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Basically, more pain to come in terms of tightening. This whole act is going to last longer than anticipated as destination is going to not be a clear road.
BTC rallied on the prospect that there was clarity on when the tightening would plateau, but the presser put short shrift to that idea, so it's now dumping again.
The data the Fed are basing all of their mandate on is a total mess. The actions they are taking are being implemented in the face of a hugely contradictory environment to which they would like to be tightening. I personally thought he stuck to the script as known, but I find a lot of the comms around the edges to be very blurry. When he tried to answer questions about metrics and data, I felt he was incredibly woolly. The markets hated all those answers.
After today, i've come to the conclusion from a macro-perspective, BTC is now in trouble for the entirety of 2023. I can't see Argo surviving this personally and have written-off a very large investment. The equity markets can be a brutal place but this was always a risky play given the fundamentals. Investing in a nascent industry within the context of economic unknown quantities and geopolitical flux has proven to be costly, but lessons are there to be learned.
ECB Rate decision @ 1:15pm
US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) @ 1:30pm
US GDP Growth Rate (QoQ) @ 1:30pm
....this is Bloomberg :)
I agree on USD. It looks to be weakening and M formation reversal on daily chart is playing out. Keep in eye on Manufacturing PMI too as that is a lesser known indicator for BTC trending. It came in weaker than expected and some think it's now bottomed for a reversal. BTC front runs it based on last ten years of trend.
I appreciate your input on the board Chris. You make excellent points and your posts are well detailed and considered. I'm still holding as i'm still optimist on a deal being done.
I’ve noticed a large amount of this trade over the last two weeks. This is either the very last of the dumping by any of the institutions or our appalling leaders are now throwing in the towel.
This looks interesting. I was wondering last week if the likes of Binance and FTX might do something like this. Miners are fairly critical to supporting the industry at large. I'd suggest Argo get on the blower asap tbh
Sharebel - is this your broker? :) https://youtu.be/13Yd524ZbDU
Yeah, I too a look that boatman stuff too. The web is just littered with this kind of stuff. File under the same crap as that lawsuit on behalf of shareholders stuff. I’m not putting blinkers on, it’s just bs imo after checking it out
Interesting 3 day bullish engulfing on the BTC/USDT chart forming too. Could be wild tomorrow if Argo drop something positive. I'd like to think the longs here are due a break tbh.
BTC doing things. Blackrock earnings beat seemed to completely turnaround the trading algos today. A near 1250daily swing on S&P500. Pretty wild stuff.
Could be equally volatile tomorrow though. JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup all reporting earnings. 30% beat for Blackrock suggests good things, but nothing is guaranteed in this market. Let's see tomorrow afternoon...
I would do the same but i'm so far down, capital preservation is near pointless tbh until i see what happens in the next month
This is going to be a rout today
I took a look at that firm earlier in the week when it was posted. It's a bunch of ambulance chasers and their entire PR appears to be done via this kind of nonsense blog site. Ignored....it's practically spam.
I'm not able to get a chart up atm. What's the 4 hour looking like Levs? Be interested to see what might occur at 1:30pm based on that
I doth my cap sir (even this is incredibly difficult to witness being seriously long)
The trouble here is there is just so little liquidity in the market atm too to prevent this from happening
Whoever was saying this over the last few days looks to have nailed it on the technicals. Looks almost a cert we are heading there.
Essentially, there were more Fed committee members saying - "yeah, we are still staying the course on rate rise according to the dot plot....BUT, we are not blind to that fact that this is having impacts and cracks are starting to show....however, this is expected and currently outside our mandate." Some of more savvy Fed-speak commentary is saying that this is also a cue for what they might need to consider if earnings miss significantly across the 3-Star impact US corps or Core inflation surprises by being cooler to the downside.
I must confess, i see not pivot happening as this is more an exercise in cred for Fed than anything else. There is probably a greater likelihood that other global investors start thinking they are using lagging indicators (which are all a bit wonky and disconnected to current reality) to get dictate future policy, so maybe it's time to cool off the DXY.....let's start offloading bucks. A downward run on USD would benefit BTC and things that are all ready pretty weird, might get a whole lot weirder.
Anyway, time to tune out and get some rest before tomorrow afternoon's events.
Expecting a move north for BTC off the back of that. Clutching at straws a bit, but gotta look for any crumbs where you can!
I'm in the same position. Hovered over the sell button a couple of times but it would be a pretty devastating loss (circa 80%) = tens of £k loss. Phrase de jour is 'zombie companies are getting the punishment' across the mainstream financial commentary. Feels pretty accurate.