Member Info for red_rag_to_bull

For those in the know, she’s just tweeted that a BTC Treasury Reserve Management strategy is going to happen.

Without noting people to death, I’ve a few high-levels things whirring around my sleep-deprived head around this.

1) How does this work if you don’t essentially control hash? For reference, think about gold as the reserve asset and nation-state strategic gold mining strategies over last 100 years. Surely positive for miners domiciled in the country of reserve?

2) With a strictly finite asset and the bell curve of utility, this shouldn’t be as possible as a truly value holding asset, but it’s divisible to a near infinite number, so an I missing something?

3) Depending on how the Bitcoin policies work out in a Trump admin, is there a possibility where ARB delist from the UK and relist on Canadian or US markets exclusively? This does not seem likely today but could become quickly a ‘thing’ depending on how far the UK lags in treatment of cryptocurrency miners.

US stonks indices are on a melt-up. 6000 incoming on S&P500.

I'm expecting some volatility at some point in the near future, but i can't believe that the MOVE and VIX indices are also trending downwards. Pretty spectacular stuff tbh.

MSTR +14.2% in pre-market. Saylor to get an advisory role in forthcoming administration?

Stayed up all night mate. Just woken from a catnap and can see price retreated a little. Cash open in the US is where we'll know if this rise has legs though. Let the boomers open up their 401Ks and smash-buy some IBIT etc.....

New ATH is being obliterated by the minute....all BTC plays will do well tomorrow provided nothing systemic breaks

Was this written with an AI chatbot....? There are plenty of folks here that are abundantly wise in knowing about cycles and are very knowledgeable on Argo, so this post is pointless.

Well said Dags. Been thinking about these ethical quandaries myself tbh.

If Bitcoin truly is unstoppable, neither candidate should matter, but life just doesn’t work like that.

Also, for all the rhetoric about Trump being a free marketeer, his tariff policies are so bent out of shape with economic reality, that is likely going to send long bonds soaring and potentially crater the equities markets (taking BTC along for the ride I would have thought).

Btw. Implied price per BTC per block mined is now sitting at $325k. Something is awry…

The last two weeks price action tell you everything you need to know that multi-sig custodian BTC (ie ETFs etc) are totally in control. Despite positive news flow pretty much being dominant, price is moving above last 4 months volatility measures.

To me, this is just a measure of everything being controlled by spot ETFs. The sooner we get these options up and running the better. I don’t think anyone is ready for what the after hours moves will be like in both directions once that is active.

Price is a joke at the moment as are fees on chain.

Get MSTR into the Qs end of Nov and other 99 companies will need to engage to stop making this look like a cartel of whales just flexing the tides of the Earth at their whim.

Rant over.

68k was support back end of May, turned resistance back in July. Go through that with authority and it could get interesting. I'm tired of saying Bitcoin will do things though. It's a law into itself really.

MSTR just hit a 37B market cap. It's looking good for them qualifying for the QQQ end of Nov if this run continues....

Don't forget MSTR looking like it may enter the QQQ/NASDAQ100 if it can close at $36B market cap by the time the reindexing takes place. It think it needs to hit that market cap by final week of November for that to take place. If it does, liquidity just pours into MSTR....

$142B (obvs)….

CLSK - I concur. I said it a few weeks back, but Q4 last year saw strong performance in BTC against major FX crosses and I think this one could be even more explosive. You’ve highlighted what I’m paying attention to and there is more Chinese stimmy coming for sure. They just can’t prop up an economy of that scale on $142 of juice to buy Chinese equities. That’s a drop in the ocean and once the real deal is engaged, the BTC range will be left for dust.

Can the miners capture enough liquidity to push the multiples up though? Debatable.

I dunno. That’s the sort of thing I read 59 times a day.

BTC/USD is a pair right? So, let’s say USD sells off on a 50 bips move, it’s not really going to move the needle too much with the spot price of Bitcoin based on what I’m seeing.

Given we are clearly close to a cutting cycle, I had expected moves in Bitcoin price in anticipation of this, not after the fact. This is what seems different in this cycle. It’s now trading like a mature asset, not an alternative asset where speculation rules the big moves.

I’m hanging in of course. A nearly whole coiner and plenty of skin in the miners. Still trying on the patience mind!

Anyone else finding it just interminable watching the chop on a daily and weekly basis. Clearly Wednesday is big and the liquidity is going to move around post 7pm in the UK, but with gold marching up on a daily basis through central bank and Asian interest, I’m scratching my head on where the catalysts are going to come from to reach the dizzy heights oft proclaimed on the usual fin chat.

Also, it’s patently obvious that mining alone is not going to cut it in this cycle.l for those that were only in that game last cycle.

Appalling JOLTs numbers although quits data was percentage based about consensus. JOLTs suggest that the Fed will cut 50% now though. We need something to get some money moving again.

Some of the US data is now starting to suggest a harder landing than lots of the macro-optimists were thinking a few weeks back. As usual, the Fed will get caught offside and will be too slow to cut, meaning they have to go deeper and faster than they had hoped. Still glass half-full on Q4, but WTFDIK.

I agree. I'm also in some North American junior gold miners/royalty companies and the multiples are way below what they should be. There has been very little expansion during the run up in spot gold but this is largely due to AISC also increasing significantly over the last few years. It's really frustrating though. Even if you are an excellent gold miner picker, it is not really yielding much fruit. Lots of things seem like they've been upended in terms of cycles/normal trends with cyclicals in recent years.

That second HC Wainwright question 're. jam tomorrow' sounded like a company that are getting fed up and want some meat on the bone that they can feed to investors.

So, Powell just took his victory lap and basically popped the champagne cork - inflation heading to target and no interest in further cooling of the labor market.

"Policy clearly on a changing path"....

We should see some strength heading into Q4 and beyond. 50bps cut in Sept?