Member Info for red_rag_to_bull

Nevermind - got my answer. Staking activity as explained here: https://x.com/mononautical/status/1826604180251050388

Really strange pop up today from 1.8% vs. reward to 10.5% vs. reward at time of writing this. Anything happened onchain to create such a weird move? It's welcome of course....

And basically preserved 20% of my remaining capital in the last two days. Feeling wholly more comfortable now that the dough is parked into a couple of companies that will run on fund capital and index related rallies (once BTC plays ball of course too).

It’s a real shame what has happened here. Could have been a much needed UK listed success story, but it’s a sh*tcoin that has been plundered to near death.

50/50 obvs

Cheers Dags. I’m going to sell up and plonk the dough 50/59 between MARA and CLSK. Wish I’d done that in the late Dec rally tbh, but hey-ho

I’m 50k down in this dog and need to understand how to claw some losses back. Yes, sell and reinvest in other miners. All thoughts appreciated (on behalf of my kid!)

Agreed. Markets got ahead of themselves on the CPI print. The Dot Plot showing only one Fed rate cut this year took things back to earth. Nevertheless, it seems like it does want to break north of the range once the conditions are right. What we really need is a period of price discovery after that to get Bitcoin back onto the front page of the mainstream fin-press and for fees to remain 'higher for longer' (to coin a phrase!)

Well, that didn’t age well….

Apparently the pop was due to a big consolidation of small UTXOs from a large miner therefore causing a demand spike.

Avg fees v reward currently sitting at 39.9% at time of writing. It's bumped the hash price up nicely....are miners away to finally get a period of stronger earnings? 🤞

I’m 60k down here and wondering if it’s time to jump ship and hope for a pump on Mara. It’s useful knowing what the feel is, so appreciate your candour. I will make my mind up by end of August.

Apologies I meant to add another…

6) Retail adoption is dying. Institutional adoption is growing, but slow and careful. It’s getting extremely difficult for retail buyers to ‘ape in’ to Bitcoin as was the case in previous cycles and the money is now flowing to institutions that have ‘off chain’ transactions through custody (eg Coinbase and ETFs) which is making it harder for miners to read what’s really going on, when to invest, read the chain etc etc.

Admittedly, this point is the most ‘deep throat’ but there can be no doubt that Bitcoin is by multiples more controlled than it was in previous cycles. Control is mostly suppression imho.

I’m rapidly coming to the conclusion that ‘centralised’ mining economics are working against every listed company operating in this domain. They are becoming an investment black-hole.

A few things that are leading me down this mode of thought:

1) The monetary inflation and inflationary hedge that the ‘hard money’ Bitcoin thesis is built upon operates as a fairly simple premise at the end of the value chain, but for miners, to the left of that chain, they are still subject to inflationary pressures and savage competitiveness outside of their cohort.

2) The era of large-scale ‘join our club’ collective pools for US miners looks like it’s going to come to pass. Ocean and others are now decentralising mining and this looks like it has some continuing legs. A natural competitiveness that ends oligopoly (or similar organisation). This simply makes centralised (mostly listed) miners to have to fight harder for coins.

3) I see no reason that the Core chain is going to change to allow miners any new premiums or that a consensus will form to allow for current incumbents to gain from it in the bear to medium term

4) Stranded energy is now the standard bearer for utility and most current incumbents at scale are treating stranded energy as a form of ESG. Multiple other competitors globally can eat that lunch and take large chunks of global hash without the capital that centralised miners require.

5) I now believe that a lot of the OG/early adopter Bitcoin community are investing and backing decentralised mining ops and believe that centralisation of miners has not been positive. Some of these folks have voices that will grow in reach and influence. It’s inevitable that they will also try to feather their own nest (eg Swan Mining)

Been having a look through the Argo website this evening.

Takeaways are;

- no reference any longer to Argo Labs, so assume that ill-advised sh*tcoin venture is no more....and good riddance

- page added on 'energy optimization' which is mostly around how mining can achieve flexible loads for grids

- new open position for a Manager of FP&A in Canada added under 'Careers'. Is Jim on his way out?

Difficulty adjusted down by 5.6%....

HC - i'd agree on that. Lot's of credit must go to Jim in the finance seat i think. Overall, they kept the ship sailing which is about all that could be hoped for during the bear. I'm interested to hear from Mr Chippas to see if he gives any indication on future strategy though.

Rewards starting to climb again. I’m not seeing a big uptick in hash yet but I also might not be looking at the figures correctly. Block average is now getting longer.

Agreed. In expecting a bit of pop in price in the listed miners next week. The public markets didn’t really know what to expect at halving, but this is going to be the median fee level for a while yet, that’s good for all of them.

Jimmy Song just published an article in X which is a good explainer on Runes.

Sounds like this will be a temporary bubble: https://x.com/jimmysong/status/1781518918001078441?s=46&t=b5w5XhS1rL5_nwa_nVQ15g

On a related point, see this from Foundry: https://twitter.com/MartyBent/status/1780677459161313620

Hmmm - when are the chartists ever right? Again, not saying things look rosy but there is zero point in taking a single view from some Plan B, self-aggrandizing, tarot card reading 'genius'.