Member Info for Prospero26

Quite right GL…

And it was another multi year weekly closing high ! We are marching up with a lot of energy already. Just imagine the reaction when the rig contract news drops, when we spud CH1 and when those initial drill results come in ! This well is an absolute monster :-)

Morning all.

Yesterday's volume and trading pattern was hard to ignore. Multiple six-figure trades went through, several approaching or exceeding the million-share mark, yet the price finished near the highs and remains at levels not seen for many years. That's not the sort of action you normally associate with weak hands rushing for the exit.

At the same time, the market is sitting on a very obvious catalyst.

The rig contract news can land at any moment.!!!

Once that announcement arrives, the conversation shifts from if CH-1 gets drilled to when CH-1 gets drilled and how HUGE the targets are !

The share price has already moved significantly before the contract, before mobilisation and before spud. The interesting question is not why we're at 2.87p today. The interesting question is where the market prices Aminex once the final pieces start falling into place.

Exciting times. The volume is speaking.

Yes indeed, first revenues from Ntorya will be a significant moment! And with production growth due to ramp up so significantly, this income will very soon be enormous! :-)

2.87p. Let that sink in for a moment.

We're now brushing up against 3p and we've done it before the rig contract, before CH-1 spuds, and before the market has any idea what CH-1 may ultimately prove.

For years, we’ve been told repeatedly by those who evidently have absolutely no idea about this sector, that Ntorya would never be monetised. We were told the pipeline wouldn't happen. We were told Tanzania wasn't serious. We were told to sell, move on and forget about it.

Thankfully, most shareholders looked at the facts instead of the noise.

Today the pipeline is being built. CH-1 is moving closer. Tanzania is actively pushing its gas sector forward. Demand is growing. And the market is beginning to recognise that Aminex is no longer a story about survival; it's a story about execution.

What's most exciting is that the major value inflection points still lie ahead.

The rig contract.

Mobilisation.

CH-1 spud.

CH-1 results.

NT1 workover.

A revised CPR.

Potential production growth from 60 to 140 and ultimately 280 MMscf/d and quite probably more!

Today's move is certainly not the end of the journey. If anything, it feels like the market is finally waking up to where the journey may lead.

The share price has climbed from the depths while the doubters have repeated the same arguments over and over again. Meanwhile, the project has continued to advance.

At some point, price becomes the scoreboard. We're nearly at 3p. The rig contract hasn't even landed yet.

Which raises an interesting question. If the market is willing to push Aminex towards 3p before the rig contract, before CH-1 spuds and before a single CH-1 result is released, where might it trade if CH-1 delivers what many believe it can?

Personally, I think the discussion around 10p becomes very real on a successful CH-1. And if the well materially expands the resource base, confirms stacked pay and demonstrates the full scale of Ntorya's potential, then even 15p starts looking less like a fantasy and more like a question the market will have to answer.

For now, we're approaching 3p, and the most exciting catalysts are still ahead of us. Happy days ! :-)

Share price now starting to break out from its multi year accumulation base building pattern. That’s before the rig contract news (this month), a firm drill date, first gas and spudding of CH1 ! Just imagine where we will be come the end of the year… I’m expect 10p+++

The noise never changes.

Every week it's the same warnings, the same doubts, the same reasons why shareholders should supposedly be worried. Yet while the commentary remains stuck in the past, Tanzania is accelerating into the future.

The Ntorya-Madimba pipeline is being built. The final well in the current M&P campaign appears to be underway. The CH-1 rig contract remains expected any day. Tanzania is openly targeting a massive expansion in domestic gas use, regional exports, LNG development and industrial growth.

Meanwhile, Aminex sits with a carried 25% interest in one of the country's most strategically important gas developments.

It's easy to focus on today's share price. It's harder to step back and appreciate how much has changed over the last 24 months. We are no longer discussing whether Ntorya gets developed. We are discussing how quickly it gets developed and how large it ultimately becomes.

The market will decide the value in time. But when infrastructure is being built, drilling is advancing, demand forecasts are expanding and new capital continues flowing into the sector, I know which side of the argument I'd rather be on.

Steady progress. Rising demand. Major catalysts ahead.

The story is only getting stronger!

While the usual suspects spend their days explaining why Aminex is doomed, the chart continues doing something rather inconvenient:

Making new multi-year closing highs.

Today delivered:

• Highest weekly close in around 8 years

• Highest monthly close in the same period

And that’s before:

• Rig contract award

• CH-1 spud

• CH-1 results

• NT-2 production

• NT1 workover and production

• New CPR

• Meaningful cash flow

• FFD plans and details of new drilling programme

The market can ignore a story. It can ignore a bulletin board. It can ignore an opinion. But eventually it cannot ignore price.

The chart is now saying something very different from the narrative being pushed by the pessimists. Aminex sits at multi-year highs while the largest value catalysts remain ahead. Fact!

That isn’t weakness. That’s pressure building.

As always, everyone must make their own decisions. But if this is what the market looks like before execution begins, it will be fascinating to see what happens when the next pieces start falling into place.

Price talks. Noise walks.

Highest daily close in almost 8 years. Let that sink in for a moment.

After years of delays, restructures, funding concerns and uncertainty… the market is now closing at levels not seen since before the entire Ntorya monetisation pathway became real.

And this time?

• The pipeline is funded and under construction.

• First gas is targeted within months.

• CH-1 is funded and advancing toward drill.

• Tanzania’s national policy now explicitly targets massive onshore gas expansion.

• LNG, industrial demand and regional export demand are all accelerating simultaneously.

• The company is carried into development.

Yet somehow we are told there is “little or no reward here.” Interesting timing for that narrative as the chart breaks to its strongest close in nearly a decade. The bullish setup is undeniable for anyone paying attention.

Even more amusing is watching posters supposedly “retired wealthy first-class passengers sipping Krug on A380s” spending their precious time fighting retail investors on a penny stock board all day long… hilarious :-) People genuinely detached from and non believing in a stock simply move on.

They do not obsess over every tick. They do not post continuously into strength. And they certainly do not try to emotionally suppress enthusiasm during a technical breakout.

The chart is the chart. The policy shift is real. The infrastructure build-out is real. The rerating is already happening. Just look at the chart.. higher highs, higher lows and breaking out of a multi year basing pattern. It’s about as bullish a set up as you could ever wish to see !

And if this is what the market looks like before the rig contract, before first gas and before CH-1… then wow, just imagine what’s coming our way… !!

Bizarre logic really.

According to Sanctuary:

He believed in Aminex enough to invest what must have been a very substantial amount of money years ago, held through all the uncertainty, all the delays, all the dilution, and all the way to c.7p… then supposedly retired from the proceeds.

That means he once had enormous conviction in the asset.

But now, when: the pipeline is actually being built, production is finally approaching, CH-1 targets stacked reservoirs, the field resource estimate is vastly larger, the Tanzanian government is actively pushing development, and revenues are finally visible on the horizon…

…this is somehow the point where the company has “no future”, everything is “priced in” and everyone should sell?

So the asset was worth believing in during its riskiest and least developed phase… but not now, when it is materially de-risked and entering execution?

Makes absolutely no logical sense whatsoever.

The reality is simple: the closer Aminex gets to monetisation and CH-1, the louder and more nonsensical certain posters become.

That alone tells its own story.

Some big buys showing up today and strong volumes being offered in the bid side… the pressure really is building! Rig contract could land any day from now until the end of June! We are getting very close to the real action kicking off here..

Something feels different here. Not because of rumours. Not because of message board noise. Because the pieces are slowly moving from story to execution.

For years Ntorya was about potential. But today we have pipeline construction progressing, contractors mobilised, materials in-country, first gas approaching and CH-1 sitting there as the next major value inflection point, with the CH1 site and pad virtually complete and ready for action!

Meanwhile the market has spent months now consolidating beneath key resistance while repeatedly testing multi year highs. Think about that for a moment. Heavy stock changes hands, supply appears, yet buyers keep stepping back in. Time and time again.

Markets rarely ring a bell and announce the opportunity. They tighten. They compress.

Then suddenly people start asking…”Why is this moving??”

The next phase is no longer about survival. It’s no longer about potential. It is about delivery. And delivery changes everything.

Next up, rig contract before the end of Q2, so very likely dropping within the next few weeks. Very likely to come with a target spud window and the countdown can begin…. !

We now have months of consolidation beneath key resistance whilst simultaneously testing multi-year highs.

That is not weakness. That is pressure building. The setup here is becoming truly explosive.

Just remember: on the day AEX spudded NT-2, the share price was only around 2.2p.

By the time CH-1 spuds, I believe the share price will be significantly higher, and likely much closer to 4p, reflecting:

- the huge increase in mapped reserves,

- the stacked reservoir nature of CH-1,

- rapidly expanding gas demand,

- pipeline completion,

- and first revenues arriving around the same period as the drill itself.

People also forget the backdrop is completely different now.

NT-2 drilled before monetisation existed. CH-1 drills with infrastructure being built, production planned, and the field already moving toward commercial cash flow.

If NT-2 saw the market rerate roughly 3.6x from spud to peak (2.2p to 7.9p), then CH-1, targeting a materially larger and more strategic opportunity, should see an even stronger move. Say 4x or 5x from 4p would represent 16p to 20p highs.

In a high-success scenario involving strong flow rates, stacked pay confirmation, condensate upside, and a major CPR upgrade, I genuinely do not think 15p+ is unreasonable. And this time, with FFD and multiple new wells planned for next year, the rise and growth will be sustainable.

And just think…

There were “strong sell” calls below 1p from people who just completely failed to understand what was being built here. And they still do, or pretend to at least ;-)

So why are you hanging around here wasting your timing and energy talking down a company that’s going nowhere. Better save your energy for something you believe in?

You are so transparent; and for anyone with an ounce of sense, seeing users like you crop pushing a clear agenda is a very bullish indicator!

“Everything is priced in.”

At 2.4p. Don’t make me laugh..

Before:

• the rig contract is announced,

• before CH-1 is drilled,

• before first gas,

• before cash flow,

• before the CPR upgrade,

• before stacked pay is tested,

• before condensate upside is quantified,

• and before Phase 1 / 2 expansion even begins.

That’s not analysis. That’s manipulation disguised as wisdom.

You say the market works 6 months ahead. Correct.

Which is exactly why the share price has already doubled before the main catalysts have landed.

That is the market beginning to price things in, not finishing.

And the “too many shares” argument is one of the weakest cliches on low cap boards. Market cap matters. Asset value matters. Cash flow matters.

Nobody says: “Saudi Aramco has too many shares.”

They ask: “What are the assets worth?”

Aminex currently sits around a c.£100m market cap while holding a fully carried stake in one of the largest onshore gas developments in Tanzania, with infrastructure now physically being built and production targeted within months.

That disconnect is exactly why people are here.

And telling people to “sell and move on” right before the contractor announcement and CH-1 drill is like telling people to leave the stadium in the 89th minute before the winning goal.

Some of us can recognise the difference between consolidation… and completion of a rerate.

Today feels different.

Not because of an RNS. Not because of a rumour. But because the market is finally starting to grasp what’s sitting right in front of it.

2.55 traded today and some decent volume starting to come in. We are testing multi year highs. Breakout territory is now staring us in the face.

And here’s the key thing many still don’t appreciate: The real rerate likely hasn’t even started yet.

Because the next major catalyst isn’t “sometime next year.” It’s the rig contract.

And the company itself has already told us tenders have been evaluated, negotiations are ongoing, contracts are anticipated in Q2 2026, civil works are underway, and materials are already in-country.

That is not the language of a distant dream. That is the language of a project entering execution.

Now layer on top pipeline construction advancing, first gas targeted within months, NT-2 revenue approaching, CH-1 targeting the thicker part of a proven discovery, stacked reservoir upside, condensate upside, further development wells planned, and a Tanzanian government pushing hard for acceleration.

This is why the market is waking up. This is why we have been bullishly consolidating below key resistance for months. Because once the rig/contractor announcement lands, everything changes psychologically.

Suddenly the rig is real, the timeline is real, the countdown begins, and the market starts trying to front-run CH-1.

That’s when FOMO can become violent.

People forget NT-2 nearly touched 8p years ago with less data, no pipeline, no near-term monetisation, no development pathway, and a far weaker macro backdrop. And don’t forget, CH1 is a monster compared to NT2 !

This time we are heading into CH-1 with infrastructure, funding, government backing, and a defined commercial route already in place.

That is a completely different setup. Feels like the market is finally starting to smell what’s coming.

And if the rig news lands while technical breakout momentum is building…

Things could move very, very fast from here. !

This bizarre “theory” from the troll(s) about ARA downing tool at such a critical juncture makes even less sense the more you think about it. It is an insult to any investor with an ounce of knowledge ‘s intelligence, but in case there are any investors out there reading up on this project for the first time, it is worth dismantling it for the complete and utter nonsense that it is..

We are supposed to believe that ARA’s “smart move” would be to deliberately stall Ntorya for years in order to pressure the Tanzanian Government… while at the exact same time continuing to spend heavily on development, convert debt into Aminex equity, complete CH-1 civil works, prepare gas processing infrastructure, procure equipment, engage with ministries at senior level, and move thousands of tonnes of equipment toward Mtwara?

That is not how companies behave when planning an exit strategy or pausing operations indefinitely.

More importantly, the Orca comparison is fundamentally flawed. Songo Songo is a mature offshore producing asset operating under an old legacy framework with long-running payment disputes tied to historical domestic supply structures. Ntorya is an undeveloped onshore strategic growth project sitting at the centre of Tanzania’s future gas expansion plans, with the Government itself funding the export pipeline to Madimba specifically to accelerate production.

The situations are not remotely equivalent.

And the idea that ARA should intentionally “stall for years” is particularly bizarre. Why would ARA risk detonating its relationship with the Tanzanian Government at the exact moment the country is prioritising energy expansion, LNG ambitions, industrialisation and accelerated gas supply? Tanzania is publicly pushing for drilling and production now. Deliberately obstructing that after signing up to the development plan would be commercial suicide for any operator hoping to remain active in-country. The relationship between ARA / Oman / Tanzania is extremely strong and looks set to only continue to flourish as the project progresses…

It also ignores the obvious: the value of Ntorya increases dramatically once production is flowing and reserves are upgraded through drilling. Stalling destroys value. Execution creates it.

The irony is that the same posters claiming ARA may walk away are simultaneously forced to explain away:

- CH-1 site works

- wellhead and infrastructure procurement and preparation

- gas processing facility activity

- ministerial engagement

- pipeline construction

- equipment mobilisation

- drilling acceleration discussions

At some point the troll narrative collapses under the weight of reality. That time is now.

ARA did not farm into Ruvuma, fund the project, support pipeline integration, deepen Government engagement and move toward execution so they could suddenly sit in the corner for two years hoping Aminex collapses.

That theory belongs in fantasy, not serious investment analysis

Charles Santos did not dump some huge legacy holding and walk away from the story. He exercised 5 million compensation options that were awarded in lieu of salary during Aminex’s cash preservation years, paid 0.6p to convert them, sold at 2.1p, and banked the difference. He retains the vast majority of his options. That is a completely different scenario to a director liquidating a major long-term investment because he has lost faith in the company.

More importantly, people seem to be ignoring the timing.

Both Tom Mackay and now Charles Santos have carried out sale transactions to immediately after the Annual Report and just before what is expected to become an increasingly operationally sensitive period for the company. If drilling activity, rig contracting, mobilisation and production preparations are accelerating, then director dealing windows become much more difficult due to insider knowledge/ closed periods. Just how listed company regulation works.

Now compare that with the actual operational backdrop. This is the same period we have Tanzanian Ministry meetings with ARA leadership, discussions around accelerating drilling and production, references to “new wells”, visible advancement at the CH-1 site, pipeline construction activity underway, etc...

Why does this all matter?

Once directors move into prolonged insider periods and operationally sensitive phases, the sale of shares can become extremely restricted under market abuse and insider dealing rules. Exercising options, however, is a different matter. So there is a perfectly rational explanation here that has nothing to do with lack of confidence: generate liquidity now, while sales are still possible, so future option exercises can still be funded later even if share sales become heavily restricted.

To me, this simply looks like a BOd preparing for an increasingly closed and insider-sensitive operational period..

This is the relevant tender from back in April..

Country: Tanzania

Summary: Supply of Wellheads and Christmas Trees

TZT Ref No: 139385235

Deadline: 19 Apr 2026

Supply of Wellheads and Christmas Trees - Tanzania Tender

The ARA PETROLEUM TANZANIA LTD., a Government sector organization in Tanzania, has announced a new tender for Supply of Wellheads and Christmas Trees. This tender is published on TanzaniaTenders under TZT Ref No: 139385235 and is categorized as a Tender. Interested and eligible suppliers are invited to participate by reviewing the tender documents and submitting their bids before the deadline on 2026-04-19.

RE: “What are they talking about? Christmas trees?”

A Christmas tree is the valve assembly installed on top of a producing oil or gas well. It controls pressure, regulates flow and allows the well to safely feed gas into the production and pipeline system.

In other words, it is core production infrastructure.

Now here is the important point that keeps getting missed… The current Ntorya programme (Initial Phase) already has wellheads and key equipment associated with CH-1 and the initial development sequence accounted for and on-site as part of the existing works programme.

So when new tenders then appear referencing additional “wellheads,” Christmas trees and associated production infrastructure in plural form, it naturally raises the question:

What exactly are those for? Because if the equipment for the currently planned CH-1 / NT-2 / NT-1 sequence is already in-country and tied into the active programme, then these newer procurement references increasingly look connected to wider field development activity beyond the immediate initial phase.

And that fits perfectly with everything else already unfolding in plain sight: pipeline construction, processing facility preparation, government meetings discussing acceleration of drilling and production, references to “new wells,” and the phased ramp strategy toward materially larger production volumes.

People need to understand the difference between exploration speculation and active field development.

Once you start seeing repeated procurement activity tied to wellheads, Christmas trees, flow integration and processing infrastructure, you are no longer looking at a company casually “thinking about maybe drilling someday.” You are looking at the mechanics of building a producing multi-well gas development to meet the explosion of gas demand in country.

At this point the argument has drifted so far away from observable reality that it’s becoming difficult to take seriously as genuine analysis.

We are now being told that despite years of investment, seismic acquisition, development planning, pipeline integration, drilling preparation, Ministry-level coordination and ongoing operational activity, there are supposedly still “no signs” ARA is committed to the project.

Really?

ARA only very recently converted its loan into Aminex equity. That alone tells you something important. Companies preparing to quietly abandon a project do not typically increase alignment and deepen their exposure immediately beforehand.

Meanwhile, physical activity continues to accelerate.

Pipeline construction is underway. CH-1 civil works are substantially advanced. The drilling pad has already been substantially engineered and prepared.

Processing facility preparations are progressing.

Thousands of tonnes of specialised equipment are scheduled by ARA through Mtwara Port later this year.

The Ministry of Energy is publicly meeting with ARA leadership to discuss accelerating drilling and production.

The latest communications reference preparations for “new wells”, plural, alongside accelerating production steps.

Yet somehow we are supposed to believe there are “no signs” of commitment?

At what point does scepticism simply become denial and a poorly veiled attempt at manipulation..?

Crusty, you haven’t been following the satellite images of all the civil works being completed at Ntorya then? Plenty of boots on the ground already and operational activity is in full flow.