Bert Monro, CEO at Cora Gold gave a positive operational update at our London South East webinar. Watch the full video here.
Licensing deal first LFD but looking more and more like a commodity market
Any bid will probably wait until AvA006 results. Likely to be significantly in excess of SP.
£8B is my conservative calculation - based on three precision therapies and AVA004 ready or in clinical trials. The DX is just a sweetener.
Given the quality of the data and the knowledge that application has been in awhile stating that news incoming is not a leap of genius. Stating that its been given the green light and then saying it hasn't is also a bit "weak".
We know a range of tests are going to have approval withdrawn. We know new variant coupled with Xmas snooging scares will increase demand. Regulators will have a break too. Thus fairly short time left to them.
I too have taken a wander down to McDs and a bloke down there swears we dont have long to wait. He was being genuine and unlike others has never been spectacularly wrong or be caught pumping and dumping.
I think the next precision is son of velcade but I also think they won't progress this to clinical testing until they have a better feel for Ava006.
Ava004 had been timetabled to move forward pre-covid but ava006 leap frogged it and it was put on hold - I think because less favourable timelines and resources.
The conjugate space and possibly PD 1 in particular is becoming more conjested - Avacta cannot wait for ever. Without wishing to open a can of worms their choices seem to be - get some revenue, find a partner (and lose margin) or raise some money. We can paint as many pretty pictures as we like but that is where that program is. AS is a bit stumm on money coming in - covid LFD or milestones seem only significant options - no news is probably not great news.
Decision is probably waiting for Ava006 readout.
Given the marketing and multinational nature of pharma I doubt Avacta will try and go it alone with Ava006 but a positive readout will enable higher price to get paid.
I can imagine an RNS next summer (;-) ) that Avacta have signed a deal for AVA006, son of velcade and another precision drug. Milestone payments of £2Bs + 40% transfer price. Either that or someone stumps up £8B.
Oh look some tea leaves.
I'm kind of thinking Avacta are in a really really good place. They have a number projects that have moved forward substantially in 2021.
A) Leading the pack is Ava006 which has gone from animal testing to use in human clinical trials. Big individual step.
2) The project with LG hit a milestone. These are predetermined and by nature get paid when something significant occurs.
3) Deal with precision - extends use in to radioisotopes.
This is all great.
As projects move through the various stages what we know about them increases. If the projects continue then the chances of success rise. Comparatively Avacta's projects are making good progress - seriously good given we are in a pandemic, they have done well.
Some of the comments about what any small bit of news means in terms of proof it works is frankly reading the tea leaves (or is it a pump and dump?). I rate the science and hope i have someunderstanding of the risks biotech entails and thus haven't ordered another Porsche just yet.
AVA006 is in phase I. That on its own is huge. It has regulatory approval for trial use in phase I - by nature a slow and high failure rate stage. Quoting values if everything goes well is a bit "if it goes in, its a goal". We can all predict that - what is harder is valuation in light of current knowledge.
Next up will be Ava004 (pd-1) and Velcade precision. The later will be slightly derisked IF Ava004 passes through phase I. High POTENTIAL reward - shall I mention unproven, high risk.
Current share price is what the market judges the balance between the potentially high rewards and high risks. We may all take a different view but my guess is we are also either more tolerant or more unaware of risk. Interesting to see SP fairly stable in light of no news - suggests market is waiting for real news. The SP will move on that but it may be good, it may....
We continue to wait whilst radio silence from the mother ship is maintained.
Anyone fancy a cuppa?
I've just received another seven free in the post. Difficult to compete with that.
However, if I was holding a Xmas party for staff I would have a H&S duty of care. Argument is my company would have to buy those. Added to which is we would want to show staff that they are accurate and high quality - if they caught covid Xmas could be ruined. Don't want works do to blame.
When we get HUA (tomorrow!?) then perhaps that approach will work.
I'd also want ALL staff to test post Xmas before coming back into work
A new boomerang shaped sausage has just been delivered. Incredibly accurate and precise it actually managed to knock a fully grown man baby off his self built pedestal whilst leaving the donkey completely unscathed.
IIs and insiders hold the vast majority of shares. They are holding whilst SP bings about in response to cast iron Sept predictions and brochurgate.
I suggest bits holders who are in control and we are waiting first news over the next 12 months not the next 12 hours.
If you are confident in your analysis, have normal timescales, understand risk vs reward then who cares what juniper do. It will all come out in the wash and if anything as shorts close, demand goes up. Just not in the next 12 minutes.
So shorts take a different view to longs. Why does that ruin a market. Isn't that what a market is. You may as well say sellers are ruining it for everyone else. If it drives down SP surely that attracts more buyers
What really hacks me off though is people who refuse to buy Avacta shares at £Avacta + 10%). Selfish or what.
If most countries are providing lfd free of charge I suspect Chinese tests prevail based on price. Furthermore, they need HUA. Little point producing lots of tests if your test isn't approved for that purpose.
Therefore, we may see a step up if we get HUA and a number of competitors are withdrawn (due Feb I think). The majority of the market is price led, good enough is good enough. Avacta either drive down manufacturing costs (at these volumes doesn't look promising) or focus on high risk scenarios - dentists.
In terms of gad and Abingdon - split the volume as a risk management. Standard practice. Bit worrying TT taking so long but its not clear whether they are able to sell these validation batches and thus making to demand. Not clear how many in a batch.
I'm not that excited by lfd anymore - think AS has managed to miss the goal by a mile but at the same time has kept Avactas finances in robust shape. If we had managed to beat the Chinese to market fair enough but we didn't. Chest LA vie. Who dares wins. Except when UK govt shafts them.
This is for the resident gimp who seems to want to ignore basic science in his bid for the next rich tea.
in the same way we don't know if the new variant escapes recognition by vaccine dependent antibodies, we also don't know if the tests work - we can make some assumptions but they are not facts. We can hope that the 10 mutations haven't changed the S protein binding to current affimers. The stuff about the hinge was interesting and at least substantiated.
On the upside, if the s protein has changed that much then this is an opportunity for Avacta to demonstrate the speed of turn around.
The RNS states
"As previously announced in August 2021, the Company has begun recruiting and dosing patients for this study at several clinical trial sites in the UK, and continues to expect the dose escalation phase for this trial to complete by Q2 2022 followed by completion of the dose expansion phase around mid-2023. Enrollment in US clinical trial sites is expected to begin in early 2022."
Getting a bit desperate for a chocolate bourbon?
Now what today's new really means is that are Avacta are setting themselves up for the second part of the study. Several benefits
1. In dialogue with FDA - massive since agreement on requirements press not post data generation. Lots of drugs do euro trials only not to be approved by fda.
2. US experience (and therefore potential endorsement KOL etc) being generated now. US medical meetings are huge - they do like American clinicians to present.
3.Rapid patient recruitment - very large hospitals geared up for trials. Potential to expand into a bigger study - its a bit opaque as to what data for license will be needed since the active part of AVA006 is dox, a well documented drug. Could but be one pivotal study would be enough. Given the timings US centres are more aimed at part 2 of existing trial which I'm hoping will be expanded.
4. Confidence in press clinical data. A second significant regulator has seen the data and is suffecuently happy that the concept makes sense. They had the option to wait for part 1 readout.
5. NASDAQ listing more likely?