Member Info for redwineday

And yet the SP refuses to budge. I'm guessing the Lunn trust continues to unload. Why no block sale?

If this was such a stick on surely there would be an institution ready to take the lot at 7p.

Directors?

Must be the Moodies downgrade lol

If they can turn this into a SaaS model then this can only be good. Asset light business with recurring revenues, what's not to like?

Auson

They don't split out Japan but in 2024 APAC was 6% of revenue. So if rev this year is c 800m, then APAC is 48m. Lets say Japan is 20% 10m and the margin is 11%, I'm being generous in assuming this as I'd wager Japan is a lot lower than the average but even then you're looking at no more 1m adjusted EBITDA. The profit number will certainly be negative.

My point is it's not worth the bother. This is a small company with too much overhead. It's simply grandiose to think that they need to be everywhere when the numbers are so bad. Shrink to grow...Obviously I'm guessing but the I imagine bottom line would be better if they forget about Japan and APAC for that matter.

The market simply doesn't believe, and has no reason to tbf, Gil is capable of delivering. Even appreciating he is the founder here, if it weren't for the hand picked board he'd be long gone. I invite you to contemplate previous pronouncements on

Joe Jethro heavy oil commerciality

Millions gone in Solar energy brainstorm investment and investment in JHI/Canjie

Constant jam tomorrow Guyana data rooms and farm in talks. All before the end of the qtr/year or some other indeterminate amount of time. Now repeating with Namibia

To be fair a junior E&P relies in it Chief exec to be selling the story but at the end if they can't deliver then someone else should have a go. Eco has too many assets sitting doing nothing for shareholders, Gil included. It's time the BOD found themselves a CEO who is capable of should be monetising the assets. We saw from AO's valuation in the purchase of the 1% 3b/4b stake, that this asset worth far more than the current MCap.

Ad agency sickness still alive in an AI world. Have you ever seen so many made up titles, EVP of this, MD of that , Global head of the other, chief of whatever. its all yada yada. He should be firing suits until he gets to 20% margin because it seems he can't do it on growing revenue. Seriously, what is the point of all these managers other than to mange paperclips and each other if they cant grow the business? I thought Sorrell was a tough cookie....

I guess "gives away" doesn't sound so good.

Nige

Time flies mate, particularly so holding on here....

You answered your own question!

I seem to remember him saying in an interview he thought the right valuation was 10 x EBITDA less the debt. I think he actually may have said 9-10x. So using 8 and debt at 140 I guess he thinks the right price is 80m x 9 -140m /632m shares =91p per share.

That was around six months ago though and we have 2 further rev declines forecast, nevertheless I would guess that plus a premium is his target to retire...

As a LTH S4 continues to be along haul wait.

I don't read anything here that would be unexpected for the market in terms of the numbers. No surprises either way. What I do read is a slightly more optimistic tone in the commentary regarding client wins and interest in their AI tools.

How the SP reacts who knows, I expect by the end the week we will be at the level of Fridays close with some huffing and puffing in between.

Well, it's the same presentation every time. Let's see if he comes across well on Monday...

When I said liabilities I didn't mean the financial kind. When you business is dependent on the, lets be kind, largesse of the state and the state requires you keep the locals employed no matter what and then demands 60% of what's left over in a market that has/is collapsing then a bet here is exactly that.

Of course you might double your money or more if you're lucky. On the other hand you could put your money on a donkey at the races this weekend and get better odds.

Why this company is allowed to be listed is a mystery and a reflection of the state of the London market.

Anyway, good luck!

I’d take the money whilst the oil is in ground, that’s for sure.

Whilst digging around on this I was interested to read that any dispute over the unitisation will be arbitrated by the govt. I can’t imagine a FID being authorised by Exxon without this matter being settled so if the FID is still on course for this year then we should have this question answered at the same time.

Not long to wait I think for at least one of the catalysts to fall into place.

15% takes your 600m back to 100. Using my 10 bucks net would get you to c 30m, which seems about right to me.

H2 cashflow should be v strong. I'm anticipating net debt position to be significantly improved by year end. Most notable comment though is is the Phase V wells starting up this year. Not sure this was previously known, at least it wasn't by me).

Surely the SP here should now start to reflect the future cashflow generation.

Chat GPT tells me majors would apply a hurdle rate of 12-15% in Guyana.

It's not about the market cap. Its about the liabilities that come with owning a big hole in the ground that runs as a social enterprise for the locals and the management.