Member Info for RorkesDrift

If so then this year ebitda will be significantly below the original f/c £4.5M - break even close to latest predicted revenue?

Any thoughts on marginal profit margin over and above break even?

Not an accountant :-)

Yet still you are here....

Patients are getting much higher equivalent doses of dox is what we know. The kinetics of this we don't know but if it wasn't matching the hypothesis to some extent or another it would be unethical to continue. We don't know how many cohorts will be needed - not a bad thing just a consequence of the type of trial. I'm guessing the lower the systemic exposure to dox (a good thing) the more escalations we will see. No need to invent data or implications - its a no news is good news - no need for fantasy data especially given it doesn't seem to effect the share price. Most here rather than the widow t****y self flagellation self help group are waiting for the RNS

On telegram they are discussing how good the dose response curve is even though they only have numbers on one axis. Effective pinning the tail on the donkey just where it looks best and clapping enthusiastically.

No doubt someone will post it on here and get all upset when their error is pointed out.

In other news I hear there is a shortage of widow t****y outfits

Agreed. Depends how they treat sales to consumers through the website. Commission handled different to margin as you say. Sounds like a question for the next investor meeting.

The annual report does provide some financials so impact of different growth rates in different divisions could explain drop in margin too.

Also help with NASDAQ fund raise

There are lots of drugs that undergo some form of in vivo transformation in order to produce the biologically active molecule. I am led to believe this is covered in most pharmacology 101 courses.

Traditionally we talk about the efficacy of the compound that is administered rather than the metabolite and indeed that is why most prodrugs need their own regulatory submission even if they exert their "efficacy" through the actions of a known metabolite. Most people working in health and pharma would understand the context of efficacy in this context. Over and above that a pseudo intellectual debate is a distraction

Oh hang on.....

Our valuations as PI are based on the information we have. This is considerably less than IIs. The idea that we have seen some unique way of valuing a share doesn't hold water - denying that an asset is worth what someone is willing to pay doesn't make sense. Very very few here have both the expertise in environmental science and the cosmetic industry to perform a meaningful future valuation - the market as a whole including large IIs are better placed.

What I suspect differs is our assessment of risk. We are willing to take a bigger risk than others and bide our time. The market has an average has decided current SP is the right price at which return and risk are balanced. Us shareholders just differ and are taking a punt.

I hope for my sake it pays off

Our subjects need to self enhance has two clear elements. The first, routed in his own over estimate of his intellect as been derailed by the second - the thwarted attempt to demean others and control the external dialogue

This has resulted in an internal conflict where the strong self enhancing voice is challenged by the ever present doubting one. This lowers rather than raises self esteem and brings back past, troubling memories. The subject resorts to child hood responses and lashed out on what can only be called a tantrum.

Classic lordship. Shown to be talking nonsense but cannot find a way of accepting it and/or recognize that others have a better handle of reality. I think he is aware of this problem and ponders on it but the internal dialogue telling him that his value is he must be clever is over riding everything else. Manageable but only just by the sounds of it at Glaxo but now there is no brake and the spiral of self reinforcing, self deluding belief in order to prop up an ego damaged by his own experience is now becoming sad rather then funny.

Find someone who can help. You can be a better person.

Here is some content.

The tendency toward unrealistically optimistic self-serving biases, known as trait self-enhancement, has been associated with both adaptive benefits and negative social consequences.

Self-enhancement can occur in a variety of ways. A few examples include exaggerating one's virtues, claiming that one's successes are a reflection of ability whereas failures are due to external circumstances, or preferentially remembering positive rather than negative information about oneself.

When our need for validation of our own actions, words, behavior, attitudes, and even physical appearance become borderline obsessive, then we’ve crossed over into an unhealthy yearning for recognition. We are looking in the outside world for what we cannot find in our own interior world.

Phew. Glad to see you have caught up with the rest of us at last.

Good effort and I'm guessing you reflected on the need for the first paragraph and decided to go with it anyway.

If it helps the rest of it makes you appear very very clever. Don't let anyone tell you any different.

I'm thinking someone who knows that the trial protocol is published on clinicaltrials.gov could write 95% of the expert opinion his lordship so generously supplies. The difficult bit would be adopting the tone linked to a pathological need to appear to the only opinion worth considering. Most of what is written seems tbe be his lordship telling his lordship what a clever boy he is. Mostly harmless except when he bursts his own bubble but getting it spectacularly wrong. Then the fantasy implodes on itself and rather than reflect and have any sort old self awareness, the Madam T****y alter ego appears, Spreadsheets the donkey is mounted and a trip to the butchers for an extra big helping of sausage is a must. Strange bloke but a interesting case study. Won't say too much because I think the condition feeds of attention and probably delays the individual seeking the help they need to calm the voices.

Wow. His lordship seems to be in a dark place and lashing out for no need. Recent posts have been limited to his opinion with no need to have a pop at others and board been all the better for it.

Wonder why he wants to drag it back down and have everyone Neel before him. Look at me don't look at me. Attention seeking of a child.

I'll wait for the standard comments but really hoping someone with all his BTECs can come up with something new even if its not funny. Make my day.

The only widely available and current valuation of the database is the one reflected by the share price. So not £100M.

I'm thinking private equity will take the asset for significantly less than it COULD be worth but more than its valued now and will be supported by the board all of whom remain employed. Everyone wins to some extent but the unicorn moves house so the current investors looking for the rainbow will be disappointed. On the plus side MW will then be fully funded, able to buy microsaic and in a position to reap the rewards of investment and work to date.

Still lots of assumptions and annual report is a case of too many trees. However, it dies gives visibility on different parts.

Company seems to be in those difficult teenage years. Need to speculate etc but the investment return isn't quick. One sign its working is just the size of deals in pipeline.

P&L, balance sheet, cash flow reveals more than is written so interims and full year first 2022 are going to show if the hotch potch model is working. Company seems to be more open about specifics but skin trust club numbers will become clearer. If as exciting as we are led to believe we may see new model but worried it could get spun off to someone else to make a killing.

Gross margin was 57% last year. The lower margin STC (retail sales) will impact on that but not significantly during H1. However, if growth is as predicted it will influence more and more albeit alongside increasing revenue and total gross profit.

Overhead has gone up. We don't know by how much but workforce and marketing costs can be infered to be significant.

Last year saw significant amortisation and impairment impact on net profit due to intangible assets. Not clear whether these will be repeates but accounted for £3.2M last year.

Brokers were saying £4.5M this year on sales of £24M. If gross margin is 50% then we can fc a loss of £3m gross. If overhead is the same (in not related to sales volumes) then net profit is £1.5M. However unlikely overhead has grown at same rate as overhead so I'm going with £2.2M - applying a growing earnings model a PE of 30 gives us a company looking at market cap of close to £60-£70M

Needs growth to be maintained for three years. Big assumption. Worth the ride at these levels

I'd like to see how you calculate sales of <£1M (STC) to be a valuation of £100M.

I get its early doors and who knows it might hit that eventually but an idea of your assumptions would help inform where this pereceived value is coming from.

Do we know if the STC sales include selling products and if so at what margin - are we moving towards a whole lot of competency requirements associated with a e-retail business.

MW is the driving force at present. The order pipeline seems rich at one end but limited info on what will hit 2022 and what hits 2023 especially given this stuff isn't off the shelf. Might be approaching point where anything confirmed now will not get invoiced until next year but that isn't aclnoweldeged in the numbers.

Growth though is looking good - hope investment in new staff providers bumper H1 next year - this year is better than last but tipping points not yet reached

No guidance on order timing + declining margin = spooked. Assumptions being made about cash requirements.

Growth is key message here but opaque.

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