Member Info for red_rag_to_bull

Groan.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DM47jNu6zao
I've watched it - grim viewing. Argo gets plenty mention, but not in a good way.
For those of a nervous disposition, i'd leave off watching until after 7am tomorrow tbh. Been a brutal last two sessions here. Take care folks!

Hexam - Thanks for clarifying on my question re. HODL. I thought they had a shade over 1000 BTC to hand that was deployable, but evidently not.

If they sell more than anticipated from the HODL, then that is not good. I’m still unclear on why the couldn’t have reduced the equity raise through a one off sale from HODL. If they are expecting an uptick in fortunes in less than the 12 month runway; then why not try and preserve the shareholder value? Maybe that strategy is PW’s ‘last throw of the dice’. I’ve woken up this morning with a strange feeling of doom around all this. Perhaps those saying miners were not investable were correct. We will find out in relatively short order I suppose.

I'm frustrated with the over-exuberance around deploying out Helios too. It always seemed to be a 'big bang' and it just hasn't been executed well. Doubtless that plenty of lessons learned from it, but that's cold comfort atm.
On a broader sense, the Fed really engaged in executing monetary policy change about 6 months ago and it takes around 6 months for this to actually reflect in data (such is the lag between initiation, execution through the system and result in data). I'd expect that the next 6 months are vital in that the DXY cannot feasibly retain it's YTD strength for ever. Anyone here (and i'm sure there are some that look regularly) will be able to see that the weakening of the USD is absolutely fundamental to a sustained rise in BTC. By this, i mean a correction to DXY to nearer 90. We might start to see a reversion in USD between now and March next year once the policy starts to bite. I also concur that Argo has gone from being stable to significant risk of not being a going concern in 12 months time. Worrying for myself as I have a lot invested here. Biggest part of my portfolio by a long way due to continually adding in the pullback. EEK!

Fair points made. I would say though that it depends on the catalyst that takes BTC to 100k.
If it were another couple of S&P 500s adding it to the balance sheet or treasury, then that will likely be a buy the rumour, sell the news event.

If it was an anticipation of (and execution of) regulatory clarity allowing FIs to then go into the market hard, then we could be off to the races in a big way. Like lots of commentators have said, just 3-5% of circulating capital heading into BTC is a massive amount of wonga and would take BTC well beyond 100k with a stabilisation effect that would reduce volatility. I'd be relatively reluctant to do anything other than top-slice in the latter scenario. All IMHO of course.

Probably missed this as a discussion. Any thoughts/estimates on numbers for Sept? Been too busy looking at yield curves....

My buy at 36.8 earlier today is now overpriced. Markets generally (including BTC) are operating on big stochastic measures in the last few days. It's all very frustrating as i've spent ages on TA and correlations over the last 12 months. Totally pointless given the macro, political and CBs flipping cards and going fishing for some sort of stability. I give up my friends! :)

Sorry - meant $13k USD.....though we might be at parity by then :)

I agree with the 75bps, but i don't see any weakening in message around the fight on inflation. Crucially, i think they need to be clearer on what they are looking to achieve in labour markets. That message has not been clear thus far and if they just came out and said 'we expect and need the market to soften in some sectors', the markets would get some clarity on forward projections.
This is a real mess tbh and whilst this kind of crisis moment is probably not the time for action, the age of the central banks trying to manage the complexity and uncertainties that exist in the world are truly coming to an end - particularly with fiat currencies the underlying balance sheet asset.
Those hoping for a bounce today and in coming weeks are going to be disappointed i reckon. I see a puke-point that heads to BTC circa £13k and that would well be cycle low. The continued strength of DXY and meltdown in GBP and EUR is really not good if you are looking for correlative factors for positive price action.

Agreed - spread has been tight all day. Pity the Nasdaq composite couldn't sustain a charge

If BTC keeps moving (albeit slowly) in an upward channel then hopefully we crack this resistance tomorrow may be the day (should monthly results be positive or meet expectations).

Just one other thing. I also think that the trading community are trying to make a big point to those who see this as a treasury asset. Let’s face it, money has been made in trading BTC and crypto in general. A lot fewer folks have made any money hodling to current day, so the traders need to have their day. All IMHO and complete conjecture…

Good points barnet.
I expect miners to be actively looking to bring in better expertise around macro outlook tbh and I’ve also said that I expect some not to survive this.
Zooming out, I’m beginning to wonder how much of a market ‘test’ this whole crypto dump is in terms of overall US equity market contagion. Be interesting to see where the Nasdaq futures open on Monday night.

Sharebel - great post. Reasoned and clearly with an understanding of ‘how this all works’. Keep it up dude. Drink on me if we ever cross paths.
I’ve said this for weeks. You need to use out over the summer. This is all trading mechanics and essentially a weird redistribution. Maybe even a consolidation might be more accurate.
The crypto market is unique and more importantly, still not mature and the global 365/24/7 trading commentary means that volatility like this is baked in for now.
Inserts [this is fine] GIF

That's not really an issue. Bitcoin network and protocol could adopt a quantum resistance ledger. There is plenty of material out there proving this.

I posted about this a few weeks back, but this summer is going to be awful. There is no support until 11k on BTC from what i can see. There are going to be a slew of bad outcomes from this - exchange issues, miners having to pull the plugs, institutional investors having to take a haircut. Not the halcyon days most had predicted this time last year.

Agreed. Summer is going to be a constant guessing game on what is going to come out of Jackson Hole in September. I'm going to try and tune out for the next 3 months as the markets are just going to be so erratic over that period until there is 'clear evidence' (as J. Powell puts it) on a downward direction towards 2% inflation in the US. Keep an eye on Egypt as it's the next to fall in great game of default dominoes.

I'm only speculating (if you excuse) the pun, but this is not a punt you want to take. It's officially done.

Sorry, but you're going in the filter list. Always reluctant to do so, but your posting about things that are in the ether and verges of what the rest of folks on this board are talking about. ARK? El Salvador? These things are at best fractionally related to the raison d'être of this board. Adios muchacho!