Member Info for RorkesDrift

Apologies - OP makes a good point and has made me pause and think. Thank you

The bit I dont get is people selling at this price after this news. Probably the most important RNS for Avacta ever. Imagine if we had been on NASDAQ

Oh hang on.....

Important to note that tumour response is being measured in the trial. Whilst tolerability is primary outcome, tumour size is a secondary outcome. The standard being used is RECIST

https://youtu.be/qeL0esW1HwE

Shorts don't make a profit until they close.....

They want to close at the lowest SP they can.

After today and the AS friends and family road trip will which way will they f/c SP moving.

Its going to be a good week (my guess)

https://investingnews.com/daily/life-science-investing/biotech-investing/top-oncology-companies/
https://www.fool.com/investing/stock-market/market-sectors/healthcare/biotech-stocks/

https://www.toptal.com/finance/valuation/biotech-valuation

https://www.sickeconomics.com/2021/07/21/clinical-stage-oncology-cancer-stocks/

https://twitter.com/downunderfutbol/status/1485908510474792965?t=UxVMqDfB7K1tGLSDWFlz-Q&s=19

This was posted last week - can see impact on tumours.

Worth looking at all tweets. Positivity backed by evidence.

I think you might not be right but really hope you are.

Current task is time find and roll out new AB. Can only take so long. At some point govts stop buying LFDs and then buyers will want to buy a test - why buy anything but the best if you want to be sure.

Be interesting to see SP impact o a new lfd RNS. 10%?

Looking at today's volune perhaps they have - profit taking by others but supply and demand takes over at some point.

Traders finding a balance then the shorts have to act. MKT cap on this tech and today's news must have have been put into the calculating machine.

Actually really interesting point. Many here will have followed avacta for ages and understand the science. The sentiment around the science has just shifted - I feel more confident today than yesterday. Third party, independent oversight says its OK to move to higher then standard dose.

The shorts have played a blinder - opened way higher than current SP even after today's news

AS is doing roadshow and timing is possibly significant. Data submitted to committee early Jan, road shows announced early Jan.

Now wider sentiment must be swinging back towards the positive. At what price will a short squeeze be in the mind of Jupiter et al. Given today's RNS unlikely for price to go as low as it has been so why wait to close. In fact they must be crapping themselves one large II decides to buy in at market rates - door is open but for how long?

Patients will receive more cycles hence market expands

The point about switching is a good one. If more cycles results in better outcomes and the health economics work out then yes there will be a switch. This trial is not looking at either but the fact that approval to dose patients at higher than the generally accepted tolerated (safe first the xspirts not xspirts) dose is significant. The decision has been made in light of the first cohorts data - great and even promising. Still on track but not over finish line just yet

Action before trial update doesn't make sense.

Biotech not on NASDAQ doesn't made sense

Company with several drug candidates and limited cash doesn't make sense

Ergo........

Agreed. I think his new PR company have sold him the roadshow idea on the basis that a good understanding of the tech will need them to commit to their own research. US IIs have better grasp of biotech and that is why early doors companies go to Nasdaq. As Avacta transition from a DX led company to a Tx led company then most sensible advisers will tell them go NASDAQ.

The valuation with precision vs without are miles apart. He has the cash to get there from milestones and last fund raise so will wait until readout.

I've been trying to value the company on the basis that precision works. It goes so far beyond either dox or velcade and those two alone get me to a conservative

$3B market x 30% market share = $1B

15% royalty = $150M revenue = $50M earnings

PE of 20 $1B market cap.

That's just two projects. Then then have a whole stable of partnerships and other opportunities. So a 5x bagger and thats the low end.

Its not a new drug coming to marker. It is a new technology. Uplifts on the above hinge on

Expanding the markers (more cycles)
Higher market share
Premium pricing

Then bringing other precision drugs through quickly

Then ava004 and all it's offshoots

Meanwhile partners are also moving forwards

Long shot is DX starts to motor but not holding my breath

So the dox read out is so crucial we continue to hold and wait. Frustrating for the rampers and derampers but bless them for trying.

Someone is hoping for biscuits

From Dr Darren Thomlinson CV

Antibiotic-resistant is of urgent global concern. NDM-1 is a capable of hydrolysing the ß-lactam ring in almost all known ß-lactam antibiotics (augmenting etc), thus conferring broad range antibiotic resistance. Few antibiotics are effective on NDM-1 expressing bacteria and resistance is quickly developing to other therapies.

Affimers have been identified that inhibit NDM-1 in a dose-dependent manner.

NDM-1 expressing strains regain antibiotic susceptibility upon treatment with Affimers.

Next program could be the use of Affimers in the development of novel NDM-1 inhibitors.

Early doors but an urgent need - therefore govt grants?

September definitely September.

Or mid summer

The update - not the lemons. The lemon thing works all year round. Well that's what I've reliably been informed.

Lot of people on this board have been here for over a year - some even longer.

The quality of comments implies many of the LTH are happy to ride out the ups and down of the SP. Looked at Tx potential and that's the big one. Does it matter what SP is today if we know the impact of the Precision trial will just change everything in a big way. Yes its a risk but most share holders get that.

Those who came in expecting to be able to trade on 10% don't like the rational stuff. Got caught out when lfd news hit and are looking to make good on their loss in short term. Making up data, making up news, pretending to be an xspirt - its all mad but aimed at rinse and repeat.

So yes SP is down - reflects current situation not last years. Yes AS over egged it - the £1.20 fund raise caught people out - I'd topped up at £1.87 when he said no raise needed - I was influenced by him. However, even I can see it was good for the company and I believe it will recover.

If I was a new investor looking at the current SP/ MKT cap, the current preclinical data and the potential I would invest and accept the risk.

If I'm a pump and dump xspirt I'll make stuff up and jump up and down when ever someone points out that I've been wrong. I'll also laugh at the 10% I make off others.

In the meantime, chill relax - things are good and IF there is a fund raise on NASDAQ it will be at a significant value above today's price. Hence I hold and await news.

If they wait until post dox then yep raise will be much higher - even above all time high. That is why I'm relaxed. My preference is buy and hold but I am just saying there is an opportunity for traders coming up and Ill give it ago. If I had no shares here I would be buying but only so much I can put in one share. The 20% I can make doing that is nowhere near the returns if dox comes up good - just cannot justify the risk above where I am now

As I say the placing price was announced here two days before the RNS. The exact price.

Companies need money to run - just cannot see where it will come from in about 12 months time. Possibly milestones but that is opaque. LFD would be fantastic but Ill need to borrow some rose tinted spectacles.

Its a hold and stash cash awaiting developments from me.

If someone had invested in his lordship recomendations how much money would they have lost in the last 12 months

A) All of it

B) Nearly all of it

C) oh hang on....

clip clop clip clop

Definitely September - I have been reliably informed. I'm still laughing. Given the number of solid leads and opinions you have posted here I'm guessing your post is just a wind up. Brilliant. Having done the same across a number of shares including claiming to have worked down a South African mine and single highhandedly run the EMEA Im still amazed at the utter b 771 X you insist is expertise just dripping gold dust to us mere mortals. Good to see you back and hope the Widow Twa nky outfit is still at the dry cleaners. Ill hold the door stage left open for you. If you are preparing for your next uber rampy pump and dump give us a sign. Monkey boy and his jaffa cakes due any moment

100% agree and they did have enough money to get them through this phase I study. Think the roadshows are about shining a spotlight - making investors aware and then FOMO but we all know positive results will see SP in multiples. He will want to have done all the ground work so he can move quickly. Can you imagine the riot if he tried to do it pre-AVA006 results!!!!!!!!!!!
So my money is waiting on sidelines (other than the huge wad i have in already). If I can get in at RNS then I will - otherwise Ill wait for the 20% discount. Would be sweet if the roashows were about getting SP up for existing investors but he is looking after the company - it ok just wish he could be more honest with PIs. String of rampy porkies to date.

Either that or someone in the new PR company said roadshows are a great idea.