Member Info for redwineday

At the time or shortly after the Stagwell approach the number SMS mentioned as an appropriate valuation was 9x earnings which would be c £1.10 ish. ex any premium.

Short squeeze coming Monday

Over 8m trades. Can't all be on the back of WPP?

Exactly this. No way a business this size needs 7000 people so one can only assume he thinks a corner will be turned soon enough. I am sure that if it's not apparent by the end of Q3 you'll see cost reductions..

Even if you are right they are not powerless. They employ 7k people and a lot of them will be expensive. Kill 1000 thousand positions and at 50k per head employer cost you're saving 50m on an FY basis. If they are not growing revenue then he'll be focusing on margin.

I assume the hearing must have beed delayed as I would have thought an RNS would be mandatory in the circumstances.

Both of these linked in pieces have an agenda and in one case it's clearly a personal agenda (he has made a lot of enemies in his time). Thats not to say that they don't have points which are with hindsight correct but the question here is do you write SMS and his ability to recover? Time will tell but right now I wouldn't take that bet. This company has an EV of 314m with a fwd PE of 5 in a sector that would traditionally trade around 10 and that assumes flat revenue. Price to sales is 0.2!!

Unless this business is a complete write off then the piece today is a fraction of what it has the potential to be. Even in the scenario the revue doesn't eventually pick up they will surely cut costs to get the margin back towards 20%, which in itself would make the valuation today a quarter of what it should be.

Slowly sinking. Back to 7p as I'm guessing Lunn Trust will be selling out their entire stake.

I noticed in their call they stand Tech client spend has levelled off. Basically flat, which if repeated would be a positive for S4!

According to the AGM circular the court hearing should be taking place today. I would expect an announcement on the outcome by COB or tomorrow. Wonder if we will see any details on what's to follow.

Sorry my mistake, no warrants - brain fade...

strange time for them to be selling down tho'

History of it is here

https://www.offshore-energy.biz/eco-seals-deal-to-increase-stake-in-block-off-south-africa/

I'd imagine they must still be sitting on the warrants

Guess the main issue would be the likely future capex costs assumed in any deal and the associated increase in risk. Would the cashew be strong enough for Kistos on it own to justify this?

Tell you what. i'll refrain from making obvious points if you refrain from baseless speculation.

Oh to be a market maker.

QED

I could imagine once the tax dispute in NL is settled they will exit. Burning management time on zero (or worse) return doesn't make any sense.

Averaging down like the rest of us.

Thing about PIs is and include myself in this, is they see what they want to see and ignore what’s in front of their face when it doesn’t fit with their own narrative or dreams.

Eco is now only about 3b/4b and everything else is a moonshot. To think otherwise is borderline delusional. BTW I hope I have to eat my words but I doubt it.

The simple question here is can S4 pivot away from tech companies as given their capex binging I don't see them returning anytime soon. Revenue growth is the only way this is turning around.