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Agreed - spread has been tight all day. Pity the Nasdaq composite couldn't sustain a charge
If BTC keeps moving (albeit slowly) in an upward channel then hopefully we crack this resistance tomorrow may be the day (should monthly results be positive or meet expectations).
Just one other thing. I also think that the trading community are trying to make a big point to those who see this as a treasury asset. Let’s face it, money has been made in trading BTC and crypto in general. A lot fewer folks have made any money hodling to current day, so the traders need to have their day. All IMHO and complete conjecture…
Good points barnet.
I expect miners to be actively looking to bring in better expertise around macro outlook tbh and I’ve also said that I expect some not to survive this.
Zooming out, I’m beginning to wonder how much of a market ‘test’ this whole crypto dump is in terms of overall US equity market contagion. Be interesting to see where the Nasdaq futures open on Monday night.
Sharebel - great post. Reasoned and clearly with an understanding of ‘how this all works’. Keep it up dude. Drink on me if we ever cross paths.
I’ve said this for weeks. You need to use out over the summer. This is all trading mechanics and essentially a weird redistribution. Maybe even a consolidation might be more accurate.
The crypto market is unique and more importantly, still not mature and the global 365/24/7 trading commentary means that volatility like this is baked in for now.
Inserts [this is fine] GIF
That's not really an issue. Bitcoin network and protocol could adopt a quantum resistance ledger. There is plenty of material out there proving this.
I posted about this a few weeks back, but this summer is going to be awful. There is no support until 11k on BTC from what i can see. There are going to be a slew of bad outcomes from this - exchange issues, miners having to pull the plugs, institutional investors having to take a haircut. Not the halcyon days most had predicted this time last year.
Agreed. Summer is going to be a constant guessing game on what is going to come out of Jackson Hole in September. I'm going to try and tune out for the next 3 months as the markets are just going to be so erratic over that period until there is 'clear evidence' (as J. Powell puts it) on a downward direction towards 2% inflation in the US. Keep an eye on Egypt as it's the next to fall in great game of default dominoes.
I'm only speculating (if you excuse) the pun, but this is not a punt you want to take. It's officially done.
Sorry, but you're going in the filter list. Always reluctant to do so, but your posting about things that are in the ether and verges of what the rest of folks on this board are talking about. ARK? El Salvador? These things are at best fractionally related to the raison d'être of this board. Adios muchacho!
This Luna/UST farce is a bad look for crypto in general and not a way to get new participants into the market. I pray that Argo Labs are not going anywhere near this kind of experiment. Way to blow your reputation Do Kwon. By the time i get up tomorrow, Luna could be in single figures and i still wouldn't go near it with a bargepole.
I think 40k is pushing it, but it might head up to 33.7 and test previous levels before rolling over again. Worry for me is Nasdaq wrapped up today at near session lows and VIX closed at near session highs. In other news, MSTR down 25% on the day.....and nobody can convince me that Saylor will not be getting concerned that he is going to get margin called. It's pretty grim out there....
@HarChris - yes, it did drop in the afternoon below 60 and I was getting quotes to buy at 58.5
On the flipside of my general worry, BTC v Nasdaq comparison in last 90 days shows that BTC is actually holding up better by comparison. BTC; -6.32% v Nasdaq QQQ; -12.42%
No way that would have happened two years go, so BTC not as 'risk-on' as it would seem.
That's quite a glib statement - you have hung around for a year to post that? Well, give yourself a pat on the back sir. See you for post 2 i guess.....
Two cents at general market conditions. I said yesterday that Nasdaq at 12k is an important level to watch and spent ages pouring over charts last night and doing some correlation work with VIX trends. Keep an eye on VIX as if that hits 40 and Nasdaq below 12k, we will see a big capitulation towards lower lows on Nasdaq. Some big cap tech is going to go bankrupt through this. BTC is going to do very well if it holds the 30k-40k range.
I've put my ARB shares in the locker until summer next year tbh
33k break is very possible and there's not a lot of support beneath that to head to 27k. Let's face it, correlation to IXIC is very close and if that breaks 12k, it can easily fall another 20% after that given the pain is only just starting. Don't get me wrong, i've a large stack in ARB, but this is not going to be pretty for a long time yet.
I'm invested, but i can only assume it is off-putting for some looking to get in.
Just announced a short time ago.....
The London Metal Exchange (LME) has now cancelled all nickel trades that took place today, as the price doubled to a record $100,000 per tonne.
It has acted after prices doubled in a matter of hours in a remarkable short squeeze which reportedly leaves a Chinese nickel tycoon facing heavy losses potentially running into billions of dollars.
Having already suspended nickel trading this morning, the LME has now decided to cancel today’s trades executed since 00:00 UK time, and defer delivery of all physically settled Nickel Contracts due for delivery tomorrow.
In a notice to members, the LME says “The current events are unprecedented”, and that it is tracking the impact of the Russia-Ukraine situation on the metals market.
Agreed - i'm actually surprised that it hasn't tested and broken local lows at 33k. It's a useful exercise in how impacted/resistant to macro and geopolitical events that BTC currently is.