Member Info for Sageman

Phoebus what do you think that the end of lockdown will look like? Answer less restrictions but no vaccines. Continued social distancing , video conferencing, increased working from home, less business travel. Permanently reduced oil consumption. Lucky we have our hedge and financing. By the way 3 strains to the virus. All separately catchable. So vaccine or vaccines?

More wealth destruction. The mcap continues to fall and the complete prick who came up with all this nonsense keeps taking the money and buys no shares. Utter disgrace there are some deluded rampers who say that it is not dilution because we now have more ownership ....clueless! Compare our value now with what it was before our leader decided to buy all these “valuable assets” using death spiral financing. Our mcap just falls reflecting that buying an unproven hole in the ground was not very savvy.

Kamba, did someone forget to tell you that Tullow have a $57 hedge price on a significant amount of their production at present and finance in place per previous RNS!

Should say Sp under 0.3p. This was once called the Gatwick Gusher. It would be funny if the Gatwick ****** hadn’t bled us dry!

I don’t post often. So we have 7.8bn shares, SS has none. Sp under 3p. Bugger all oil being produced, Death spiral finance and SS the great destroyer of wealth has collapsed our market cap to £22m . SS is dreadful and should be sacked. The job is to build shareholder value not destroy it. This is my bottom draw and I still hold and hope but with zero confidence.

I have been looking at trading economics website and Baltic dry Index. Makes sober reading. What people do not understand is that we are in a process. Lock downs won’t end they will ease until we get a vaccine. In the absence of a vaccine many will fear crowded places. Companies will embrace working from home. Stimulus is fine for liquidity but there is nothing to make the consumer spend.In the absence of consumer spending profits will be poor. Markets run on sentiment but eventually they run on P/E ratios and profit forecasts. The US earnings season gets properly underway next week then we will see whether the rally is built on concrete or sand.

V111jas, I have had to run all sorts of financial numbers in my life. You take a formula and insert the numbers. The problem is today we have the formulas but no numbers. In a weeks time those numbers come out thick and fast along with forward guidance. I repeat there is no time in history where the consumer has been prevented from buying and therefore no algorithms.

Actually, I am not keen on any stocks at the moment. Long term there are several bargains taking a 2 year view. Companies with strong balance sheets that will not go bust. Short erm cash and perhaps gold are kings with the market needing to absorb some very sobering numbers in the coming weeks. Tullow will survive and £1 is doable given a 2 year time horizon but short term who knows.

The point is that businesses have fixed costs and many businesses need a substantial amount of turnover to break even. Depending on the company you may find that they do not break even on the first 80% of turnover with the final 20% essentially being profit. If turnover drops by 20% in the above scenario profits fall by 100%. Don’ t shoot the messenger.

The Us jobless , you mean the 16.6m made jobless in 3 weeks? The market has reacted to potential oil deal, charitism and early stimulus. The market is yet to react to the US earnings season. There is no play list in history for shops being full of product and the consumer forced to stay at home.

Here’s hoping, I will have much more to worry about than this board we have positioned several millions of client money based on this analysis. I have shared it here shoo-in. Do as you please. At present the analysts have no data because lockdowns happened in March. The earnings season kicks off next week with Alcoa being pivotal. There will be numbers galore and forward guidance. If you think the data will be good then buy . I’m told by drs, pharmacists, the police and the army that lockdowns / public restrictions will last for months with inevitable consequences for demand. The chancellor is working on a GDP contraction of 30%....

Future truth, I do not disagree with you. Alcoa reports on the 24th, you have just over a week...!

Pad, the time to buy is at the maximum point of pessimism not stability. The issue is that the solution to the financial crisis was stimulus. We have a rise based on that stimulus a new stability. The problem is that this is not the financial crisis. This is a global collapse of consumer demand. One the numbers come in with the forward guidance the profit downgrades will create new lows. I have a small holding here but the bulk of my money is in cash. I await those new lows and will buy on panick. But FWIW I expect Tullow to be ok.

The issue is that markets work on algorithms. Every army is well equipped to fight the last war. But this is different. Until earnings season the market has no numbers to analyse. Never before has the consumer been locked up globally. Then when they are released fear will continue to constrain their actions. China is open but has few orders. Who wants a car they can’t drive? Who wants an outfit for a cancelled function? The shops are full of unsold goods. The solution is medical not financial and rises based on stimulus are not sustainable against a tsunami of dreadful corporate results and downgrades. Tullow was oversold but due to RNS will survive and with hedged production will survive. Markets will fall once Alcoa reports on the 24th . Window this week to get a tin hat.

Fine Zorro but the problem is that lots of people won’t. If just 10% of people opt out the impact is huge. Lots of companies will now encourage workers to work from home. Similarly shops are full of unsold goods and do nowt need stock so less journeys. The impact on global oil consumption is huge and long term. I am happy with my Tullow oil holdings but many of the comments here are delusional. When earnings season starts and the analysts see proper figures and forward guidance expect new market lows.

In Tesco’s results it said that they sold 70% less petrol in March . The chancellor is talking about a 30% fall in GDP. Even post lockdowns we will have restricted movement and working from home is now embedded. Who wants to get on a plane post lockdown until you have a vaccine? Tallow is strong due to RNS and hedged production but the deal is nonsense. We have a glut of oil and are running out of storage space. The cut needed to be 40%.

Ok the drill didn’t work but at least it was Premiers money not ours. 88e was always a gamble. I will bottom draw. For me this was less than 1% of portfolio. Would not bother averaging down as this increases exposure especially at this time where there are potential multi baggers everywhere. Lloyd’s, Barclays, Tullow oil, Standard Life, Aviva , Legal,and General all companies where the sp has fallen sharply. All will have a higher sp in 18 months time. GLA

After his comments yesterday he must feel like a prawn! Just hope he had a big short....lol. As I said the rise is due to the RNS.

YL , actually Sirius got taken over by AAZ at 5.5p. I had a B/e of 11p but as if by magic the AAZ sp has halved. Easy to buy the AAZ shares and still ride SXX. UKOG car crash due to death spiral financing , delays etc. Better play is Tullow. Angus, well similar to UKOG but at least Saltfleetby offers hope. The great thing though is that Bluechips have halved. Lloyd’s, Standard Life Aviva, Barclays. All will survive. No need to buy Aim for multi baggers now. But I am mainly in cash waiting.

Tomoz were you bullied at school? If so we can see why. You don’t wind people up they just see you as a contemptuous tw*t. You need to foxtrot Oscar because you are simply nauseating and embarrassing yourself.