Member Info for potnak

Well, yes. Father in law died nearly two weeks ago now so more time and energy to look in here. Not negative at all, just seen and heard it all before and its becoming tedious. And the, they want cheap shares statment is rubbish and lazy. Ahfam asked for an opinion and I gave mine. You guys are arguing about 1802 going straight to p1b when we haven't even got an approval for 1a yet, let alone started the trial. I'm happy to wait. Said it before, the most positive here are the ones who are most likely to try and stamp down and undermine posters who are being realistic. 2024, possibly 2025 for 1802 p1b. Doesn't mean we can't get a licence. That's my opinion.

Ahfam is talking about a licence though. I agree if you are already committed to trialing both compounds but if 1802 going straight into patients then 1a might be enough to skip to 1b. For licensing, Most pharmas would want to see an immune response, which is 1b data. I don't know what the difference is between the two compounds but they are different enough to have separate patents. Sareum would have to argue the differences dontbmatter when it comes to safety. IMO 1802 will be trialed in 2024, possibly 2025. Doesn't mean we can't get an early licence but it will only be based on safety not potential efficacy.

Still need proof though, Ahfam. 1801 P1a at least. 1801 P1a and b validates 1802. Not saying they haven't got an 1802 licence lined up but I can't see how it can go into trials until 1801 P1a and possibly b is complete.

They are practically the same compound so if 1801 is safe then 1802 should be too. However, any application for trials with MHRA or any other organisations would need to satisfy that they are safe. It's a double edged sword for investors, cheaper to get there but we'd have to wait until P1a and possibly p1b results are in. That could mean end of 2024 or 25 even. There is also the flip side that if one fails tox or p1b, they both do. The joys of bio investing.

They are in 1b though, showing some good early indications. We'd get a similar deal if Sareum waited until phase 1b to licence. Trouble that is penciled in for 2024. We d need to raise cash or get news on a 737 licence to get there. Tim's "no comment" comment, suggests they know some commercially sensitive news is coming.

Is it not just the expected shipping date, if you ordered some?

Not sure it is rife. World wide average is between 1 and 2 percent of population. Depending n which stars you look at, Australia seems to be between 1.7 and 2.5 percent. I know a couple of people that suffer with it. I suspect we all do. It was probably a no brainier to choose Oz. Diverse population, access to Asian markets and a readily available cohort of patients. Wouldn't suprise me if we saw a Chinese on licence.

Mm's generally don't carry over shares into each day, too much risk involved and it isn't their business. They make money on the transaction. They monitor the markets and usually hold just enough shares to service demand. In a liquid market they might carry some over into next trading day but usually, they bskanec the books each day. You can usually spot book balancing when you see a low number of shares traded. Mm's are a nessesary part of the market and I'll say again. No one ever moans about their games when the SP is rising.

Yep, Brighty. Its a really good find and everyone here should go to the link and read the release, I if they haven't already. So many comparisons to Sareum. Real world value and real world deals.

I'm holidng 50k shares and have accepted the risk of non approval of the CTN is real. The potential upside, for me, is worth taking the risk. The SP could double on good CTN news, conversely, the SP could half on bad or delayed CTN news. As others have said, the ISA deadline is another factor but it all adds up to the same scenario. There aren't enough buyers out there for the mm's to do their thing.

I honestly don't believe there is a market right now. And I think most are thinking it's better to sit on your hands and wait for news. If you already hold, then you have accepted the risk, hold tight until news.

No, Mm's make a market and there is no market. it's as simple as that. Regardless of anything that is said here, there is a cloud of doubt hanging over Sareum. Will they get a CTN approval or will it get pushed back for review like the MHRA did. It's a risky punt that I wouldn't take, even though I'm a LTG. You can't lose money if you are not invested. A CTN approval will ease the uncertainty and we should return to active trading again and we'll hopefully trade over £1 again until licencing news.

I'd be very happy with a 10 million cash injection right now. A deal of this nature might put 100 million or more on the market cap. Sareum struggles to hold onto the gains because of the uncertainty. A deal of this size would give us a 2 year runway to get all compounds into trials.

This is why you are always disappointed, Utar. That would be a very good deal for a phase 1 trial. if I'm honest the £800 million might be a bit on the high side but very possible nonetheless. We could get more after p1b results, that is true but why risk it. The 10 mil upfront would pay for 1802 preclinical and p1. Then licence 1802. It's a simple business model. It's what they are supposed to do.

Andonthisday, yes. If we get through phase 1a, the safety and toxicology studies with no issues. I am expecting a licensing deal of this size. However, the company might hold out until 1b is done. If that goes well, I d expect similar milestones but a bigger upfront. As SOG says, 1802 is the big one here. Every postive step with 1801 validates 1802.

Personally, I think I will be bailing towards the end of 1801 P2. If we get that far, there is no reason to think 1802 won't get that far as well and the market will value the company accordingly. You'd need RMM or one of the other guys to put an estimated value on the company but If 737 is still going, I think we'll be over a billion by then.

Delays aside, the company are playing a shewed game here. They picked an indication that has already been validated with TYK2, they added technical value that sets us apart from the competition with the capsule and they have picked a country that has shown favourable psoriasis trials results just a few weeks ago. All good, they just need the CTN approval. Sooner rather than later.

That's very close to what I think we will get. I think £10 mil up front and £800 mil in milestones. This is for 1801. If 1801 trials are good and they show a good immune response then an 1802 licence for a first in class cancer treatment could dwarf what we get for 1801.

Free ride means you have sold enough to cover your initial investment. For me that was £18k. So if Sareum tank, I lose nothing all I will have is regret. ha ha.

Don't forget to add Worksinphama to that list, Ahfam. He/she put a lot misinformation into this board too.

Yep, I used to work for a software company that supplies EPR software to the NHS. I never worked anywhere before or since that had such big margins and professional services added to quotes. The tax payer is literally paying for software engineers to sit twiddling their thumbs. Wouldnt mind betting that big Tory donors have big share holdings in the company. I once met a, service engineer that told me they are charged 10 x more that we did for adding a PC to the domain. The NHS is a cash cow for these private companies and it's easy to see how budgets run over.