Member Info for redwineday

MM's short of stock and shaking the tree

600k offered at 37p. Once this is broken, which should be today there is air above it. I can see us at 39p before COB tomorrow.

Depends what they know I guess but assuming they believe the stock will be higher one year from now than it is today then logically it makes sense for them to exercise the warrants sooner rather than later.

Warrants are not shares, they have no voting stake. By exercising they get a vote and they provide cash to the company now rather than later, securing Eco further for any deals/drills. Don't know what the tax situation is in Israel but I assume there is also a benefit in that they start the capital gains tax clock sooner.

Be interesting to see if Gsa post a reduction in there position this week. They are probably waiting for the SP to drift back down as the I'd who piled in exit.

What we really need to see here is a consolidation in the SP. It seems to me that any rise, small or large gets sold into and we need that overhang gone before we see momentum start to build as their recovery takes shape. This is why IMV a share buy back makes more sense than a divi. A buy back of the proposed divi at today's rice would take 25m of the free float out of circulation, surely better for the long term SP appreciation, but WTFDIK.

Volume small though in comparison to the past couple of weeks. Wouldn’t be surprised to see more after the close trades appear. Could also be MMs are now tight on stock, look at the small spread, so they have to move it up to fill their orders. In the latter case if news breaks this will easily do 30% in a day.

New FD making an impact would be my guess plus pulling forward of cost reductions.

Looks, like he decided to use the extra FCF to reduce the debt. 1p is simply a gesture to the insiders given how much they are collectively down. I would have thought all shareholders would prefer buy backs. More tax efficient and reduces any overhang in a more orderly fashion.

Know the feeling mate. If your average is anything like mine then we still have lots of time to average down.

Can see this at 40p by March results

Buyer is back at it this morning.

Margin improvement from the cost cuts is yet to show up. We'll see this unfold in the coming quarters

If we get an even mildly positive outlook statement in March this will rerate strongly. Revenue improving and margin improving at the same time gives you a multiplier effect on earnings growth and strong FCF.

Finally

Yeah, should be this week, Let’s hope for once they can hit their last forecast. Expectations are so low anything other than that would be very not good.

All makes sense. Can't for the life of think, with the likely news flow, who would be on the selling side.

Another way would be for Eco to get to a 51% holding in JHI swapping Eco stock for an additional 45% of JHI. Allows Eco to bring JHL onto its books and leaves upside for JHI investors in Falklands plus a monetisation event in Guyana whilst leaving Eco with 17.5% of L001 net and Navitas with only one partner to consider. Deal!

JHI investors have been locked in for years, hence their desire for a quick exit and cash out last time. Although they have a lot of future value in their 35% on PL001 a stock swap today with Eco at these levels and all the upside to come might be appealing to them rather than wait for however many more years in the Falklands. So a deal at today's price leaves them the upside in Guyana and a potential cash out exit just around the corner at a far higher price.

Harel,

You think Eco will increase their stake in JHI via an equity swap?

Agree with the points made below. On the other side it says to me they don't expect 3b/4b news anytime soon. On the positive side I am guessing the 5m is for work on block 1.

Run S4,

It must be soothing balm for SMS (SP) battered ego though, mixing with the smooth and the suave as well as some MAGA nutters in the snow and putting behind him for a few hours the stress and strains of running a mega £125m FT Small Cap company.