Member Info for red_rag_to_bull

Well, regardless of what price it was two years ago, tomorrow is the CPI print, so i'm expecting much of the same volatility for the next few days. Local low is 14k on the chart with possible spring. That will be a full 80% drawdown YTD. Brutal

Deliberate manipulation of tokens is nothing new, but the two of the world's largest exchanges playing a game of chess with (and possibly to gain) other people's assets is quite frankly ludicrous. The FTX collapse is on par with Enron in my view....a collapse that led to greater regulation and a lot of soul-searching.

I can see regulators getting involved in all this. For the average Joe, is it any wonder that faith in the whole crypto industry is evaporated? It's become not only a graveyard for investments, but even custody of assets looks extremely suspect.

SBF jsut tweeted that FTX have come to an agreement with Binance re. FTT....that's why

BTC couldn't hold 21k on the 4hr. Same old, same old. 2022 in a nutshell...

No, you are absolutely right. A catalyst can drop at point that is crypto market specific. None of these this year (eg. Blackrock, GAPP accounting guidance clarifications) have really had any impact on upward price movement and are not really geared at retail FOMO (which i do believe is also needed to really light a fire).

The market has changed significantly. A lot more of this is now tied up institutionally and correlated to market instruments. Retail has very little impact anymore, which is why the macro is now so important. US midterms and CPI print next week will add volatility and all of this gain could be erased very quickly OR it could gain momentum. That's why i look at a month rather than a day.

Short answer, no. It has done this during the summer rally when BTC traded up to 25K then fell off a cliff again. I want to see a monthly candle that engulfs before i start to think about a reversal. This is really all ultra-short term trending based on equities and currency movement.
Look at the monthly chart over the last ten years and that show when reversals occur. Bull runs are proceeded by significant reversals.

Faster than i had thought it might anyway.
Not a lot of resistance at all on the 4ht chart between 21-22k. If stonks keep pumping, could be an interesting close and momo might carry into the weekend.

Hmmm. Your optimism is appreciated, but 20800 has proven sticky. It's failed to break this consistently over the last few weeks.

Axios are reporting Trump eyeing 14th Nov announcement for 2024 run https://www.axios.com/2022/11/04/trump-presidential-run-2024-announcement
I have no political opinion at all, but i'd be surprised if this wasn't the makings of a pro-Bitcoin/crypto ticket, at least at the margins. Make of it what you will mind you.

Finally, the Fed get a figure that states that tightening may be yielding on the unemployment figure. 3.7% vs 3.5% previous month.
Headline figure was up, but that was a bit of a red herring. Market seems to be digesting positively. 50bps looks nailed on if Core CPI doesn't surprise to the upside. Could be a santa rally in the making

Sorry, i don't really get what you are saying.
Potential is one thing, but growth is in essence the catch-all market phrase that captures potential. Check out growth industries and see how they are getting hammered.
It's also a lot harder to sell potential when you are proving consistently that you can't keep your head above water. What kind of potential is that?
I was a a good footballer when i was younger, but in a team that lost by 4 or 5 in most games. That kind of sums this whole scenario up. I'm not personally attacking your credo, but i find all this now incredibly blind to reality.

Interesting. More of these news releases before Santa comes i suspect.

Basically, more pain to come in terms of tightening. This whole act is going to last longer than anticipated as destination is going to not be a clear road.
BTC rallied on the prospect that there was clarity on when the tightening would plateau, but the presser put short shrift to that idea, so it's now dumping again.
The data the Fed are basing all of their mandate on is a total mess. The actions they are taking are being implemented in the face of a hugely contradictory environment to which they would like to be tightening. I personally thought he stuck to the script as known, but I find a lot of the comms around the edges to be very blurry. When he tried to answer questions about metrics and data, I felt he was incredibly woolly. The markets hated all those answers.
After today, i've come to the conclusion from a macro-perspective, BTC is now in trouble for the entirety of 2023. I can't see Argo surviving this personally and have written-off a very large investment. The equity markets can be a brutal place but this was always a risky play given the fundamentals. Investing in a nascent industry within the context of economic unknown quantities and geopolitical flux has proven to be costly, but lessons are there to be learned.

ECB Rate decision @ 1:15pm
US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) @ 1:30pm
US GDP Growth Rate (QoQ) @ 1:30pm
....this is Bloomberg :)

I agree on USD. It looks to be weakening and M formation reversal on daily chart is playing out. Keep in eye on Manufacturing PMI too as that is a lesser known indicator for BTC trending. It came in weaker than expected and some think it's now bottomed for a reversal. BTC front runs it based on last ten years of trend.

I appreciate your input on the board Chris. You make excellent points and your posts are well detailed and considered. I'm still holding as i'm still optimist on a deal being done.

I’ve noticed a large amount of this trade over the last two weeks. This is either the very last of the dumping by any of the institutions or our appalling leaders are now throwing in the towel.

This looks interesting. I was wondering last week if the likes of Binance and FTX might do something like this. Miners are fairly critical to supporting the industry at large. I'd suggest Argo get on the blower asap tbh