Member Info for red_rag_to_bull

Totally off-topic, but I just read that the Fed's Bank Term Funding Programme is due to expire on 11th March 2024. Surely this is going to have to be extended out further. There are lots of things lining up around March/April next year that could move BTC wildly around that time, not least the halving.

BTC is actually holding up to this really well tbh. Gold and Silver getting beaten down on USD pair, but that is all hypothecated precious metals being traded, so hard to know the 'real' price of those on the pair.

Markets look like they are at the tipping point. There are some blinking lights now and that 10yr US Treasury yield looks like it's still got legs in it. Bond vigilantes are forcing Powell to look at further rate hikes and USD/JPY carry trade is going to force the Japanese into further moves.

None of this is adding to any risk-on sentiment.

PBOC might have helped add a bit of the old 'global liquidity' today with their move in bank reserve ratio cut. Despite it not an indirect impact of BTC, global liquidity matters.

Liquidity is dry as a bone. Very little volume running price action.

Slight OT, but it's interesting to note that BNB is now hitting a two year low. There has been a lot of chat on BTC-twit that suggests CZ has been playing with custodial BTC (possibly other s-coins too) to try and support the price of BNB in a downtrend. If it breaks 200, there is almost no support back to 50. That could mark the end of suppression as it might just go into freefall. Potential breakout for BTC dominance if that happens? Not sure....

It just can't get a bid at the moment. Q4 is going to get interesting though. The market is trying to bore people into selling.

I don't see this BTC rise lasting tbh. There's no spot volume at all. Without some concerted pressure from spot, it's just futures/options that are driving the movement.

"Bitcoin mining is a tough business" - Lawrence Lepard, 2023

https://twitter.com/DylanLeClair_/status/1695902583074763140?s=20

Interesting view and one that does actually makes sense to me.

Did you form this view from your own research or something you've read/seen anywhere? I'd be interested in knowing. Thanks

HC - it is really odd btw. I was expecting the BTC price to head north yesterday based on the macro news, but it rarely does as expected these days. I'm pretty baffled by what ARBK did into close last night too.

Looks primed to finally break below 100 today - release the liquidity! :)

Very pretty cup and handle now formed on the daily BTC chart going back to Apr 13th. I'm expecting a move north over the weekend.

End of month and quarter volatility due to options expiry. Also, a raft of economic data is being digested (although this significant in the BTC markets).

Interesting scrap over 31k BTC. 31600 is a very big level on the chart. Not a lot between that an 38k based on the weekly.

Doesn't bother me - why say anything when there is nothing to say. They are only boxing themselves into a corner if they give too much away, especially as they are still seeking a new perm CEO (who will presumably want to be sold on strategy and get some confirmation that they can carry out their own direction without oscillating wildly from what has been communicated to date). It just doesn't make any sense to say much until their is a longer term picture to add colour to.

This hasn't aged very well....

Sadly I agree too. I’ve made a life changing position by putting my hard-earned into this. Talk about a blunder.

This is being priced to fail now.

Believing everything that was put on a website was how i got myself stuck in ARB. Fundamentals rule. Worth remembering bud....but all IMHO.

I’ve started to try and track some global liquidity and credit measures as a way of trying to determine if we are emerging from what already may be have been the worst of the monetary contraction. It’s interesting that the MOVE index (credit spreads) and various global liquidity trackers (net liquidity inc China) are showing that the worst problems may have been a October and that recent upturn in various tangible assets like physical gold and Bitcoin are recovering faster than indexes. Worth keeping an eye on some of those metrics.