Member Info for Sageman

Joey, an Sp relies on many things one of which is sentiment which by definition is not logical so actually many sp scenarios are possible. Scenario 1 - Shell pulls out, Saltfleetby delayed and thereafter determined non viable due to gas at 15p per therm and Balcombenon commercial having diluted the life out of the company to fund it all = sp 0.1p . Scenario 2 Saltfleetby successful on time and gas at 30-40 per therm plus good recoverability of gas = sp 4-6p. Scenario 3 as 2 but with gas at 60p per therm sp closer to 10 p, scenario 4 add in a successful Balcombe to scenarios 2-3 with oil at prices at commercial rates. I am not prepared to speculate on the sp because the variables at Balcome are too huge oil $20 -100 per barrel, production 200- 3000 +BOPD. Thus there is scope for even the most pessimistic deramper to be right and the most speculative ramper to be right. Take your pick.

Just replayed the video Lucan says “ we don’t have fancy offices in Mayfair with portraits on the wall”. Apologies I miss heard. What he said though is that he will be reducing overheads and not renewing the lease on the London office in September and that this would produce considerable sayings. He was also talking about hot desking and video conferencing. So I assume Chiswick office will go.

The office in Mayfair reference comes from the July Lucan video

Captain , I think some reading of the RNS’s would help you. They have just under £3m in cash with just over 150k to pay to Riverfort. In September they are ditching their Mayfair offices. Next year they expect £3m net profit ( conservatively from Saltfleetby) and have a guaranteed buyer. Do you get it now? Doh ! A businessman will use the cash to fund Balcombe ( loans , whatever). Am I the only person here who runs a company?

High roller with all due respect you do not understand investment. Check out the last repayment. It was from cash Lucan did not let Riverfort convert. The warrants are all about not letting Riverfort convert. Dilution is the biggest enemy we face now.

On August 24th Lucan will either let Riverfort convert below our NPV = dilution or will pay them with cash from the loan. If he does the latter he is a businessman if he does the former this is still a lifestyle company. The decision he takes will determine the investability of the company. My view is that we have sufficient cash to pay off Riverfort. Then we need to get Saltfleetby producing cashflow and only then address Balcombe. Any attempt to raise capital for Balcombe would be detrimental without the cashflow from Saltfleetby. Ideally the drill will be funded from cashflow and loans not dilution unless sp rises very strongly above NPV.

Mr Investment sadly where this company is concerned you are right. The extra complication though is our friend Billy no shares the great destroyer of wealth and fantasist ( cho, cho) Sanderson. If he believes that the so has any chance of a rise he will dilute again so you need to buy early and sell before he dilutes. Angus is now a better bet. They are paying off Riverfort using loan proceeds rather than issue shares and concentrating on cash generation from Gas. Most here just want a strategy to get there money back but it is hard when the trend is down. I now sell spikes and then buy dips. This has reduced my B/E but never enough when the trend is mercilessly down due to that walking four letter word Sanderson.

Malik, 50m mkt cap = 8p share price but your general point is valid.

Better, unlike you I have no crystal ball. I willingly admit that I do not know what the sp will be next week. Therefore I just buy in tranches at prices I feel are good value. I have not gone all in here it is circa 0.5% of my holdings. I have scope to buy more tomorrow or at any point in the future. My view is that Saltfleetby is worth up to 5p on its own taking a 12 month view so paying just over a penny is fine. The chart says 2.4p near term so I am on safe ground. But also I buy in 1m tranches and there needs to be stock available.

Another million bought at 1.1975. B/e significantly reduced today. Will trade for quick profit but happy to hold for up to 5 years. I have decided that Lucan is a businessman wanting to make money rather than an obsessed geologist on a mission wanting everyone else to fund his ego.

Better, your post started well and then lost it! Management are writing off legacy assets . Brockham will not be pursued but Balcombe will as it has flowed. They want cash flow not wildcat exploration. Complete change of culture. Shame Sanderson can’t be replaced at UKOG. With a BOD that wants to build shareholder value.

Just topped up at 1.275 following the pullback from this mornings highs. Reduces my average and is consistent with my view that prospects have changed.

Watched Lucan July video. Takeaways. Focus on gas not oil albeit happy to develop Balcombe. Focus on cash flow and profit not Wild West exploration. New management. Focus on cost reductions. Conclusion sounds like the culture has changed from lifestyle to proper commercial entity that wants to deliver financially for shareholders. Also style now is cautious rather than wild speculation and under achievement. They need luck of course but I feel much more comfortable. Another takeaway was that price of gas will be pivotal to share price.

Like most long term holders my B/E is well above current SP , mine is circa 4p. In the depths of negativity I said that the best thing was to hold and trust that Saltfleetby would happen, and it is. I said to bottom draw it and trust the new management. I don’t buy that Shell are poised for a takeover our asset is trivial for them albeit they are happy to buy the gas. We will now have solid income and thus a reduced need to dilute to fund drills and cash flow which can service borrowing. Still lots of room for ramps and decamps and for volatility. Talking about 30p at this stage leaves me cold but with planning and production 5-10p in the next 12 months is possible. That is enough upside from these levels to attract investors as is cash flow. Good luck all

Robone with Billy no shares in charge, the great diluter and destroyer of wealth this company fails every test as an investment. My strategy now is simple. Sell into any spike ( do not throw good money after bad). Then buy the inevitable dip. Rinse and repeat. In time my B/E may fall enough to exit on spike in profit. At least we now have a timetable for the next spike - September 16th. The problem is Billy does too and will probably do a fund raise...walking 4 letter word.

Mr Investment the problem is that you are talking about short term trading as opposed to investment. Yes you can trade the spike here but it is a dodgy play because the trend is down. Better to play the game with companies that are volatile where the SP is rising and the where the CEO doesn't have a dilution fetish.

Tymers the point is that others make money without needing deceit. When one deliberately misrepresents to mislead others in order to make money it is normally called fraud. You may have a small piece of change but you have no honour. A man with no honour has nothing and is nothing.

Tymers how dare you continue to post here. It is a free country but you have no shame . Please read Tymer's posting history. Always ramping for nearly 3 years . Always saying buy whilst selling himself. The SP has dropped circa 95% since Tymers started his nonsense yet he has millions of free shares!!! He still feels free to ridicule others for caution. One word...despicable.

Nine tails great post. If you read Tymers posting history it is always the same. Strong buy, same arguments. In the interim the sp has fallen very sharply. But Tymers holds 25m free shares. Tymers was telling porkies!

Tymers you despicable rogue how dare you post here? Do you have no shame to compliment your zero level of integrity. You may feel smug with your free shares. But they have been gained by lies. You tell others to buy and sell yourself. The point is we all buy and sell but there are better bets out there and we don’t need to lie and deceive. The money I have made on StandardLife makes the money you have made here from the misery of others small beer. Small beer for a small pathetic person.