Member Info for RorkesDrift

Suspect the treasury have said its unaffordable to use UK tests. Good enough is good enough - strategy of living (and others dying) with the virus is an economic one not a public health one. I've given up on Avacta LFD - I believe so has AS and current SP is based on Ava006 with its risk and rewards. Based on SP reaction to Omicron news.

"We are delighted to confirm that the AffiDX® SARS-CoV-2 antigen lateral flow test detects the Omicron variant. As this variant is more infectious, it is important that it can be detected in individuals with higher loads using lateral flow tests so that its spread can be slowed down.

This would seem at odds to what has been stated for the other variants. Suspect Avacta already have a more sensitive affimer specific to omicrom but takes time to tech transfer.

Lots of treatments out there not based on mortality. If Sng can save one day in hospital per severe patient or even better stop patients having to go to hospital the NHS will think £2k (where did that come from) is a steal.

Added try being breathless, try being productive in that state, try long covid, try etc etc (is that Iggy pop I hear)

I hear the Kay's winter catalogue .....

And get well soon

Thanks for posting.

Licensing deal first LFD but looking more and more like a commodity market

Any bid will probably wait until AvA006 results. Likely to be significantly in excess of SP.

£8B is my conservative calculation - based on three precision therapies and AVA004 ready or in clinical trials. The DX is just a sweetener.

Given the quality of the data and the knowledge that application has been in awhile stating that news incoming is not a leap of genius. Stating that its been given the green light and then saying it hasn't is also a bit "weak".

We know a range of tests are going to have approval withdrawn. We know new variant coupled with Xmas snooging scares will increase demand. Regulators will have a break too. Thus fairly short time left to them.

I too have taken a wander down to McDs and a bloke down there swears we dont have long to wait. He was being genuine and unlike others has never been spectacularly wrong or be caught pumping and dumping.

Anyone fa

I think the next precision is son of velcade but I also think they won't progress this to clinical testing until they have a better feel for Ava006.

Ava004 had been timetabled to move forward pre-covid but ava006 leap frogged it and it was put on hold - I think because less favourable timelines and resources.

The conjugate space and possibly PD 1 in particular is becoming more conjested - Avacta cannot wait for ever. Without wishing to open a can of worms their choices seem to be - get some revenue, find a partner (and lose margin) or raise some money. We can paint as many pretty pictures as we like but that is where that program is. AS is a bit stumm on money coming in - covid LFD or milestones seem only significant options - no news is probably not great news.

Decision is probably waiting for Ava006 readout.

Given the marketing and multinational nature of pharma I doubt Avacta will try and go it alone with Ava006 but a positive readout will enable higher price to get paid.

I can imagine an RNS next summer (;-) ) that Avacta have signed a deal for AVA006, son of velcade and another precision drug. Milestone payments of £2Bs + 40% transfer price. Either that or someone stumps up £8B.

Oh look some tea leaves.

I'm kind of thinking Avacta are in a really really good place. They have a number projects that have moved forward substantially in 2021.

A) Leading the pack is Ava006 which has gone from animal testing to use in human clinical trials. Big individual step.

2) The project with LG hit a milestone. These are predetermined and by nature get paid when something significant occurs.

3) Deal with precision - extends use in to radioisotopes.

This is all great.

As projects move through the various stages what we know about them increases. If the projects continue then the chances of success rise. Comparatively Avacta's projects are making good progress - seriously good given we are in a pandemic, they have done well.

Some of the comments about what any small bit of news means in terms of proof it works is frankly reading the tea leaves (or is it a pump and dump?). I rate the science and hope i have someunderstanding of the risks biotech entails and thus haven't ordered another Porsche just yet.

AVA006 is in phase I. That on its own is huge. It has regulatory approval for trial use in phase I - by nature a slow and high failure rate stage. Quoting values if everything goes well is a bit "if it goes in, its a goal". We can all predict that - what is harder is valuation in light of current knowledge.

Next up will be Ava004 (pd-1) and Velcade precision. The later will be slightly derisked IF Ava004 passes through phase I. High POTENTIAL reward - shall I mention unproven, high risk.

Current share price is what the market judges the balance between the potentially high rewards and high risks. We may all take a different view but my guess is we are also either more tolerant or more unaware of risk. Interesting to see SP fairly stable in light of no news - suggests market is waiting for real news. The SP will move on that but it may be good, it may....

We continue to wait whilst radio silence from the mother ship is maintained.

Anyone fancy a cuppa?

Despite significantly ill informed and frequent requests from one customer, there are no plans for a biscuit shaped sausage. Someone is telling porkies.

I know. I don't just throw this 5h1t together. This 5h1t takes research.

I've just received another seven free in the post. Difficult to compete with that.

However, if I was holding a Xmas party for staff I would have a H&S duty of care. Argument is my company would have to buy those. Added to which is we would want to show staff that they are accurate and high quality - if they caught covid Xmas could be ruined. Don't want works do to blame.

When we get HUA (tomorrow!?) then perhaps that approach will work.

I'd also want ALL staff to test post Xmas before coming back into work

A new boomerang shaped sausage has just been delivered. Incredibly accurate and precise it actually managed to knock a fully grown man baby off his self built pedestal whilst leaving the donkey completely unscathed.

What we think is significant and what the nomad think is significant may be different.

If most countries are providing lfd free of charge I suspect Chinese tests prevail based on price. Furthermore, they need HUA. Little point producing lots of tests if your test isn't approved for that purpose.

Therefore, we may see a step up if we get HUA and a number of competitors are withdrawn (due Feb I think). The majority of the market is price led, good enough is good enough. Avacta either drive down manufacturing costs (at these volumes doesn't look promising) or focus on high risk scenarios - dentists.

In terms of gad and Abingdon - split the volume as a risk management. Standard practice. Bit worrying TT taking so long but its not clear whether they are able to sell these validation batches and thus making to demand. Not clear how many in a batch.

I'm not that excited by lfd anymore - think AS has managed to miss the goal by a mile but at the same time has kept Avactas finances in robust shape. If we had managed to beat the Chinese to market fair enough but we didn't. Chest LA vie. Who dares wins. Except when UK govt shafts them.

https://www.trinitydelta.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/AVCT-Lighthouse-211129.pdf

This is for the resident gimp who seems to want to ignore basic science in his bid for the next rich tea.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2021/nov/30/why-omicron-is-the-most-worrying-covid-variant-yet-video-explainer

in the same way we don't know if the new variant escapes recognition by vaccine dependent antibodies, we also don't know if the tests work - we can make some assumptions but they are not facts. We can hope that the 10 mutations haven't changed the S protein binding to current affimers. The stuff about the hinge was interesting and at least substantiated.

On the upside, if the s protein has changed that much then this is an opportunity for Avacta to demonstrate the speed of turn around.

Thanks for posting

Thanks for writing and posting feedback.