Member Info for redwineday

Just listened to the webcast. I thought French guys questions were spot on, particularly the one on organic growth which for me is the fundamental question. SMS can huff and puff as much as he wants about macro this and that but at the end if he and his overpaid chief growth officer (clearly a misnomer!) cant bring in new clients with their in house wizardry then S4 will be becalmed for years. Without a growth story and upward momentum in the SP there will be no strength in the balance sheet to buy their way out of it.

I too am now coming round to the view that a merger is likely the only way out or alternatively there is a stake sold to an investor with deep enough pockets to finance the growth.

I thought the call was rather lacklustre.

SP was 50p when published!

The govt can of course introduce new legislation which on this case will ease permitting however the “opposition” can then challenge the legislation in the constitutional court. It’s the same in this regard as the US Supreme Court which can strike down legislation or indeed lower court judgments as being unconstitutional. The only way around this would be for the constitution to be changed. No idea how difficult that would be to do in SA but I would hazard a guess not easy at all.

The SA govt is split on the issue. The Agricultural related miniseries declined to join in the appeal. It’s known in SA that this is a political issue inside the government.

Even if the appeal is successful or partially successful the NGOs will appeal to the constitutional court arguing that either the new act or any judgment is unconstitutional based on the right to a clean and safe environment. In other words there are 2 bridges to cross. The appeals court and then the constitutional court. The government may be able to fix the former but not the latter.

I am guessing that the big blocks selling over the last few days are the Lunn trust still going.

Been doing bit of research on the Shell case and what I hadn't appreciated was, even if the proposed law is passed making permitting easier the litigation is like to continue in front of the constitutional court which the government can do little about. Even if, and it's a big if, Total have the energy (pardon the pun) to keep going I think 2027 or 2028 is best case in terms of a drill in 3b/4b.

All hope here now hanging in something turning up in Guyana. 10 weeks left to go....

Completely agree with this and shorts will amplify the SP pain. Best to wait till they exit before committing. Take look at S4 history. A series of misses and you end up in the II trash can. S4 has likely bottomed but it has taken 2 years to get there. 2027 at the earliest here ex a bid.

Biggest issue in these results was the drop from Group M. Martin Sorrell (love him or loath him) reckons the media buying business will essentially be replaced by AI. WPP are over exposed in this regard and restructuring it will be extremely difficult. Maintaining the cashflow and margins from it at the current scale seems like an impossible task. I think WPP is uninvestable until how they intend to manage this becomes clear.

Hopefully he is there for more than the blah blah. Drumming up some investment from the Saudi PIF wouldn't be a bad thing!.

Difficult to argue with your sentiment however 3b/4b are exploration wells. Total will want to prove the resource.

Ouch!

Am I the only one who would love to see him give an interview where he outlines how he intends to get to 20% margin and growing the S4 business.

Exxon would have made a provision of in the FID based on their interpretation of the amount of Hammerhead lying in Orinduick. From an accounting and auditing perspective they would be required to do this. How they manage this operationally is another matter where I would expect they would simply seek to maximise any leverage to their gain.

In other words I see the FID for Hammerhead and anything Eco is doing as completely separate.

I'm very keen to know whey the FMCC company is. A Super Bowl campaign would be good!

Must be close to being a whopper. With revenue at 3bn even a 2% marketing spend say 15% margin gets you to 9m. Chat gives NCS a likely % spend to be in the region of 1.5-3%

"I understand that there already may be a completed agreement for Orinduik and that there are regulatory issues that remain regarding approval of Jethro as a commercial find."

Gruv, where did you pick that up?

The issue as an investor is not the potential of the assets but the time to monetise them.

The Orinduick discoveries are 6 years old and haven't brought a cent and as far as we know, pure speculation aside, haven't attracted any formal interest.

Hammerhead arbitration it comes to that could take years to reach an uncertain conclusion.

3b/4b is already behind schedule with dates being pushed back. TotalEngeries can easily decide to take their bat and ball home. They have done it already in SA.

Namibia is years away from a spud.

Holders here need to hope that yes news on any of these assets could come tomorrow but experience and history do tell us to expect something else.

SP at an all time low disagrees with you.

The SP tells you everything you need to know. Market expects nothing imminent if ever with 3b/4b and has written Guyana off.

Gil spent 2 years telling us about data rooms and multiple discussions and here we are with 3 months till the licence expires and all I can hear is silence, or is that tumbleweeds...

Exxon buying Eco, seriously? BP maybe lol.

This will get kicked around until revenue stabilises or starts to grow.

I find it quite telling that Sorrell or Pinto haven't bought more.