Member Info for redwineday

GoCPI

Agree it's no issue to fund from current cashflows. My point was less debt now means you can take on more when the outlook changes for deal making. He needs to ge the SP up to level where others would be happy to sell to him. Granted that probably has to be around the £2 mark, so its a long way in the distance.

If you are looking for someone to blame here (apart from oneself for investing in the first place) the place to look is Martin Sorrell and his exec team.

All eggs place in the tech basket

Operational howlers, such as accounts delayed and ongoing forecasting misses (3 years now ffs)

Unwillingness to cut costs deeper and sooner than was/is required. The company has far too many employees for the revenue and profit. The latest example of this is to target 65% of costs to revenue as per the holdco's. He needs to wake up the fact he isn't king of the jungle and comparing yourself to WPP or whoever isn't the way to get investors back in your side. Where is the new business model he promises?

Making pointless gestures like a 1p dividend when he has too much debt and too many shares in circulation.

As I say you don't need to look far issues that perhaps someone less connected to the past would have sorted by now.

My guess is he thinks when the macro situation improves or tech companies start to spend again he can start to grow. Problem is this could be years away and a lot can hapen in between times. We need bold action now.

On the other hand if they had an extension they would be obliged and would want to put that into the market as soon as.

My feeling is if there is genuinely a farmee interested they would need to go to the govt with a drill date to secure the extension as well asking for consent for the transaction. Possibly triangulating all of that is why there is no news. The question is, is there anyone interested with th cash and willingness.

I believe they can wait until the last day before issuing the RNS. Since the market already knows the date their obligation would to be inform if something other than that changes so I don't take no news as good news, I take no news as no change.

We are owed a positive surprise for the patience alone.

FWIW Chat GPT gives 3b/4b a 40-60% chance of drilling but in 2027.

Hammerhead I think you are right, unitization will be required but only after arbitration, could take a long time, and of course the amount is open to the same arbitration process. Similarly if the block is licensed to another company the Joe and Jethro would be protected for Eco thereby reducing the attraction of the block for a third party.

Harel

What’s your logic for still being invested? From what you describe which seems likely on the money to me why are you ready to take a risk on what seem both tone becoming long shots?

Genuine question. Interested to know how you rationalise this.

Joe/Jethro commerciality

Creatious

Canje

JHL

Solar

Gazania

Total exit/ Tullow exit

Orinduick farm out

Namibia Farm out

3b/4b Farm out

AO exit stake

Orinduick Farm out - again

Lunn exit stake

Granted there are some things here that are out of ECO's control but there are many that are. Bets that have not been delivered or errors of judgement that were outright mistakes or knee jerk reactions to "do something". Not many CEO's would survive this list of misses.

This share is really a bet on hope vs experience.

Here is the explanation for the Lunn Trust (based in Capetown) selling down at all time lows.

* RSA govt.

I do laugh at the term non-profit. Gravy train for hypocrites would be more accurate. How these people square the poverty of Africa with their blocking of wealth flowing to the continent must require a mental contortion of massive proportions or more likely my morals are more important than the heath of the people I say I represent (unelected at that) attitude.

RSA gives needs to wake up quickly. Unfortunately also unlikely.

Hoping to see SMS and the other directors exhibit the same confidence. I appreciate SMS and Daniel Pinto already have a lot of money tied up here but another 1m shares would add another 2 or 3p and who is a minimal cost for men of their means!

Investors Chronicle, a sure fire contra indicator.

Discussion perhaps however If they were in litigation this would require an RNS. What must be sure is that Exxon will have included an assumption regarding any cost in their FID.

All their previous deals were done at 50% cash 50% shares. Way to look at this is as far as this merger goes there would be no need for a future write down in at todays SP.

They provide an appendix in the quarterly presentations that show how many share have still to be issued. For 2025 the total number is 58m. As far as I can see 19m issued so far. Given this is a know then theoretically this issuance should already be priced in.

Existing discoveries are "protected" in the event of a licence change, so any future activity on J&J would still be to Eco's benefit even after the expiry of the licence. On Hammerhead. Where are people getting 10% of HH on Orinduick from? 3-8% is the best estimate I can find. online. The gov would adjudicate on any dispute on what is the correct number based on technical appraisals. God knows how long this process would take. Probably up to first drill. Exxon would have no reason to rush.

My expectation is that we will shortly see an RNS informing the market that Orinduick licence has been given up and some blah blah about the above points. To think otherwise is a delusion, there can legally be no extension. I suppose the govt could re-issue it if they have a partner but we would surely know this by now. The best hope we have is they can announce a sale to XOM of their rights in HH for X million. For reasons I explained a while back I think the X would be around $30m.

If we simply lose the licence then surely Gil's position would be untenable.

Can't remember where I got this but I recall seeing SMS average as £1.40

"XOM plays by the rules"

What are you smoking down at Aces Bar? Whatever it is please send me some as I need some relief watching this old nag.

Disappointing reaction from Mr Market and a sad reflection on the LSE. 16k boe a day from September and the commensurate cashflow visibility into 2026 not to mention the future drills and zero response in the SP. Kistos guys must be thinking what do they need to do.

And yet the SP refuses to budge. I'm guessing the Lunn trust continues to unload. Why no block sale?

If this was such a stick on surely there would be an institution ready to take the lot at 7p.