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My guess is the delay, if indeed there is a delay. Isn't to do with the compound but with the funding of the trials. This cash has to be ring fenced for the trials and without a licence or other funding is will leave us exposed for the day to day running of the company. It seems obvious now but the HNWI investors probably knew they'd be paying for the trials. I'm expecting a big RNS or 2 that will explain everything. They must be confident of 2022 start because they reiterated that in the last RNS so it has to be soon.

SCH and therein lies the dilemma for the altruistic amongst us. We can't be hoping for a multi billion valuation but be shocked about the cost of the treatment or tactics by big pharma to protect those same profits. If they gave drugs away at cost, we'd make no profit and then wouldn't invest to start with. For me, there is no moral highground to take. I'm aware that by wanting a profit, some people will not be able to afford the drugs and that I'm part of the problem.

Yep, Desa. Lots here only think in terms of one big deal. When the reality will be £5 a share then £7, £10 and so on. Pick an exit/risk strategy that works for you. I'm expecting a licence for 1801 will be worth upto a billion in milestones. No reason to think 1802 will be any different.

IMO Parker was saying that SAR will move to the next stage where it makes a profit from licences and milestones. No more placings etc.. No immediate take overs. This has always been the plan BTW. IMO. There could be a company restructure at some point in the future as you'd need a mechanism to turn the the upfront and milestones into divis. So a finance team at the very least. Slow and steady wins the race.

How can Mm's manipulate the SP so much on no news. I blame PH. :-)

Well, I still think we'll be valued at £2 billion in a couple of years. £1.5 billion if 737 doesn't pan out. So I'm looking fir £20 to £30 a share. I'll trade the up and downs along the way though.

Yep, just after 11. The mm's will now balance thier books.

On AIM. Every sell has a buy. Mm's generally don't hold a float. They will balance the books by the end of the day. They might be expecting an 11am RNS so will hold onto them until 11am. Try and buy at 10:55, I bet you won't be able to.

I don't think that a CTA approval has to be RNS'd. The big pharmas don't do it. They roll up all updates into a quarterly announcement. My guess is we are waiting on the funding part of the CTA to be finalised. Maybe there is an approval in principle type thing, full approval once funding is secured. 737 has thrown a spanner in the works. So that might be adding further delays. That being said, I think there is high probability that we will get something today. Its all guesswork.

Warthog. Im not sure they can do it and if they do miss another deadline. The market will punish us again. I'm kind of thinking there is a plan of sorts, mainly because the reality will be a **** show.

Laz. I'll be done with AIM when I sell my SAR holding. Not because I think it is corrupt. Just because the risk/reward doesn't stack up anymore. The posters on most share forums would rather believe there is corruption in the markets than believe the product is flawed in some way. If you believe there there is corruption, why on earth would you willingly leave your money in? That's a rhetorical question BTW.

The Mm's can make money either way. Up or down. The flow of trades dictates which way they go. Lots of sellars and the price will fall, lots of buyers and the price will rise. The SP will stabilise when there are no more sellers. When it does, the Mm's will be making a market for another share. Like I said there are some positives here. No shortage of buyers to hoover up the sells shows there is still confidence.

I'm not saying the market is clean. I'm saying SAR wouldn't be worth going to prison for. Especially as the SP drops like clockwork in between news anyway. We have 3 active compounds, one has a big cloud of doubt hanging over it. The market reacted to it and we lost a good 30% off the value of the company. No conspiracy, no illegal manipulated trades. Just MM's doing what they get paid to do. Said it before but will say it again. Not one person complained when a £100 million plus was added to the market cap on the back of £5 million being invested. Mm's did a great job there.

Transmission was never a requirement for approval. I can see the legality of the vaccine passports being questioned but not the effectiveness of the vaccine. Unless our our super duper capsule can stop the spread of Covid, this is a non story and it dimminishes the compound if you are leaning on the Covid angle to point out how good it is.

What people are saying PH are doing is illegal. Its complete nonsense IMO. The drop is because there is doubt with one of our compounds. It will keep dropping until we get an update from the company. The good news is, plenty are willing to buy these sells. So there is still some positive sentiment out there.

HBD, Thank you. And Ahfam, you're losing the argument by using Covid. That ship has sailed. Covid came two years too early for us. Or we were two years too late.

I still think £2 billion in a couple of years. SRA737 only made up £400 million of that in my own fag packet valuations. It could easily still that if it gets into P3 as a combo. £800 million for each TYK2 at the end of P2 and £400 million for SRA737 in P3. If we don't get taken over by that point then who knows how high we could go if you are willing to risk the binary outcome of a P3. 2 to 3 years to get to this point, IMO.

SOG. I'm thinking they will do a small focused P2 combo. Basically to gather enough data to support licensing the compound. Funding wise, could be a JV or a placing. IMO, they should go all in. Raise enough cash to see everything in trials. The job is done then. The compounds work or they don't. Couple of years to find out.

HBD - it looks very fishy. More like a conscious decision to run the clock down. No point in speculation, better to wait to see what SAR and CPF have to say. It won't be long as the next update is due in the next couple of weeks.

I reckon Tim and the board do feel deflated at times. It must be like wading through treacle trying to balance shareholder sentiment and expectation against the reality of what is one of the most cutthroat industries on the planet. Most of the bad sentiment comes from expectations from the investors that the board has no control over. However, they do miss deadlines, literally, all the time but IMO, that is because of the balancing act they are doing above. If Tim came out and said we will be in a better place in 2024, he and the SP would be slaughtered but it would be the truth. So he can't really win. As you say we are back to where we were in April just before the GSK news. No major disaster but a worry all the same.