Member Info for redwineday

2 completely different things. One major vs another in a contractual dispute heard at international arbitration. Guyana get their royalties whoever pumps it. Exxon who actually need to just wait for the licence to expire.

Can the licence be extended, well the terms are quite clear in saying no but of course it's a government so they can do what they want but Eco are a fly and Exxon is an elephant.

That might be no bad thing. I'd argue that the current SP is a reflection of lack of confidence.

Apropos Guyana , my assumption is they are hoping for a timing for 3b/4b before the end of this year and then announce the loss of the Orinduick licence at the same time. It seems highly unlikely to me that they can pull something out of that hat with only six months to go when they have been trying for 18 months. If indeed they have had 9 or 10 companies in the data room and we still have silence then that speaks volumes. On Hammerhead Exxon have much to gain by encouraging the lapse of the licence.

400k trade

What this article misses is Sorrell's golden share. If he believes that the market is undervaluing S4 why would he agree to any buy in at a price less than his valuation. In this I think the founders will be aligned with him. Everyone has a price but given the float price it surely has to be north of there. MBO, possibly but the funding of it with a PE dilution might also be difficult.

I think they will plug away until the revenue picks up, the share rerates and then look for a merger.

What's for sure, with only 6 months to go, an RNS one way or another must be due soon

Just re-read the licence t&c's.

From what I read there is no opportunity to extend beyond Jan 2026. The option to extend, relinquishing parts of the licence , can only be used pre the second renewal which has already happened. There is a provision for a special conditional 6 month extension. One would hope that a confirmed drill date would count as a special condition. If so it means Eco has until July next year to drill or the licencesis gone. If its not applicable then its gone in January.

It also seems any discoveries are excluded form any relinquishment requirement. So if Joe an Jethro are viable to someone and a deal can be done then this could still be possibility.

All above subject to my interpretation, however I'm sure on the first point.

Ouch!

Doesn't look that way at Publicis

SP will get walked down until arrival of a new CEO, then rally, then tank when he/she issues the statutory "the last guy has left mess" RNS. Then will bottom, then will rise on the we are going to slash headcount RNS. 1 year from now we'll probably be back where we are today.

IJWT

All fair points. For such a scenario to play out he need the licence extended. I guess we can expect some news reasonably soon as time based on current terms is fast running out.

*wrong

I think you are right. I read that as, best case carried or if not carried fully then funding required to drill with or without a partner. If I am wring then its a terribly written sentence but I take what I read at face value.

On the other hand the assets are valued at 28m. The implied value of 3b/4b stake alone based on the AO deal is c 33m at todays fx.

Hmmmm

Page 11, Orinduick line "Carried wells; contingent on JV partners, or funding"

Don't like the inclusion of the word funding which implies they would do it on their own. SP would be decimated on any capital raise and we have heard Gil talk for years on we will not drill without a partner. If they can't find anyone to partner with then it means no one has the confidence in whats down there (why Total walked away). Better to quit I would have thought....

Worrying...

1 trade in 6 hours.

It’s about time our leader made an appearance to talk the job up.

If the farm out process is genuinely still in play then surely the licence renewal will be part of this, as will hammerhead allocation to the orinduick licence holder. This whole process must be very complicated (unless you are with Exxon!).

Lol. You were on here predicting doom at 120p. How's that working out for you?

And a spike in TTF

Hope he has asked Gemini what the right valuation of S4 should be at it tells me 82p!