Member Info for RorkesDrift

https://ukinvestormagazine.co.uk/avacta-shares-are-now-on-the-verge-of-ftse-aim-greatness/

Will be interesting to see SP develop

1. As science day approaches
2. After science day (maybe news from other programs too)
3. Mid summer on completion of next cohorts

I'm thinking IF we sign licensing deal it will be for dox. Commercially and financially (same thing) matches avacta capability and marketing muscle.

Science day was announced before current cohort. I suspect it is more about creating understanding and context for the multiple programs Avacta have ongoing. Therefore not just about the dox trial and I suspect the timing is more about the other stuff. Trial is P1 - so if great news it will reduce the risk return balance - at that point I'll top slice and ride in on what will be a bigger pot than I have now. We should know next week if AS knows what early Jan means

Oh hang on....

The global aptamer market was worth $2.4bn (£2.0bn) last year and is forecast to rake in annual revenues of $11.5bn by 2030, according to the market research firm Fact.MR.

Segment by product fails marketing 101 but does indicate size of market for solutions to the need to recognise target molecules

Schrodingers cat until January and even then will depend on what data actually is. If it "definitely" works then SP would have responded. It definitely doesn't work - same thing. Either we are all going to make a lot of money starting with some of that in Jan or we are not. Pretending there is clarity in the fog and painting pictures is either deluding yourself or trying to delude others. I have confidence in the tech and have a lot here but I'm also happy to wait before telling everyone of facts that just are not. Sorry. If you need a number it is and always has been £200 (exChina)

Have to compare apples with apples. Avacta is SP likely to go up when a licensing deal complete with milestones is achieved but current Market Cap is without such a deal in place. Thinking avacta is currently valued higher than the £50M paid but you would expect that given their portfolio of IP and that the other company was a fire sale. Not sure the comparison sheds any light on what we already know but if you squint your eyes, cross your fingers and click your heels I'm sure you can come up with a valuation different to either the market or turnip and no hope

£50M

Couple of things possibly concerning the wider market.

1. If avacta have a acquisition strategy they are probably underfunded to see that and the therapeutic program through.

2. P1 might take longer than originally planned - possibly cause the stuff is so good then more cohorts will be needed. This puts off the news the sends the SP one way or the other.

Interesting that this vacation by people with an inside track to AS is lower than many of the ramptastic numbers here. However, I think of it more as a ladder - the news that gets us to 220+ is also the news that supports licensing and cash coming in.

My bet is they will licence two products out at the same time and not keep AVA6000 in house. Lots of reasons but speed and marketing clout being the main ones

Clovis sold for £50M. Milestones attached to future events which in themselves create a more valuable asset. If those things don't happen then write off £50M. Simple maths.

Putting MTD aside if there is a dose response curve it is in everyone's interest that this is identified before phase 1b - long term profits and hence SP linked to optimum dose.

On the other hand maybe multiple doses can compensate for below maximum dose dosing.

Doubt we will see max RoI for share holders this side of Xmas but get people might want to top slice prior to £200 ex-China

Well odds are 2.1 on Takeda, 3.1 on Novartis / Sandon, 4.1 on GSK and odds on it being someone else.

Could go for an accumulator with which quarter the first Precision deal signed and how big to the nearest £5M will be the next milestone payment

As someone pointed out Trinity are the broker. Their valuation is based on the first two products being licensed out. Despite what AS said.

AS has stated the company aim to licence one of the Precision drugs.

Whilst it is quiet prior to interims would be interested to see which company the board feels it will be. Might not be announced for awhile and I suspect is dependent of P1 results which are yet to be determined.

I am going with Novartis / Sandoz

No worries. Not the first time this debate has been had and won't be the last.

Ultra orphan drugs have an even worse problem trying to demonstrate statistics when there are such few patients.

The avacta regulatory team seem quite adept and maybe they were key influence in moving to a fourth dose. That data combined with expert opinion might be key to securing merged phase 1 and 2 data. Has you say dox is a well known drug as is the link between systemic exposure and cardiac toxicity

Which experimental drug would you choose. There are lots of them. Take one and you lose the opportunity to take a different one. Both are well tolerated but only one works and that's if you take it in a PR.

Can I suggest you do some research on why clinical trials exist and the drugs that fail phase 3 trials. It is sad and desperate that the approach results in delays but will patients be better off if we launch drugs on the market on the basis of no alternative. What happens when a second drug that works on rats comes along - do you launch that one despite an existing treatment.

My own thoughts is the points made do support an accelerated program - merger of phase 2 and 3. They also support compassionate use once trials complete and we wait approval. First step though is for the company to release phase 1 results.

I suspect performing well in rats is not the hurdle we need to get over in order to satisfy regulators. Fail rate of drugs that get that far is significant. Regulators have a job to protect people especially those who struggle with science - I'm guessing Touks was buying Domestos and a do it yourself infusion kit during the pandemic.

Great to see information on trial success released here rather than RNS though

I agree too. I have this untested quack juice I'm trying to sell but cannot get past these pesky regulators who insist I prove it works and is tolerated. No wonder the UK pharmaceutical industry is so small.

Company licensing two drugs might benefit from a synergistic impact on sales. Create precision brand and acceptance with first but less valuable. Creates platform for launch of second which also benefits from shared promotional costs. Overall net profit greater.

I'm thinking it won't be Takeda.