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Sorry, didn't mean to come across as brusque.
Trend is your friend tbh. It's looking strong on 4hr which i use as it tracks well against market sessions. There is bound to be a lot of liquidity at 30k mark, but it's looking like it wants to keep heading north. It really all depends on a lot of external factors atm, not least the US fiscal sh*t show and farcical governmental stasis in the House.
If you don't know why, read the news (both current affairs and economic). Answers are as plain as day.
Worth keeping an eye on this - it's looking like it wants to have a go at ATH ($2050).
If it moves through it this time, lots of algos will trigger and things could go bananas. Gold moves lead BTC traditionally. Things are starting to get interesting and i'm adding to both my BTC HODL and here today.
Difficulty and hashrate have both increased over the same 6 month period. It makes sense to me
10yr looks like it continually wants to pop 5. The volatility on the long end is now becoming 'disorderly' and it's looking worse week-by-week, particularly given geopolitical risks. It's a matter of time before institutions and money market funds start to pay more attention to Bitcoin and actually start parking money there for the longer term. I'm very bullish for the next 12 month period given the fiscal issues. I'd actually be tempted to adopt a 60-40 portfolio (60 BTC, 40 Miners).....
More concerned than I’ve ever been here. Hoping the winter months serve me well though.
Totally off-topic, but I just read that the Fed's Bank Term Funding Programme is due to expire on 11th March 2024. Surely this is going to have to be extended out further. There are lots of things lining up around March/April next year that could move BTC wildly around that time, not least the halving.
BTC is actually holding up to this really well tbh. Gold and Silver getting beaten down on USD pair, but that is all hypothecated precious metals being traded, so hard to know the 'real' price of those on the pair.
Markets look like they are at the tipping point. There are some blinking lights now and that 10yr US Treasury yield looks like it's still got legs in it. Bond vigilantes are forcing Powell to look at further rate hikes and USD/JPY carry trade is going to force the Japanese into further moves.
None of this is adding to any risk-on sentiment.
PBOC might have helped add a bit of the old 'global liquidity' today with their move in bank reserve ratio cut. Despite it not an indirect impact of BTC, global liquidity matters.
Liquidity is dry as a bone. Very little volume running price action.
Slight OT, but it's interesting to note that BNB is now hitting a two year low. There has been a lot of chat on BTC-twit that suggests CZ has been playing with custodial BTC (possibly other s-coins too) to try and support the price of BNB in a downtrend. If it breaks 200, there is almost no support back to 50. That could mark the end of suppression as it might just go into freefall. Potential breakout for BTC dominance if that happens? Not sure....
It just can't get a bid at the moment. Q4 is going to get interesting though. The market is trying to bore people into selling.
I don't see this BTC rise lasting tbh. There's no spot volume at all. Without some concerted pressure from spot, it's just futures/options that are driving the movement.
"Bitcoin mining is a tough business" - Lawrence Lepard, 2023
https://twitter.com/DylanLeClair_/status/1695902583074763140?s=20
Interesting view and one that does actually makes sense to me.
Did you form this view from your own research or something you've read/seen anywhere? I'd be interested in knowing. Thanks
HC - it is really odd btw. I was expecting the BTC price to head north yesterday based on the macro news, but it rarely does as expected these days. I'm pretty baffled by what ARBK did into close last night too.
Looks primed to finally break below 100 today - release the liquidity! :)
Very pretty cup and handle now formed on the daily BTC chart going back to Apr 13th. I'm expecting a move north over the weekend.
End of month and quarter volatility due to options expiry. Also, a raft of economic data is being digested (although this significant in the BTC markets).