Member Info for potnak

We'll be using the term HODL next. This is crypto for hold, obviously.

It's a crypto term. "Fear, uncertainty and doubt".

As others have said. In the early days of the license, Sierra really did pull out all the stops but it became clear quite quickly that 737 as a Monotherapey wasn't going to cut it. It (probably) wouldn't have made it past P2. To keep it alive, SO narrowed the indications but in doing so the overall potential narrows too. There was some really good research done on combo and triple combo treatments by third parties. The data from this research suggests there are some compelling reasons to investigate the compound in combo trials. Sierra knew what they had (and so did GSK) but it will take a big chunk of cash to prove it, with no guarantee of success. Add to that the dwindling patent length and maybe another 2 or 3 years of trials and you have a big question, even for the biggest pharma's. It's not a question of, does it work. The question is, is it worth it? At the end of the day, it is a business decision as most pharma's have shareholders who want their profit. From a moral standpoint, CRT will do everything it can to market 737 for the benefit of the patients but making a profit for Sareum shareholders will be way down the list of positive outcomes. Ask yourself if you would be willing to give up any profit from 737 to see it in clinics, saving people's lives.

The above might sound negative, but it is not and there are some things that can be done to extend patent life or maybe even fast-track trials. We have no control over this outcome. CPF will do what they think is best for the compound. As per the RNS yesterday. The Sareum board needs to concentrate on commercialising 1801/1802. We don't have a company without them.

SOG, honestly. I don't know where you find the time to research and write your posts. I'm not even sure what your are talking about let alone know what the last piece of documentation was. I'm an investor, I dont need to understand the science, data or processes, just as I don't need to know how to read drilling reports for oilers or geology reports and spondumene levels for lithium mining. I invest based on what the company tells me. This RNS tells me 737 was handed back in Jan and we're only just learning this today, possibly 5 or 6 weeks later. This RNS as if is written today, could have been released as soon as CPF acknowledged the return. I'm not even saying its good or bad. Just there is more to this and we continue our wait.

It says reports, documentation and data. Unless you are suggesting some Machiavellian nonsense going on and they omitted the word 'all' on purpose. Too many scenarios to speculate on but Sareum probably knew of the return but were told to keep quiet. They needed something for the market so we got this RNS.

As always with SAR. It is what they don't say that's important. The RNS is pretty clear, the Clinical Study Reports, associated documents and data related to 737 have been returned to CPF. Same with the rights. However, the RNS doesn't explain what happened in Feb. Did Sareum see that data, did CPF review it? Someone has sat on this news for a month and it isn't Sareum. IMO the important missing piece of news here is the data review. IMO, Aber and Utar are probably nearer the truth than others here. Sareum can't comment on the data because the data is the important bit. Make of that what you will. This is a holding RNS, probably so they can get the final report out of the way. I have a feeling we might get an 1801 RNS this week too. Could be another holding RNS just telling us what we already know but it will clear the way to get the regulatory news out. The cogs are turning, albeit very slowly. Some here need to understand that, when it comes to 737, Sareum are just bystanders here and that includes the shareholders.

Thank you for the thoughts, everyone. We knew from the first diagnosis that it wasn't curable and the best case scenario was to give him more time. The initial treatments of chemo, immunotherapy and radio therapy did stop the tumour growing and it even shrunk a couple of centimetres in the early stages but as soon as he stopped the treatment, the cancer came back with a vengeance. Now, he isn't isn't strong enough to go through the treatments again so just a case of making him comfortable. Would 737 have given him more time, I guess we'll never know but we all have a part to play in making sure we try everything.

Don't know if I have said here but my father in law has nsclc. Diagnosed 15 months ago with a 6 weeks diagnosis period so first symptoms were maybe 17 or 18 months ago. He is now completely bed bound as the cancer has spread. First to kidneys, then just last week, the scan shows it in his bones. Shoulder and hip are worse affected with bones very brittle because they aren't bones anymore. He was initially treated with chemo and immunotherapy that halted the growth for a short while but the cancer came back more aggressive. Early on in the treatment he did ask if there was anything experimental and they basically said no. My dad went with lung cancer too and it is horrible because you have to watch them die. Week by week, day by day. Why am I telling you this? My father in law was treated with what is currently the best available/approved and all it did was slow it down for a while. Hopefully, one of the new inhibitors can slow it down for longer. I don't care if it is 737 or one of the others but if it is 737. That would be awesome.

Yes, SOG. Good to see you back BTW. I did say at the time of the TO, that it didn't make any sense. I also said they would hand it back and they did. One of the few times I have been correct in my Sareum predictions. It doesn't really matter why and we may never find out but I'd love to know why SO didn't or couldn't raise the funds to progress 737. If successful, the potential would have dwarved Momelotinib (can you still say dwarved? Ha ha).

As it stands, I'm hopeful of a positive outcome for 737 but I'm not confident and I guess, until news, that is the general sentiments of the market.

Yeah, I remember this time. Doesn't seem that long ago. Scary thing is the SO spent more time just sitting on 737 than developing it.

Thoth was right though. There was actually a long heated debate of frustration going on, on the morning of the RNS. I was reading through it when I got the little message at the top of the screen. It saud something like 113 new messages. The SP doubled in an instant but gradually fell back because although, IMO, it was a good deal in monetary terms, the milestones were back end loaded so we wouldn't see any of it until P2/P3. There was nothing but waiting to do. And we did and as it turned out the market was correct in its initial assessment of the deal.

Are we in the same position now, who knows but if SO have been telling the truth about 737 data. The upfront and milestones should now be much bigger. I still have the unresolved niggle as to why SO didn't do anything with 737 if the data was good and why did GSK do the same? The market has the same concerns so investors are cautious. They will come if there is a hint of good news.

I'm not really pointing the finger at anyone but if excessive positive posts are allowed here then so are the negative ones. Hardly any positive posters have been correct in their opinions on the decade I've been here. Myself included. Plenty of negative posters have though. There comes a time when you have to think. I'm giving the board too much slack here. As it stands, this week's window for good news has probably gone so we'll go into second week of March and before you know it, it will be the third week. I'm of the opinion, like others here, and to coin a phrase Tim Mitchell once used, that, "no news, is good news". But there comes a point where you have ask yourself if you are delusional.

We can sell whenever we want. We don't because the company keeps throwing us a bit of hope but then don't back it up. The company don't have to give the shareholders anything. They know that posters here will give their opinions here, dressed up as facts that can be discounted by the company because they didn't say it. Its perfect.

I kind of admire the blind enthusiasm of some here but you are doing the dirty work of the board and thats a oneway street to the likes of Val, Hemo, PYC, IMM just to name few where some shareholders need a multibag just to break even. I'm holding until the big one or bust but a question to the gatekeepers on this board, when is it OK to start asking questions? March, April, May even?

And the same question do need to be asked about the TYK2 compounds. This is from a jun 2019 RNS.

Dr Tim Mitchell, CEO of Sareum Holdings plc, said: "The potential for our two preclinical TYK2/JAK1 inhibitors in autoimmune diseases and cancer is gaining increasing clinical validation and we are convinced that SDC-1801 and SDC-1802 represent strong and well-differentiated candidates to address diseases within these areas. We are focused on advancing these exciting preclinical candidates towards human trials as quickly as possible, aiming for first-in-man studies to begin in 2020."

No need to list the reasons why we are 2 to 3 years behind but the shareholders and posters here have every right to ask why.

It's not quite the same as your analogy though. Most long term holders are still in love and hope that the other half does what they keep saying they will. Parker, when asked about about 737 return and data read at the AGM said, "well, it won't be January". Guess what, it wasn't February either. Just how much slack do we give them before it's OK to ask questions again?

All the accounts belonging to Thoth that I know of have gone dark. All around the same time. He was seriously ill and needed organ transplants. I hope he's OK but it isn't looking good.

The board are dammed if they do, dammed if they don't. As others have said the report is just what we already know. Yes, there can be a forward-looking statement to wrap it up but there doesn't have to be. The problem now is, the shareholders know it is due in the next month or so but any news due that could make it onto the forward-looking statement would need to be RNS'd beforehand. Unfortunately, this has been the Sareum way of doing things as long as I have been invested. IMO, they should release the report as soon as it is ready, if that is before any news, take the inevitable hit on the SP so we can move forward. I know I don't have to remind others here but if the CTA had been approved on time and the trials started when they said they would we'd be in the final stages of P1 now, done by April, data readout in the late summer, P2 start towards the end of the year or early 2024. Possibly a licensing deal in there too.

I don't know about £70, that's seems too high but as I said in my other post. The potential is in the size of the deals. Any onlicence deal will likely be worth between £500 million and 1.5 billion in milestones alone. Add the upfront. Again, anything between 10 and 100 million. Then times that by 2 because we have 2 patented compounds up for grabs and you have a potential end of Phase 3 value of between. 1 and 3 billion, likely much more than that. Every milestone reached is going to add 100's of millions to the market cap. Its not about how it will get there. The deal is the deal is the deal. This is why most of the longterm holder are longterm holders.

I dunno. Personally, I think talking about the potential is as, if not more important than the science. Bad science or failed trials would kill the SP in an instant whereas, the potential and FOMO could send it skyrocketing in an instant (even if the science is proven bad in the future). The science doesn't have to work for money to be made here. The current SP is at an affordable level where most investors could make life-changing amounts of profit for not much capital risk. If Sar could get 737 and both TYK2 compounds approved and to market, then we'll have a valuation in the multiple billions if not tens of billions. The likelihood of getting all 3 compounds to market is very low IMO but all we need is the pharma industry to see that potential and pay us to secure the rights just in case it did happen. However, I do agree that it is impossible to put a valuation on the compounds until they are in clinic but we should get something by the end of the tax year. Once that happens then the FOMO will start to kick in. Personally, I think we have deals already on the table but they are dependent on getting CTA approval. Get that and the brakes are off. Open road until the end of P2.

Unless it was in the short term. I think we'd be selling short at 1 billion pounds. I still believe that at the end of successful P2 trials for 1801\1802 plus a buyout or license for 737, we'd be looking at more like 2 billion pounds. we are talking 2 years from the trials starting though. I'd obviously take 1 billion risk-free but there would always be "could we have got more if we waited" thoughts.

Jezz Ahfam. I'll say again. It is the outwardly confident here that are most worried about a couple of negative posters. If you believe what you post is going to happen then, just let it happen. Don't worry about the negative sentiment on the board. Personally, I'm on the fence so I can see both sides. I have been a holder here since the 0.18p days and traded in and out before that, gone through all the up's and downs and now sat on 50k shares, on a free ride I will add. I have also been a cheerleader for SAR, pragmatic and very rarely negative. I have also got things wrong, I fully supported the consolidation that turned out to not achieve what we were sold. I supported it, even though I'd seen what happened on other shares I had. I support it on blind faith. No more blind faith and I have now detached myself from the emotional connection I had to Sareum. There is some great research posted here but some of it is presented with a hefty dollop of sanctimony.

Personally, I watched a £250k profit disappear here and I know some have watched profits valued in the millions disappear. Some here have never even seen a profit. I think that is a good enough reason to have doubts about the company or a least question the constant positive spin.

SOG wrote this yesterday.

"If I took notice of what someone said in the Telegram group and made decisions on what so called ....wombles said I would have no shares left."

Yes, that is correct but you would have had a nice big profit.