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Someone can correct me here but apart from LDG/737 trials. All other combo/triple data is pre clinical, isn't it? This means P1 and P2 will have to be run again and a seperate trial for each combo. Probably accelerated but still time consuming and costly. Lots here critised Sierra and the fact they shelved 737 but they and now CPF/SAR were in a position where they/we have to spend millions to prove the compound has potential. IMO, GSK didn't need that risk so we are getting it back. I'm optimistic about the future of 737 but my timescales for selling are 2025. I hope its is sooner, obviously.

Yeah I used the 3 anogenital responses as that was one of the indications sierra were targeting. But yes, 10%. Still isn't enough to go into phase 3 without narrowing the potential indications to get that response higher. The more I read about this the more I'm convinced it is the reason GSK decided not to run with it. Not being negative. I think there is a good chance that we can do a momelotinib type deal here.

PYC did a bit of work in this area for Sareum a few years ago.

Thanks HBD. So that's a 4.5% response, not great but if we can target the right patients, it could be great. My hunch is GSK weren't interested in 737 because the target indication was too narrow. What the CPF, SAR now need to do is pick the right set of patients to trial it on. Also look at other combinations. Sierra did this with momelotinib, that was a narrow target and smallish (in pharma terms) market size. They still ended up with a 1.9 billion offer though.

Yes, 737. Realised that I put 2801 a millisecond after I hit post message.

There is a distinction though, it got through p2 as a monotherapy. We need to get it back, study the data then decide what to do next. Just like John said at the AGM. I think the best we can hope for is a new partner and some accelerated combo trials. The over enthusiastic here always end up turning what is essentially good news into bad news because they set unrealistic expectations. Getting through Phase 2 doesn't automatically mean phase 3 will go ahead. If they can't meet the primary endpoints of a phase 3 mono trial. There is no point in trying. Better to regroup and go straight for the combo trial.

I think it is important not to get ahead of ourselves here. IMO, Phase 2 as a mono trial is complete but there hasn't been a data readout yet. P2 isn't fully complete until the data readout. We know that as a mono, 1801 isn't great, thats why we have to go down the combo route. Again, IMO, this will involve a combo 1a,b and P2 to be run again. Still a way to go and a pile of cash needed. Let's get it back, go through the data and find a partner for combo trials.

I'm expecting an a deal worth £800 million in milestones, wouldn't like to call the upfront. The data readout is really important and we shouldn't want the board to rush that. Personally, I think the indications might have narrowed somewhat and patients will need to be targeted with combos for specific types of cancers. And we wouod need yo run trails with carfully selected patients This could explain why GSK didn't want to progress the compound. I'm still expecting a market size in the billions though.

Falkirk - most of the shares are held in private hands and most PI's know what the fair value is. So it would be difficult to get a low offer through the voting. There doesn't appear to be anyone accumulating or we would have had a TR1. We have also seen who the big holders are. Once we have licences for all 3 compounds, 2 of which will come this year. We have a buyout figure. Any offer after that would have to take into account the milestone payments and maybe even crystalise them for a successful vote. I'm expecting SAR to have a potential 2 billion or more in milestones available once all three compounds are licenced.

This thread will magically disappear soon. Do begire it goes.

Anyone for a 11am RNS :-) by some calculations today, the 12th is the earliest we could hear about the 737 return.

£1 billion nicely works out to Thoths famous 28p target. However, things have moved on. I think we can expect a 2 billion valuation by the time 1801 and 1802 are in P3. Up to 4 billion they look promising. Few years to wait but I'm sure the board has a number in mind where buyout offers should start.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/01/02/red-tape-means-uk-patients-risk-missing-breakthrough-medicines/

Just checked in a speed scrolled through all the holiday posts! Didn't even realise Parker had purchased shares as I haven't been looking at emails either! Good to see some positive director moves and some positive, bullish sentiments posted here. Could be a very interesting Start to the year.

Yes, cuts recovery times but if seems, if you at risk of dying from Covid. That risk is still there and doesn't alter, at least where this treatment is concerned. Still a gap in the market.

Same as Laz, it's a bit of a no brainer. There are 2 bits (potentially 3)of expected news that will come in the 1st quarter of 2023. You only need one of them to be good to double your money or more from here. I purchased another 2k shares over the last couple of weeks. As soon as Christmas is underway and after my mot next week. I'll be buying more in anticipation of a quick turn around trade.

Hi Billy. Thanks for your reply. FWIW. I actually like how you rub some up the wrong way. My point is. We shouldn't have to rely on the research here. When they issue the RNS for the 737 data read. They need to be clear what CPF got back and where we fit into that deal. If the market is happy with the RNS. The buyers will come.

It's a good question Blastoid. I don't know the answer but I guess Its like when you take paraceatamol for a headache. It blocks the pain receptors but any other pain you have should be milder too? If a patient did have Psoriasis and RA and 1801 worked on both then both would be treated at the same time, probably. I guess they target and monitor the immune response not the actual condidtion. The trial would not accept patients with multiple autoImmune conditions .

Thanks, PCS. This needs to be relayed to the market in an RNS with the next 737 update.

'Our Understanding' is doing some heavy lifting here. Same as 'We Believe Sareum made a compelling case' in the CTA RNS.

I think a lot here have very short memories. This time last week we were in danger of slipping into the 60 or ever 50p range when less than 3 months ago we were bouncing between 150p and 200p. We constantly give the benefit of doubt to the board and we find our own truth in the scientific papers and contracts. I'm not qualified to give any advice on contracts or patent law, I don't suspect many of us are. Same with the science. We can all read the contracts and find the bits we want to believe. The 'truth' needs to come from the board in a clear and undeniable message to the market.

I am expecting a full data readout for 737 by the end of Feb but we may get an earlier RNS to state that it had been handed back to the CPF.

The AGM performance was just that, a performance. Parker is a professional so you would expect him to come across well when under pressure but the board now need to up their game. No disrespect to Billy B but I have no idea who he or she is.
Investors shouldn't have to be reading contracts to see if Parker was correct. And we certainly shouldn't be taking advice from anyone here that the contract is airtight. We have the NEDS and 2 brokers\advisors for god sake, we pay them to do this. As I said, I'm not after a running commentary but the next 737 update needs to be clear and concise so new investors can feel confident enough to buy in. We absolutely, should not give the board an easy ride. We've done that too much over the years and by my reckoning, we are approx 30 months behind the schedule the board set in 2018.

You can say that again Mayhem! what a rollercoaster the last 18 months have been. I'm optimistic, always have been but I'm not counting my chickens just yet. In the ininterest of shareholder engagement. Things we need confirming are:

737 data review. IMO, i don't think GSK purchased 737 as part of the SO deal, the deal wasn't big enough. They got it by default. They must have seen the data but not assigned any short-term value to it. Not necessarily negative and this happens a lot in the pharma world. GSK needs quick wins and 737 isn't a quick win so they are giving it back. We need to know realistic outcomes and timelines. Unless we hear otherwise, I'm personally not expecting anything until the end of Feb. We might get an RNS stating the compound has been handed back though.

737 patent confirmation. I think we need this clarifying. I would hope that Parker knew what he was saying when he said "we get it all back". It woukd be nice as part of the data review, if they could give us some confidence that there are no patent issues.

1801 CTA - not after a running comentary on this but please no more ambiguous RNS\updates.

1802 - move it along but don't trip over the same rock twice. :-)

What I really want for 2023 is for Sareum to stick to the business model and license the compounds. That's the business model I invested in. I don't want them to become a late stage development pharma. Licence and move on to the next compound please.