B/E as a result of the dilution and thus hold more shares than I would wish. Accordingly letting some go at 1.5p makes every sense. I try to hold no more than 1% in any Aim share with 2% being my self imposed maximum and thus increasing it to nearer 2% means I hold too many to buy more. If I sold some at 1.5p and it fell back again then I could buy more. If I sold some and it continued to rise I would still be happy because I would be making money with the shareholding I wanted in the 1st place. At present I am essentially locked in. Investment always requires a strategy and discipline..

Tollesbury , I have fond childhood memories of the outside swimming pool fed by sea water....atb

Thanks Tollesbury and may I similarly wish all the best for you and hope that you have a lovely Easter. My grandma came from Tollesbury and her maiden name was Fell , it was a very large family in a relatively small village. Her name is still on the board in the village school. Still miss her every day...