Member Info for redwineday

LWHL

"I do not think they will ever return the SP to ATH's, or even 400p levels, but 2022 prices would represent a 5-bagger from here.

But you have to accept that risks to the downside also exist, even right now, which I am comfortable with, personally. GLA."

£1.00 was the float price and acquisition price of monks and mighty hive, so difficult to imagine the founders would accept anything less than this and i exclude the various PDMR purchases that happened at a far higher level. During their growth spurt I believe most of the combinations were made at a level around the £4 mark, so many senior employees will have a their paper valued in their own minds at £4. Seems to me that between these 2 numbers would be the minimum that insiders here including SMS would be sellers at. If I were them or him my target would be to get north of £2 and then look for an exit.

Cracking piece of journalism Eye roll.

. Phone up rival CEO, ask him to trash a competitor. Print what he days. Ends.

Super investigative stuff!!

Interesting. This one of the more lucid interview and answers of late. His comments on his own business is quite illuminating. Obviously the desire to increase scale is still there.

May be wishful thinking but I think the ship is turning around here. SFOR has the potential to be another RR in terms of top to bottom and back to top (ok not £8 but 2-3 is certainly possible).

Would be nice to hear some green shoots/optimism talk on the 15th.

RSA govt needs to get its act together regarding changing the law to stop the green lobby hijacking the countries future through the courts. Greenpeace et al are happy to deny RSA cheap energy when you literally have people living there in huts/squalor and coping with rolling blackouts. Madness...

IJWT

Why would Total be interested when they have previously walked away?

Surely more likely to be a heavy oil player with an interest is supply US refineries.

Ex employee is my guess. He cant troll Sorrel directly otherwise he would by facing a law suit so he is on here in a poor substitution.

Lse2000 - I know Martin didn't rate you but I'm sure your Mum still loves you...

Thunder

" Also if FID is granted prior to license expiry, surely that crystallises unitisation for ECO? "

I just re-read the contract, you can find it here https://dpi.gov.gy/petroleum-agreement-between-the-government-of-the-cooperative-republic-of-guyana-and-tullow-guyana-b-v-and-eco-atlantic-guyana-inc/

Difficult to say with complete certainty but I think you are likely to be correct but I would say it would be dependant on a unitisation agreement rather than the FID. If I am right then Exxon would have the upper

I think the key is Jethro. To my reading of the contract this discovery would be protected for ECO post licence expiration. So it seems to me the economics of a farm in are tied to the economics of Jethro.

Honestly guys, isn't it naive to think that Exxon will do anything other than wait until the 13th of January for the licence to expire, then bid on it to secure 100% of Hammerhead? Similarly why would the Govt of Guyana help Eco out if they can have Exxon or another major buy into an Orinduick licence?

Simple fact of the matter is Eco have not fulfilled their side of the bargain and no -one owes them anything. To believe or hope something else will transpire seems far fetched to me.

*all in GBP

From what I can see WPP generate around 130k of sales per employee and 21k of ebitda and I would imagine Publicis is even more efficient per employee.

Some serious cost control required at S4

This type of monetisation of in car data has been going on for years.

There was a scandal in the US a few years back when it became know that manufacturers were selling data on their customers driving habits to insurance companies.

It might be because I'm too old but the last then I want when i'm in my car is the constant bombardment of always on life hitting me in one of the few quiet zones I can control on my own terms. It's a terrible idea!

Interesting to play with some numbers whilst bored.

I don't know what there average employee cost is but it cant be much less than £50k per head and given the top heavy management chart probably quite a bit more. In terms of revenue, each employee is generating c110k worth of sales and 11k worth of ebitda. You spend 50, sell 110 and get 10 back. In other words the efficiency of each employee is terrible, If these numbers are roughly correct then you take 1000 employees out, you are 40 better off if you lose the average level of profit generated by each one. This is unlikely as presumably you'd keep the profit generators and bin the deadwood.

The fact that each employee in S4 is worth less than £18k in market cap says so much.

Really is about time the BOD put their hands in their pockets or sent some other signal.

What pi***s me off about Sorrel is that amount of time he spends giving interviews concerning everything but his own companys future. I've no doubt H1 will be another set of garbage so its really time for him to explain how he is going to manage this business for profit in the future rather than telling us what we know, that his tech clients have gone bye bye....

Martin may decide that the fact it's so undervalued it is preventing him from doing any deals because of the market valuation.

That would be take a bit of financing. EV is c 320m plus a premium for the equity, say 20p then he'd need to raise c 450m. Seems a lot for a business that has losing money and is barely fcf positive. If it were easy he would have done it by now.

Bottom line is he needs to grow his way out of the current situation or cut costs a lot. As has been mentioned before he hasn't done the latter so must presumably believe he can do the former.

BBOX is a play on the interest rate outlook and as further rate cuts are getting pushed back, if cut at all , then the market is saying the current yield isn't attractive enough vs the alternatives.

Personally I am thankful he does have a golden share otherwise this would have been taken out at some ridiculously low level.

My final point and then I'll shut up. If S4 Capital wanted to make it clear that they had some beneficial interest in all of these invested companies then I think they would be broadcasting it rather than having it set up in such a way as they have.

Its common practice for such companies to be set up for many reasons other than as investments. Being a shareholder is not same as having a beneficial interest, in this case, in the fund below and there is no visibility on the remuneration if any from the fund to S4S. Depending on the money flow there would be no need for the plc to report S4S if it's not material.

The only thing clear is that S4 is not a direct investor in the fund but some of its employees and directors are. Everything else is supposition.

From the Stanhope Capital website

S4S will be led by Sanja Partalo, a highly experienced digital industry specialist and investor who was formerly Global Head of Strategic Development and Partnerships at WPP. S4Capital, the tech-led, new age/new era digital advertising and marketing services company established by Sir Martin Sorrell, and Stanhope Capital Group, the global investment firm with $30 billion under management founded by Daniel Pinto, as founders of the fund will act as part of the General Partner. Daniel Pinto and Sir Martin Sorrell will also sit on its investment committee. Founders of S4Capital and Stanhope Capital Group will be investing in the fund, but not S4Capital itself.

The last sentence is the relevant one and seems to support what I suggested below. I don't see how S4 Capital can be a beneficiary if it's not investing. The S4 directors and executives directors however....