Member Info for Sageman

I never initially invest more than 1% of my portfolio in a single share and have a rule never to hold more than 2% in a single share. I am ****ed off with my current paper losses but this single rule has been a godsend. Recent gains on Lloyds have mitigated my dismay since I have sold to crystallize whereas here I hold in hope. I always invest hoping for a quick buck but prepared for a 5 year stint. This is now in the 5 year drawer.

We know that they are making cut backs to preserve cash so there is no news here!!! Large infrastructure projects of this nature usually have funding issues eg Humber bridge, Channel tunnel. The question is will it get built? I think so. The next question is whether PI's will get burned? Answer not sure. People had dreams of £5 and 30p dividends. Perhaps the dream now will be 30p and 2p dividends. If it is the latter LTH's will get their cash back. In the meantime some of the posts on this board are regrettable.

I have read some poor posts here today from both shorters and rampers. The reality is that if Gazelle had been commercial everyone would be full of praise. I am hopeful of Heron especially since they have been quick to abandon others but are continuing with this one. If Heron is commercial the flow rate is actually critical for NPV due to Time value of money. Put simply a well with 100m barrels of oil that can be extracted in 5 years is significantly more valuable than the same well where extraction takes 50 years! I await the results of Heron, not criticise in the interim and will appraise my position thereafter. I suggest that others should stop embarrassing themselves and do the same!

Always interesting to read pseudo intellectual posts extrapolating imaginary figures that are at best guesstimates and then trying to apply non applicable P/E ratios etc. Sadly both rampers and trolls are engaged in this meaningless task. The reality is that we need production and a CPR such that hard numbers can be run. But the Xfactor then comes into play which is sentiment. Sentiment is illogical and defies reasonable analysis. All the valuations are based on HH but how about the IOW? Success breeds cashflow and investor confidence. On fundamentals this share was never worth a mcap of 300m. If oil is flowing at 3000 BOPD , dilution stops and we get positive IOW drilling the sp could rise significantly. However, it is a fools errand trying to model any sp at this stage. The good thing is though that the mood music has changed for the better and if the RNS news flow continues to be positive the sp will rise 1.5p, 2p , 2.5p...who knows. Like most here I would just like to get back in to profit.

This share now needs confidence to return. For that we need 2 things 1) the horizontals to flow lots of profitable oil and 2) SS to calm down and stop dilution. HH needs to provide the funding, perhaps some loans but NOT more dilution. IF this is achieved then the sp will climb in 2020.

I must admit that I pretty much lost hope here when we had a major cash raise and then nothing bought. That caused a major loss of investor confidence and this is an X factor that is hard to rebuild. The fact that UKOG used the money to buy more of the project means that we did not get the dilution that we first appeared to have. From now on it is all about rebuilding confidence. That will come from successful drilling and cashflow. Th cashflow allows modelling by professionals which in turn feeds in to P/E ratios and a hard basis for sp projection. What value a company with no money leaking money and no profits....1p . What value with 6 wells , positive cashflow and profits....? Actually depends on sentiment and view of potential success elsewhere. Thus whilst the posts here are interesting in terms of sp they are just a distraction since sentiment plays such a huge factor.

Magic puppy sadly that is not what you are doing at all. You are shorting currently and hoping to drive it down . If it does come good then you may use your shorting proceeds for the upside. Totally obvious what and who you are!

I hope that the shorters got well and truly spiked! It may make them more careful

Calamari , ok if the company goes in to liquidation but with respect these were companies trading badly. In contrast this is a world class deposit that just needs completion money for access.

I would remind people that you only make a loss when you sell. The deposit here is world class. It will get built. However, the chances are that the dilution will be massive. Personally I have placed it in the bottom drawer. The company have 6 months worth of cash and one can expect many twists and turns. The £2 party now looks very unlikely but if it does get built even with 90% dilution taking a 10 year view and including dividends most here will come out ok.

There is a massive difference here. SXX is sitting on a massive asset that is commercially very valuable. The issue is access and how to finance it.

At Uni I studied both the Euro tunnel project and the Humber Bridge. Both got built but both were plagued financially during the construction process due to poor engineering, delays and colossal budget overspend. I was therefore very cautious here and expected a similar scenario. In contrast this has been a well run show from an engineering perspective. A sound business plan with the engineering going pretty much to plan. To fail because of the state of the markets rather than because of the incompetence of the project is thus a surprise. However, the mine is solid, the jobs matter and the financial case is compelling. This will get funded and built. We may see 50% dilution or more but in 5 years time holders currently underwater will be in the black. SXX won't be your get rich quick scheme but similarly I do not believe it will beggar you. I am holding for the long term and ignoring the paper loss.

Hong Kong and Singapore have far smaller economies that the UK with us being the 5th largest in the world. Geography would dictate that they "need" to be part of China like we are told that we "need" to be part of Europe. Funny that neither of them want this. Trading with your neighbour is different to being subordinated by them. Our politicians are a disgrace mindful of the money they can be paid in Brussels (per the Kinnock family). Given their vested interest they are not trustworthy and do not want to implement the referendum. It is shameful.

People voted Brexit knowing that financially they may initially be worse off in the same way that the Scots are currently in favour of being independent despite knowing that they will be financially worse off due to the withdrawal of the tax subsidy. If you are in an abusive relationship being "better off" by leaving has little to do with money! We want a trading club with Europe. Europe want a united states of Europe where we are subordinated within . The 2 are not compatible. That is why we voted leave.

Hi Bridge my 12 year old daughter is a bit young but I will bear you in mind for the future! Your maths is out by a long way . 20m shares at 1.36p average is 270k. If it was 1% of the whole it would be 27m max but I said it was more than 1% and less than 2%. Either way a decent size but spread across a number of beneficiaries.

Hi Jimmy, good to catch up with you. Guess we must have come across each other mainly on the GFM board. My best ever holding- am currently very light. I now post on GFM on the Adfvn board. UKOG has great potential. They just now need to concentrate on drilling what they have and getting decent production and profits without dilution for the time being.

Bridge, thanks for your concern I am indeed aware of the trustee act. You may be assured that the vast bulk of the trust is in International index trackers (eg Pacific, emerging markets Europe, Japan) (have recently hedged some foreign holdings), infrastructure funds, FTSE100 and 250 trackers Bonds etc. Typical 60/40 equity/non equity split. Max 5% on Aim, Max 5% on main listed individual stocks. The individual stocks and Aim make it fun.

Hi Jimmy, I am the same person. I did not intend to "show off". There will be some here whose holdings dwarf mine. The sole reason for revealing the family holding was that I was very negative here some months ago. I wanted to show that I am no deramper but have skin in the game. I run the family portfolio/trust so not just me.

Phil, the dilution was not "always" negated by the assets purchased. He raised the cash and sat on it taking the sp down from a healthy 1.65p in the process and sending many here in to negative territory. No announcements were made as to what was being purchased. Anyway all is well that ends well and yes I do hold circa 20m shares but I never hold more than 2% in a single company. It was 1% here but I had to buy a few more more to average down to my current B/E of 1.36p. GLA

I was very annoyed earlier in the year with the constant dilution that made the share untrusted and non investable at that time. It took sometime to then do the purchases. Now we have the additional resultant assets and there have been no further cash rises trust is returning. I continue to hold circa 20m shares. My view earlier in the year was that without dilution we should be circa 2p with upside to come from horizontals. Since dilution has been negated by purchases that view has been restored. We just now need to get the planning and drill what we have.