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Whoever was saying this over the last few days looks to have nailed it on the technicals. Looks almost a cert we are heading there.
Essentially, there were more Fed committee members saying - "yeah, we are still staying the course on rate rise according to the dot plot....BUT, we are not blind to that fact that this is having impacts and cracks are starting to show....however, this is expected and currently outside our mandate." Some of more savvy Fed-speak commentary is saying that this is also a cue for what they might need to consider if earnings miss significantly across the 3-Star impact US corps or Core inflation surprises by being cooler to the downside.
I must confess, i see not pivot happening as this is more an exercise in cred for Fed than anything else. There is probably a greater likelihood that other global investors start thinking they are using lagging indicators (which are all a bit wonky and disconnected to current reality) to get dictate future policy, so maybe it's time to cool off the DXY.....let's start offloading bucks. A downward run on USD would benefit BTC and things that are all ready pretty weird, might get a whole lot weirder.
Anyway, time to tune out and get some rest before tomorrow afternoon's events.
Expecting a move north for BTC off the back of that. Clutching at straws a bit, but gotta look for any crumbs where you can!
I'm in the same position. Hovered over the sell button a couple of times but it would be a pretty devastating loss (circa 80%) = tens of £k loss. Phrase de jour is 'zombie companies are getting the punishment' across the mainstream financial commentary. Feels pretty accurate.
Even if i'm aware of what's in the release from yesterday, i'd personally like to see one. Even if it's just to see if i can get a read on how panic-stricken he's looking in it. It's telling in itself that there hasn't been one this month so far.
Amongst the gloom, this really cheered me up stnz. I totally agree with your sentiments around the annoying 'chat-board/social media persona'.
I'm one of them dude.
Bonds up, DXY continues in relentless march upwards, cracks not just visible, but gaping. I'm tempted to look away for the rest of the week, but not sure what on earth i will see when i return. CPI figures are important this week. If there is no real reduction in Core (which is forecast), i can't see how the Fed can just turn a blind-eye to what is going on beyond the Inflation target of 2%. It's ludicrous that you have the masters of the universe just focusing so relentlessly on a single, lagging figure whilst tossing aside the rest of the measures of health of the broader economy.
"It is their time now...." Ouch!
Not necessarily. They may want to put that out separately to make it more visible. RNS today is after all a monthly mining update, so focus is on Sept operational activity rather than financing.
Groan.....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DM47jNu6zao
I've watched it - grim viewing. Argo gets plenty mention, but not in a good way.
For those of a nervous disposition, i'd leave off watching until after 7am tomorrow tbh. Been a brutal last two sessions here. Take care folks!
Hexam - Thanks for clarifying on my question re. HODL. I thought they had a shade over 1000 BTC to hand that was deployable, but evidently not.
If they sell more than anticipated from the HODL, then that is not good. I’m still unclear on why the couldn’t have reduced the equity raise through a one off sale from HODL. If they are expecting an uptick in fortunes in less than the 12 month runway; then why not try and preserve the shareholder value? Maybe that strategy is PW’s ‘last throw of the dice’. I’ve woken up this morning with a strange feeling of doom around all this. Perhaps those saying miners were not investable were correct. We will find out in relatively short order I suppose.
I'm frustrated with the over-exuberance around deploying out Helios too. It always seemed to be a 'big bang' and it just hasn't been executed well. Doubtless that plenty of lessons learned from it, but that's cold comfort atm.
On a broader sense, the Fed really engaged in executing monetary policy change about 6 months ago and it takes around 6 months for this to actually reflect in data (such is the lag between initiation, execution through the system and result in data). I'd expect that the next 6 months are vital in that the DXY cannot feasibly retain it's YTD strength for ever. Anyone here (and i'm sure there are some that look regularly) will be able to see that the weakening of the USD is absolutely fundamental to a sustained rise in BTC. By this, i mean a correction to DXY to nearer 90. We might start to see a reversion in USD between now and March next year once the policy starts to bite. I also concur that Argo has gone from being stable to significant risk of not being a going concern in 12 months time. Worrying for myself as I have a lot invested here. Biggest part of my portfolio by a long way due to continually adding in the pullback. EEK!
Fair points made. I would say though that it depends on the catalyst that takes BTC to 100k.
If it were another couple of S&P 500s adding it to the balance sheet or treasury, then that will likely be a buy the rumour, sell the news event.
If it was an anticipation of (and execution of) regulatory clarity allowing FIs to then go into the market hard, then we could be off to the races in a big way. Like lots of commentators have said, just 3-5% of circulating capital heading into BTC is a massive amount of wonga and would take BTC well beyond 100k with a stabilisation effect that would reduce volatility. I'd be relatively reluctant to do anything other than top-slice in the latter scenario. All IMHO of course.
Probably missed this as a discussion. Any thoughts/estimates on numbers for Sept? Been too busy looking at yield curves....
My buy at 36.8 earlier today is now overpriced. Markets generally (including BTC) are operating on big stochastic measures in the last few days. It's all very frustrating as i've spent ages on TA and correlations over the last 12 months. Totally pointless given the macro, political and CBs flipping cards and going fishing for some sort of stability. I give up my friends! :)
Sorry - meant $13k USD.....though we might be at parity by then :)
I agree with the 75bps, but i don't see any weakening in message around the fight on inflation. Crucially, i think they need to be clearer on what they are looking to achieve in labour markets. That message has not been clear thus far and if they just came out and said 'we expect and need the market to soften in some sectors', the markets would get some clarity on forward projections.
This is a real mess tbh and whilst this kind of crisis moment is probably not the time for action, the age of the central banks trying to manage the complexity and uncertainties that exist in the world are truly coming to an end - particularly with fiat currencies the underlying balance sheet asset.
Those hoping for a bounce today and in coming weeks are going to be disappointed i reckon. I see a puke-point that heads to BTC circa £13k and that would well be cycle low. The continued strength of DXY and meltdown in GBP and EUR is really not good if you are looking for correlative factors for positive price action.