Member Info for RorkesDrift

There is the licensing option but suitors will also probably wait for phase I. Could imagine that timing of the LG and Moderna mikestones could also affect decision. I agree a raise is a distinct possibility but maybe emphasis on bringing several products to market rather than a lack of LFD sales. Current money is not what pharma would normally consider well funded for much more than pre-launch on one program but that is softened by milestones from partners and DX potential.

I'd rather get hit with some dilution and bring five or six products from preclinical quickly. The lfd fat lady hasn't started yet albeit her plans have been scaled back. So both paths are still possible rather than certain. However, post phase 1 readout both could be beneficial to current share holders.

Thanks POD. This cut and paste from annual report

"Earnings per ordinary share
The calculation of earnings per ordinary share is based on the profit or loss for the period and the weighted average
number of equity voting shares in issue excluding own shares held jointly by the Avacta Employees’ Share Trust
and certain employees and the shares held within the Avacta Share Incentive Plan (‘SIP’).
At 31 December 2020, 22,904,846 options (2019: 10,588,313) have been excluded from the diluted weighted?average number of ordinary shares calculation because their effect would have been anti-dilutive"

Then

" 2020 2019
Loss (£000) (18,891) (15,615)
--------------- ---------------
Weighted average number of shares (number) 225,578,759 120,336,858
--------------- ---------------
--------------- -----------------

As you say £5 everyone's a winner

I'm thinking current market cap is £309M

Number of shares 225,578,759

I think there are 23M share options outstanding but the language in accounts is opaque. I cannot see excise price (and therefore cash inflow).

How much other shares / options / etc are not included in the calculation of mk cap. Presumably if we were sold tomorrow these options would be realised and dilute current shares - not complaining just trying to determine numbers in order to calculate my pot at different TO prices.

Why?

Pharma product life cycles are short - exacerbated by long R&D trials. If you have a number of products it doesn't make sense to do them in series - by the time you start the third or fourth you might be off patent, lose first mover advantage, be overtaken by better tech - whole host of stuff.

Secondly it is very very expensive to bring even one to market. It also has a high attrition rate making all your eggs in one basket unattractive.

Thus Avacta may have enough money on current burn to get to 2023 but I doubt thats the plan. Options are

1. Generate revenue via LFD
2. Secure cash and support with R&D through licensing deals (see LG and Modern a)
3. Raise more cash through placing
4. A mixture of the above

The Precision tech would seem to be key to early Tx revenue and the drug conjugates such as AVA004. Therefore results from AVA006 will be crucial to IIs being able to place a higher valuation on Avacta potential. I therefore doubt if any raise will occur before that readout happens.

If a raise does happen I think a company progressing multiple projects is a better bet than one poorly funded company pursuing just one project. Therefore a well timed fund raise might just be what the Dr ordered. The price will depend on LFD, AVA006 and updates withnLG and Moderna

I'm nicking " about as subtle as someone with Tourette’s during a minutes silence".

Well we have a new forecast - this one is 10 years and once again I hope its true.

I think what his lordship struggles with is that "peeps" don't have a problem with his opinion but rather the way he expresses it. I say this because he might enjoy a bit more of the collaborative atmosphere he says he supports if to got down from the donkey, swallowed the sausage and played nicely. PL75 posts are a response to his Lordships behaviour and thus the p155 take is self inflicted.

One of the benefits of the Board is the number of people doing research and sharing it. There will be overlap due to individuals going over the same ground over time. I'm grateful to.all research posters especially those who substantiate with links etc what they say as oppossed to just quoting what their dog overheard in McDs. If occasionally something is repeated it is vastly outweighed by the usefulness of info i had missed. I would suggest a slightly late bit of info is a lot more useful than stuff that I have posted and definitely better than your legendary timeline - have we hit point 8 of 15 yet ?(originally sept 2020).

Background:

I think Canseek is the same as precision. It has been licensed from Avacta. Seems drug as two stage targeting.

A radioligand is made of two parts: a ligand, which can find cancer cells that have a particular surface molecule, and a radioisotope, which emits therapeutic radiation to kill cancer cells. The ligand can target radiation to specific cells anywhere in the body.

The radioligand can be customised for diagnostic (imaging) or therapeutic (treatment) purposes by changing the type of radioisotope. Combining the diagnostic and treatment processes is known as theranostics.1 16 Alternatively, changing the ligand can allow targeting of different types of cancer or even other diseases.

Thus canseek ensures non "binding" compound circulates until it meets FAP where it is cleeved revealing the binding site of the radioligand - two stage targeting which presumable enables lower systemic binding and therefore higher more effective doses.

Point are interesting - they use FAP binding rather than activity as the radioligand - due to enter phase I. They have a similar PMSA compound in phase III.

Gives Avacta a second option to prove Precision concept.

Good find Timster. They changed the labelling but then the image doesn't make sense since its based on AB device. So either their Marketers don't understand how their product works or its fake. There again I'm not sure how they work either.

But it doesn't matter cause its an expensive exercise to go to an exhibition like that - shows some commitment and belief. It is a shame the exhibition material hasn't been uploaded to website.

.....

Isn't it Barbary ape?

Shame they have warned they will run out of money by end Q1 2022. Revenue up - profits down. Not an easy trick to pull off. Gross margin suffering but I guess that's due to cheap Chinese competition.

Lets see where they are next week but between there and here, finances and potential dont bear comparison.

Apologies for discussing another stock - I know alot of people are in both and Abingdon is well placed IF orders are confirmed. Too big an IF for me at moment given I think they will need to fund raise whatever happens

Close but.....

Australia came out of lock down fearing cases would go up. They actually went down.

High vaccination rates, behaviour (face masks) coupled with a coordinated test and trace. Answer is right in front of us.

Risk assessment is a variant will escape vaccination. That removes one pillar - the others will have to take the strain.

However, market is now a commodity market - population testing doesnt need highest accuracy otherwise we woukd still be doing PCR. Lowest cost producers (not price) will win. Avacta to start producing in China? Note AS comments re APAC

Majority of holders are insiders or IIs.

They don't respond to the might be news type stuff. The rise this week is a sign that the market is expecting news and the followers of a certain uberlord reacted.

If we get some real news then the reaction will dwarf the froth these guys have generated. That said I'm much happier at £1.30 than I was at £1.04 but I have to accept the SP will wander until the little red dot MrR mentions appears. Cannot trade due to FOMO but can have an entry plan lined up. Just have to chose which of basket of basket cases to chose to take a loss on and avoid putting too much free cash somewhere else. Minimise risk - sacrifice a bit of return.

:-)

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/avacta-group-lon-avct-shareholder-045252632.html

I just hit recommend MrR

Accuracy?