The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
His thoughts on market dynamics differing in the 2024 halving from previous cycles is food for thought, especially his statement around lower-tier miners (which i think Argo would fall into atm) https://tftc.io/bitcoin-mining-halving-2024/
BTC supply squeeze is simply not ignorable. Whilst I think this benefits actual BTC asset holders, check the futures positions already being positioned on 30 day and look at the strike price. Number go up in a big way soon and (fingers crossed), Argo will be a beneficiary.
I do worry about Genesis now saying they are looking to liquidate $1.4B Bitcoin from FTX though. Bit of selling pressure from that possible (as per GBTC outflows). If you look at the last month though, should be absorbed relatively comfortably though.
https://x.com/samcallah/status/1757445720880140555?s=46&t=b5w5XhS1rL5_nwa_nVQ15g
Just a heads-up that Swan Bitcoin have entered the mining game. 4.5 E/H with planned 8 E/H by the summer. https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/01/25/swan-bitcoin-unveils-mining-unit-as-parent-company-prepares-to-go-public/
Nice analogy! It's a dead month now until 31st and Powell gives the usual nondescript 'data dependant' spiel. After that, it's heads down until things change and cuts in March, or wait a month until 20th and halvening. I'm waiting as there are most definitely exciting times to come - winners and losers..
Drop this week is way overdone on lots of miners. Top 17 US listed miners market cap v Bitcoin market cap is now sitting at 1.68% as at time of writing. That's a crazy overall value against the overall market cap imo.
I suspect lots of these are folks getting out of there and heading to the door in swathes with funds redeemed placed into other ETFs in coming days. Could be an overhang in selling until that is all cleared out.
The price could end up anywhere today....it's looking at over $50k anyway
No it didn't - Core CPI came in nearly bang on consensus. That's what the Fed are looking at. Headline slightly up, but that's not the focus.
For those who are actually interested in the Spot STF tickers themselves (and might have the ability to track the trades), here they are:
Grayscale $GBTC
Hashdex $DEFI
Valkyrie $BRRR
Invesco $BTCO
Wisdom Tree $BTCW
Franklin $EZBC
Blackrock $IBIT
Fidelity $FBTC
Vaneck $HODL
Ark 21 $ARKB
Bitwise $BITB
Between first trading day AUM figures and potential trad-fi leg-up if US CPI comes in at/under consensus, tomorrow could be one of those wild days.
This is ll on Bloomberg - SEC X account was compromised. Couldn't make this all up
What a shambles
Game on
Getting outta bed to reply to this nonsense. You clearly are a 'Top 5 risers' dude. That's fine.
Some of us here are long-term holders and underwater...and yup, that's my problem.
Thing is though, this is monetary game dude. You don't seem to grok the fact that history is not a ruler of the present. Different rules now, therefore different numeracy, ergo, different results.
It's only a number and an IOU that opens tomorrow and closes tomorrow. Buy some Bitcoin if you want certainty.
I'm just really mind-dumping tbh with something that is more than likely, wildly into the future where capital controls might become a 'thing' again. Thought experiment really, but should have gone to TFTC or Bitcoin Cafe. Best of luck all - green on the board tomorrow i suspect (price, not filters....bit of both probs) ๐
Also, most people are totally plugged-in to a system that only ever favours things going up, which a derivative has facilitated. What happens in a world where the denominated price decreases, without derivative, and supply can't increase? Also, if things become plentiful, why derive? Jeff Booth is your man to fill you in on this and check out Larry Leppard for why derivatives are predominantly a race to the bottom. Too much excitement for me in one day - hitting the hay ๐คฃ
Thanks, but i disagree. I think one of the reasons that BTC has been green-lighted by the SEC is that there has been a wider discussion between various other US institutions to ensure that this is just the start. Derivatives on anything that can't be backed one-to-one should be banned entirely, so should be limited only to agri and certain commodity cases. I can understand where you are coming from, but that ecosystem won't come from those at a state level or those that are from the BTC OG set. That will get squeezed out quickly if seen as a threat as both maxis and state believe in a multi-gen mindset.
Sorry for 'spamming', but i should have said....
Some of the custodians and providers of Bitcoin ETFs are going to want a place to be able to arbitrage their exposure if they can't hypothecate. The simplest way to do this in current ETFs is to simply borrow against future supply, but this is a widow-maker in the Bitcoin world and not even technically possible on a unit-per-unit basis. Being able to 'ensure' a supply through a capital working arrangement allows for greater liquidity and it's possible (only possible), that those that are using this as part of ETFs or wider fund mechanisms would pay miners a premium to mine and hold their Bitcoin as BTC DRs with a bond-like term premia assocaited to them. This could be massively lucrative for miners.
This does not sound like the share for you bud. Try a 90% shakedown over a year and then i'll start to think a 10% drop on a placing announcement is something to get out of bed about
BTW - this is also an under the radar story given the noise on ETFs. Basically, this could be a starting point for an instrument that will invoke a capital reserve that would be similar to Fort Knox and basically offers a nation-state level control over UTXOs. Global (nee-US) FIs are awake and are now thinking with a game theory mindset. https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/01/04/citi-alumni-founded-startup-to-offer-bitcoin-securities-that-dont-need-green-light-from-sec-bloomberg/