Member Info for RorkesDrift

Problem is that the trial data remains confidential whilst ongoing. I think the most we are likely to get is that it is on course or delayed. He won't want to give a running commentary on that but we will have to have some sort of update before his road trip. The comment he made about updating market on second cohort is confusing the issue - either it has started or has been delayed. If there was a problem with precision (mice are different to humans) then I don't think the RNs from yesterday would have been made. Dangerous but can we assume therefore all is good with ava006.

I'm hoping that we also get a ava004 update - been on the back burner for along time. Perhaps it will be a partner but cannot bang on about affirmers and then ignore their Tx potential. Probably a resources issue but would be good to see some progress.

Partnerships will be progressing albeit slowly. Update on this would also be good. Expect the roadshow is being put together with knowledge that these questions will be asked.

Seems some history with company called arisaph. This grant description has compound based on velcade with same number.
https://grantome.com/grant/NIH/R41-CA156930-01A1

I think Andy has good reason to make statement and to withhold source. Info not public but also not sensitive if its same as I hear.

Apologies missed your post

https://patents.justia.com/patent/11065339

Interesting background - specifically mentions Velcade. Worth 2 minute read

https://patents.justia.com/patent/11065339

Think preclinical was in three different animal models - the data in the lovely graphs was mouse.

It would be possible to file IND before phase 1 had enrolled patients. Dox is existing active and the preclinical data supportive. Even if data from cohort 1 had been included (which is questionable) it would have been at 90% of active dose - maybe limited AE but maybe that's true of normal dox - I would be skeptical of xspirts overclaiming anything. I suspect AS pleased with first patient because systemic dox levels were lower than normal but that's a guess.

Study has been running awhile. I'm assuming that at least the second cohort have begun but covid is likely to have impacted on timelines. The publically available data is supportive of investment case - not risk free but heck that's why potential returns are so high. Relax, avoid making stuff up and be reassured Avacta have more than one route to RoI even without the LFD.

I've always thought it was Velcade - maybe AS mentioned it before. Odd it didn't say it in RNS.

If any of following before 1st Feb

1. Step forward on Ava004. Let's say news of clinical trial start date

2. Step forward on partnership programs - lets say another milestone payment

3. LFD sales of a substsncial amount - lets say 100% of 2020 revenue.

On top of hopefully good (great) precusion news any of the above would see us beyond ATH. They also underpin current and increasing SP - without ava6000 I still think we will return to the 110 to 120 (possibly beyond) just because of the number of shots on goal Avacta have. The LFD is small compared to rest and for me is now just a stepping stone to other DX opportunities.

I am reliably informed (usual sources, friend of his Lordship at McDs) that a certain bearded, Northern gentleman has signed off a PO for not one, not two but three new Shumpers.

Very interesting

1. Three days of roadshow. So multiple opportunities to be asked questions - guessing confident have good (possibly great) answers ready. Wonder whether he will cover which cohort in progress - said would update on second but we have passed the timing on that.

2. The RNS today was expected news - fund raise was to ensure at least one new Tx project. Therefore timing before trading update is deliberate. Any valuation of ava6000 gets multiplied by second project.

3. What does "benefits from near term revenues" actually mean?

My guess is news will increase SP and Avacta will then move to joint listing on Nasdaq. To be done once data available on Ava6000 - they have enough cash on hand.

Zendog. My understanding from Avacta communications is that their Zika LFD was rxactky as you described. The covid one looked like it was similar but at some point they changed to AB first part of it. Presumably this either improved the test, made it more consistent or cheaper. The fact the AB is not suitable for Omnicron is not end of the world and I believe the test will be adapted. Avacta didn't give a timeline - probably because unlike monkey boy and his lordship they are not sure. They hadn't finished regulation so either we start again ( testing etc) or at least go to back of Q. Hence the sentiment turning.

LFD testing for covid is a commodity market. Indeed some manufacturers have avoided due to low margins. Would have been nice but not end of world. At some point they will make a working test, get it approved and sell some. However, all put into the shade by multiple Tx opportunities.

Clip clop clip clop - just back from McDs with another set of imaginary dates?

Yep its not like GSK have anything else they could do with the money. Perhaps its because of Avacta they have made the move?

Thinking a bit more strategically the existing partners also have large cash piles and familiarity with the tech. There is also a vertical integration angle for them too.

Pot meet kettle.

I'm happy when someone raises an issue but admits they are not an expert. Through "xspirts" however....

From everything the monkey boy posts, between rounds of digestives, I conclude that he has access to Google but a very limited understanding of pharma industry in the real world. I'm going to take a stab at a contract sales rep and not a very good one. I wouldn't trust anything he says further then I'd place a special hobknob for him.

He is positive about Avacta - many on here are despite what has happened. There is no need to make stuff up - Avacta have multiple but high risk shots on goal. Live with it rather than generate the same nonsensense and then reply to yourself when none else gives a **** about what you say. Record so far is 9 posts on reply to yourself. Weird

https://www.healio.com/news/infectious-disease/20220112/biden-administration-to-send-10-million-covid19-tests-to-schools-per-month

It is not the ramping but the attitude when someone points out they are just making stuff up. They believe saying ******* with a tone of authority and certainty is fooling people. To then sausage whack someone for pointing out the nonsence is just par for the course.

Possibly but Avacta have enough cash to get through to substancial news flow. IF positive the valuations will be multiples of any value from lfd. SP will eventually reflect this - all the news this week has done is taken money from one set of short term investor and given it to a different set.

My investment has been based on Tx (albeit the lfd would extend cash runway a bit). If timelines on new variants are dependent on commercial ABs its difficult to see how Avacta leverage the benefits of affirmers - if anything completely undermines their own positioning on speed and animal free.

Yes I could have sold and bought multiple times (including all time high) but retroscope is 100% accurate. I didn't for the same reason I'm holding now. Either Avacta management will bring benefits of affirmers home or they will be forced to accept a TO - institutions have probably marked AS and chairman's card given the lfd promises and farce since.

In terms of SP before Xmas we were around 110 to 135. We didn't have a test on the market and the market was dominated by cheap but good enough. It was a commodity, volume, lowest cost producer dominated market.

The news this week doesn't really change much - IIs had probably already based valuation on minimal impact of lfds.

The inflection points that would give LTH the return they seek remain the same.

Sure some people have baled but suspect that their short term profit taking is much lower than potential that still exists. Wonder how many sold only to now be buying back in.

The investment argument remains the same. My amateur prediction is we will see a slow rise towards previous SP rather than the levels pre-covid. One drug in phase 1 trials and multiple projects with big and serious partners.

Its been said before but Avacta hasn't been an lfd investment for over a year. At some point sense will prevail despite the derampers and rampers efforts to confuse the current situation. Phase 1 remains high risk but also huge potential. I'm not investing more but have cash ready for any positive news from the company (as opposed to the made up nonsense from the usual pump and dump crew)

They will be aware of all the adverse events in one patient, partly treated with 90% of effective dose. Not sure that's any position to conclude anything about safety - anyone working in pharma at any level would know that. X-spirt or what.

I'm sure an extra tasty hobnob is in the making but if you are going to ramp at least put it on some sort of reasonable foundation.

AEs only happen if patients are enrolled. So far the company have reported one patient part way through treatment. Then nothing despite promise by CEO that dose escalation will be reported.

AEs may be reported to MHRA not RNS. Lack of public statement doesn't make the drug safe or prove no AE has well you know so why say it dies?

Suggest you refrain from making all encompassing statements based on no evidence and stop having a pop at others. Otherwise it upsets the donkey when you wave your sausage about