Cobus Loots, CEO of Pan African Resources, on delivering sector-leading returns for shareholders. Watch the video here.
Apologies I meant to add another…
6) Retail adoption is dying. Institutional adoption is growing, but slow and careful. It’s getting extremely difficult for retail buyers to ‘ape in’ to Bitcoin as was the case in previous cycles and the money is now flowing to institutions that have ‘off chain’ transactions through custody (eg Coinbase and ETFs) which is making it harder for miners to read what’s really going on, when to invest, read the chain etc etc.
Admittedly, this point is the most ‘deep throat’ but there can be no doubt that Bitcoin is by multiples more controlled than it was in previous cycles. Control is mostly suppression imho.
I’m rapidly coming to the conclusion that ‘centralised’ mining economics are working against every listed company operating in this domain. They are becoming an investment black-hole.
A few things that are leading me down this mode of thought:
1) The monetary inflation and inflationary hedge that the ‘hard money’ Bitcoin thesis is built upon operates as a fairly simple premise at the end of the value chain, but for miners, to the left of that chain, they are still subject to inflationary pressures and savage competitiveness outside of their cohort.
2) The era of large-scale ‘join our club’ collective pools for US miners looks like it’s going to come to pass. Ocean and others are now decentralising mining and this looks like it has some continuing legs. A natural competitiveness that ends oligopoly (or similar organisation). This simply makes centralised (mostly listed) miners to have to fight harder for coins.
3) I see no reason that the Core chain is going to change to allow miners any new premiums or that a consensus will form to allow for current incumbents to gain from it in the bear to medium term
4) Stranded energy is now the standard bearer for utility and most current incumbents at scale are treating stranded energy as a form of ESG. Multiple other competitors globally can eat that lunch and take large chunks of global hash without the capital that centralised miners require.
5) I now believe that a lot of the OG/early adopter Bitcoin community are investing and backing decentralised mining ops and believe that centralisation of miners has not been positive. Some of these folks have voices that will grow in reach and influence. It’s inevitable that they will also try to feather their own nest (eg Swan Mining)
Been having a look through the Argo website this evening.
Takeaways are;
- no reference any longer to Argo Labs, so assume that ill-advised sh*tcoin venture is no more....and good riddance
- page added on 'energy optimization' which is mostly around how mining can achieve flexible loads for grids
- new open position for a Manager of FP&A in Canada added under 'Careers'. Is Jim on his way out?
Difficulty adjusted down by 5.6%....
HC - i'd agree on that. Lot's of credit must go to Jim in the finance seat i think. Overall, they kept the ship sailing which is about all that could be hoped for during the bear. I'm interested to hear from Mr Chippas to see if he gives any indication on future strategy though.
Rewards starting to climb again. I’m not seeing a big uptick in hash yet but I also might not be looking at the figures correctly. Block average is now getting longer.
Agreed. In expecting a bit of pop in price in the listed miners next week. The public markets didn’t really know what to expect at halving, but this is going to be the median fee level for a while yet, that’s good for all of them.
Jimmy Song just published an article in X which is a good explainer on Runes.
Sounds like this will be a temporary bubble: https://x.com/jimmysong/status/1781518918001078441?s=46&t=b5w5XhS1rL5_nwa_nVQ15g
On a related point, see this from Foundry: https://twitter.com/MartyBent/status/1780677459161313620
Hmmm - when are the chartists ever right? Again, not saying things look rosy but there is zero point in taking a single view from some Plan B, self-aggrandizing, tarot card reading 'genius'.
Not sure if this has been posted before, but short 30min documentary around Helios and the local area is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pGUj6jV1UOc
It's called Galaxy's facility obviously, not hugely informative on mining economics etc and mainly about Dickens County, but it's a useful reminder that amongst all the money chasing, there are real folks hopefully benefitting from new industry. A good weekend to you all!
30p
WTF you talking about? I'm not saying they are in a useful position by any means, but that is just nonsense. I really don't know why i'm bothering to reply, but you have successfully wound me up it appears.....you are going in the filtered pile.
Erm, wen moon? Until we see higher on chain fees and higher block rewards as a result, i can't see anything moving significantly here. I'm actually surprised we are not seeing a lift yet. Anyone got any thoughts as to why?
Could explain some of the sell-off across miners today: https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/03/11/us-president-again-proposes-crypto-mining-tax-wash-sale-rule-for-digital-assets-in-new-budget/?utm_source=twitter&utm_term=organic&utm_content=editorial&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=coindesk_main
$2.4B shorts to liquidate to get past 70k with authority. Expect big wicks.
New ATH - before the halving. Not since first epoch.....
Kind of amusing watching it just tweezer top at 69k.....
There are some folks on Bitcoin Twitter that are very experienced in mining cycles who are looking at the price action with incredulity (for what it's worth). All comments relating to MSTR being the preferred play seem fairly on the money to me.
Agreed.
TBH - i'm not really thinking too much about the next couple of weeks. I think things will really warm up going into Q3 end and then into the first couple of weeks in April.
Next Fed funds rate decision is March 20th and i'm hoping for an indication if June is still likely the timing of the first rate cut.
It's frustrating price action no doubt, but looking at the tickers all day won't change things.