Member Info for RorkesDrift

Trial has a set of criteria to prove. If all goes well and we enter next phase with established dose then the SP will respond. Suspect most of market hadn't bought into the no data must be good data. That might seem to be knocking it but actually is a rationale for making an investment now - just have to accept early phase companies are high risk.

If the trial had proven all I needed to it could be considered to be unethical to continue. Financially also reckless since time to market is critical - particularly for Avacta. My take is systemic exposure at dose 2 is low - otherwise couldn't go to dose 3. This is inline with trial hypothesis. Efficacy, pk, pd etc we don't have any data and SP response is waiting for that.

Think it was missed but a poster did say the value of a positive result goes beyond one drug - it is a whole new class really. Market isn't stupid - it just doesn't make stuff up. Accept we are all taking a punt but what a punt - Im thinking there are many POTENTIAL multi millionaires here. Some fretting - others just chillin

Timster - sensible balance. Point of trial is to determine those factors and without data then jumping to conclusions is lovely and generates warm feelings. The conversion to active dox is an important critical factor as is the rate of elimination of unconverted drug. Great news that trial continues but suspect the funds with big bucks understand the trial design and aims and await more data. In mean time the original hypothesis and investment rationale remain the same. We all know this could be massive :-)

What is meant by a common or rare adverse reaction?
The chance of having an adverse reaction can be described as:

very common – this means that 1 in every 10 people taking the medicine are likely to have the adverse reaction
common – this means that between 1 in 10 and 1 in 100 people may be affected
uncommon – this means that between 1 in 100 and 1 in 1,000 people may be affected
rare – means that between 1 in 1,000 and 1 in 10,000 people may be affected
very rare – means that fewer than 1 in 10,000 people may be affected.

To be honest I might have dreamt it but I think it was mentioned during the road trip. I'm not concerned - have to recognise patients volunteering for these trails are very unwell. The studies are trying to determine the dose to be used in studies that will examine tolerability and efficacy to a level that satisfies regulators. The numbers involved to make any claim in these areas is probably more than 3. I'm guessing there may have been more than 3 patients in 1000s of trials of potential drugs stopped.

This is a really exciting investment - it also has a long way to go. Just not sure if interpreting data (actually lack of data) in a super positive way really helps. I'm a LTH as are many here and I'm hoping for great things. I haven't felt the need to count chickens yet. The beer helps.

Think four patients in cohort 1. May have been an SAE in that group - presumably considered not drug related though

Sample size may not quite be big enough to make safety claim . Why not just apply normal standards - the MHRA type stuff - otherwise it reduces the validity of all the other good stuff. Would struggle to get regulators to say drug was safe at this point but hey what do they know

Next thing they will refuse to give us a licence despite having seven patients worth of data.

Dox is a well known drug - well known when used in current form. Otherwise we coukd apply for generic licence. Frustrating we have to go through these clinical trial hoops. Relax. Have a beer.

Safety has been proven?

Next announcement will be later than people expect. CEO was bullish as always, scientific officer far more conservative. Nothing to worry about other then normal risk;return

I'm thinking some very rich people in the city have paid some very clever people who specialise in this area of medicine to advise them. Given the size of their portfolios they essentially set the SP which will reflect their view on the potential and the risks. If the trial shows benefit that is fantastic for so many. Its a an investment many of us have taken - don't really need to paint pretty pictures or gallop around on donkey waving a sausage. Relax until trial results are out. Trying to interpret the outcome of a trial still in progress, based on selected mutterings of the shumper wearer in chief is not needed. We will get there and the investment is what it is. Huge potential. Significant risk.

Until then SP will bob along. Relax.

£1.37 here we come. That's a magic number. From there £1.87.

After that £200 ex-China

The quantative aspect of this approach is key. Rather than a yes no such as covid test, the ability time measure how much of a biomarker is present and how fast it is changing is relevant in multiple applications. E.g. sepsis and CRP. Lots of people working on it - many using ABs but there are advantages to affirmers that may yet steal the show. What the original affimer business case was built on - needs a large commercial Dx organisation to collaborate with Leeds and Avacta.

Is that the sound of donkey hooves I hear...

Clip clop clip clop...

Jive_T I get that there should be a lot of dox in the tumour. If they use systemic exposure as a dosing factor then presumably this is area under the curve not max concentration. If so, the conversion to dox in tumour will in turn lead to dox in systemic circulation.

The impact is on high tumour concentrations for any given systemic exposure. If so the max equivalent systemic dose of dox remains the same whether it is direct or via FAP conversion.

Not great at Pk or Pd so good chance I might be misinterpreting this.

I would take profits at £2.80. Then again at £6. Dependent on the news that gets us there. Can see me holding significant cash value right up until Avacta gets TO or spectacularly implodes. Hence the profit taking. Will relax when magic £1.87 is hit since that was my highest buy.

Unless there was an inadvertant Vidal Sassoon on the chart coupled with news from you know who down at the McDs sponsored donkey sanctuary.

Maybe he is baiting you?

I've just had a knock on my door. Guy with one of those picnic freezer boxes asking if I want to buy a second hand kidney. Seemed quite keen to quickly get his hands on some money.

What we really need is the return of the reverend and his legendary "if you are new to Avacta cut and paste summing up'. I have it on very good authority down at McDs that wress was asked to leave the congregation for shouting "Lord I'm coming, yes Lord I small coming" at inappropriate moments during the sermon. Whilst the enthusiasm was appreciated by many it caused Spreadsheets the donkey to buck his Lordship and that is unforgivable.

I guess so but alongside an increase in value of whole project. Won't be the last time

Look at the confidence interval. Will need a new trial.

Agreed - they moved there for good reason and at substantial cost. Painting pictures based on individual coincidences actually undermines the company fundamentals and strategy. The multi-centre trial and therefore the future of Avacta does not depend on the ability to save on cab fare to either Moor fields or Takeda HQ. The world and therefore the opportunity exists outside the London Underground network. The move will be for good reasons - its a positive vibe from the Board given Avacta cash position - I believe that is more significant.

Could you imagine if you could take something like a telephone but not only listen to what someone was saying but actually see moving pictograms of them. I hear rumour at my local flat meat dish in a bun shop that just such a device will be available mid summer or September at the latest. I got that straight from the horse looking things mouth.

Until then the only option is to up sticks and move everything to within carrier pigeon distance. Its the only thing that makes sense and everyone knows all Avactas potential partners are within earshot of the bells of St Martin