Adam Davidson, CEO of Trident Royalties, discusses offtake milestones and catalysts to boost FY24. Watch the video here.
Thx for posting
Thx for posting
It involves Opelia and she ends up going loopy
Oh no he doesn't
Are we playing name the pantomime dame?
Agreed. In my mind some people are buying, some are selling.
Oh hang on.....
Manufactured by whom?
My reference to patents is related to affimers
We were meant to get a widely promoted Dx update in summer. This was cancelled. Attendees reported that product launch was cancelled due to patent issues. Result we have bought two Dx companies with no synergy rather than a channel to launch affimer Dx.
Extension of trial. Compare to original timeline and the minimal amount of data emerging. Most of us hold fast but other SH are waiting for something more substantial. In meantime time and money dripping away. Not a problem until consider it mirrors how affimers were managed. On the plus side Leeds University getnlots of basic science papers published and avacta getva bulk discount on posters.
No agenda. We will get there. Probably at a discount for BP or via another dilution. Always possibility of licensing deal whic h was my most likely scenario until last week Now not so sure but I can pretend otherwise if that's what you need.
Look at the return current approach has made on the affimer IP. Value of ava6000 is not just the science but the companies ability to convert that into cash. The Dx splurge of £millions was meant to be the pivotal moment but someone forgot to check patent so now company under cash pressure of their own making. Alright to ignore SHs cause we dont know whats occuring but need to deliver or changes will happen. Just getting on with itband not boosting is not a comms strategy. However, might still deliver and not overly worrying until second half of 2024
I think they will get there but will probably be led there by the short and curlies by BP.
BP have had a look. Evidence is we can see some twittering and others buying shares. There is enough noise to capture bus dev teams attention and FAP is a hot topic.
Have they looked and don't like what they see. If they have been limited to what we know, not enough to make a call either way. The promise of a move to P2 would suggest promise is there but we are still in P1 - the two week dosing is an extension rather than the new study that was suggested.
That leaves interested but haven't jumped. Two probabilities. Putting a TO to one side the most likely deal is licensing of 3996 or their own molecule. I got the impression from the lets squeeze the word optionality in as much as possible interview , that they are pivoting to the later. Whichever, there is a benefit to the purchaser of waiting -data becomes clearer and the pressure on avacta increases.
My concern is that the company are playing Mexican stand off whilst following a program that has seen a p1 study change format several times and is taking years to complete. Whilst they do that they blow a load on a failed Dx strategy which was pulled at last minute. I look to chairman rather than AS to put right - sounding right and delivering are two different things.
Https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT04969835?tab=history&a=3#StudyPageTop
You have to look at what this p1 Pk study was designed to investigate. You would think the presentation would reflect that purpose. Said before that I believe its because nice juicy paper and a tour of scientific meetings is more of a priority, reflecting the academic ambitions. As a say look at the number of papers on affimers coming out of Leeds since Avacta have had the IP and compare it to the P&L.
My tuppence worth
1. Past performance is a good indicator of future performance. How long have they had affimers, what have they achieved
2. The chairman needs to do his job as much as AS
3. Lot of effort put into slides but came across as a one sided edited highlights. The basic pK data was missing, the number of cycles per patient missing, etcetc. Market infers what are they hiding
They keep banging on about drugs that are so toxic you cannot give them systemically. Then Novartis post well done.
I've run it through the magic calculator .....
My assumption is the University of Avacta want to keep the data - including the primary pK which was the whole point of the study, back in order to be able to publish it. Wouldn't want to be thought of as boosters or put off IIs with a high SP
In other news watching the four pom pom girls on twitter is excellent. I can almost hear the clip clop of tint hooves.....
OK I am calling an emergency meeting at McDs.
Price dropping because of what is not said - too many holes in data - hopefully AS has couple of hours to add to his script
His lordship is not a pom pom girl. More Widow Tw4nky
If you ignore the four pom pom girls and discord posts you wouldn't find many avct posts on social media.
I'd agree they do more damage than good since the messaging is based on such obvious flawed assumptions that any potential investor immediately assumes that coupled with the volume of posts there is a pump and dump going on. Thar just adds a level of caution to their thinking.
Given the effort they put in they could have a bigger impact if they stuck to facts stated by the company and put down the magic calculator. Less trips to McDs to play dress up as someone in the know would have no impact other than to remove a clear opportunity for p155 t4k3