Member Info for potnak

It might be an option the board look to take but IMO it would be for less than we will be worth in 2 years' time. Also, why would any pharma commit to a buyout when they can sit and wait to see the results of P1 for free? I have no doubt that the board have been busy discussing the next steps since they learned that SRA737 was coming back.

Just to prove i'm not being negative and this has always been my view. Here is a post of mine from the 14th of April. Not long after we heard the GSK news.

I'm not a Sierra holder but yes, Basser. I think you have been sold short. I honestly don't think that GSK want SRA737. They will either hand it back or sell it on. I think the price they paid reflects they don't see the value in SRA737. The problem for anyone who takes it on is its going to be a money pit to get it through trials and GSK have a need for drugs that are going to start paying for themselves straight away. For Sareum, yesterday's news just gave us more questions and more waiting because GSK are big enough to just sit on it so no one else can have it.

SOG, honestly. I know less than f all about the science but the same can be said about oil drillers, lithium miners and other pharmas. It didn't stop me from investing in them either. My career and knowledge are IT-based and it's the one area I never invest in because my knowledge clouds my judgment. Can't think of any tech-based stock I have ever made a profit on. Do you think Peel Hunt clients say "but what about the science?" nope all they want to know is will the price go up. Can the company keep to the deadlines it sets for itself? I haven't once said that SRA737 is not worth developing and The CHK1 "science" doesn't automatically apply to SRA737 until proven in the clinics. The fact is, based on the data already known, Sierra couldn't secure investment to develop SRA737 and GSK didn't want it either. What is so bad about questioning that? The market has clearly taken SRA737 out of the equation for now and I think we've been quite lucky it wasn't more so yes, it is on the shelf until we are told otherwise. Might be next week, it might be next year. I have nothing against your posts or any other posters on this board but there is no point debating the science with me as it isn't a priority for me. It doesn't matter how good the science is if we can't make a deal. A better debate would be how Sareum survives with 3 active compounds and only £4 million in the bank. I'm hoping this question is answered in the next couple of months.

Another post I can agree with, Badsterman. Although it isn't binary until P2 going into P3, IMO. Still options to take profit as we clear certain milestones.

Yes, i'd agree with your post, Luton. It's ok to say publicly that yesterday's news was a bit ****. Pretending that everything is ok is just covering the cracks and it doesn't help. What the company does next is the big question Tim needs to answer. And he needs to answer it quickly.

It's the way the ultra-optimistic here can just pivot in what they believe. in the early stages of licencing, Pronai\Sierra were the best thing since sliced bread until they stopped developing SRA737, get it back was the cry, and then GSK enter the mix with virtually no mention of SRA737. That didn't matter, we no longer wanted it back in fact GSK we're probably going to buy Sareum outright. Then Sierra (Not GSK) handed the compound back. Now, within minutes of the news, we have people posting, this is great news, we should have taken it back before now. There have been quite a few red flags with this compound. For a start, after a lot of ramping here, it didn't show much promise as a monotherapy. The indications got narrower and narrower. Then with increasing scientific validation of CHK1, Sierra struggled to secure investment to take it forward, another red flag. Why? Then we have one of the largest phamas in the world, seemingly having an option to take SRA737 forward but they didn't. Why? I'd rather know the uncomfortable truths and will read any posts that asks an uncomfortable question.

Hi Stoney. I dont think anyone said it was worthless. I certainly didn't but for whatever reason. One of the biggest pharmas in the world decided it wasn't for them, even with all the cash and expertise they have available for development. I don't think they ever wanted it. The sum they paid for SO wasn't enough for a P3 and a promising PS asset. It is what it is until we hear otherwise.

Again, not being negative here. GSK would have stepped up if they thought it had legs. No way would they just let the clock run down. We shouldn't rush this. Tim and John along with the scientists at CRT need to design a combo trial that can be focused on a specific indication that has the best chance of success. Forget market size etc. Laser focused and maybe even a joint venture. We only need on indication to stick.

Possibly a LTH who has had enough.

Well, the SP has held up quite well today. I expected a bigger drop TBH. Mild or not, it is a setback and it means more waiting until we find a partner with deep pockets and the drive to laser focus in on an indication that we can target with a combo trial. Basically, do what Sierra did with momelotinib.

Whilst I agree there is some intrinsic value in SRA737, the GSK scientists didn't see the value we believe is there. This isn't some ploy to get a cleaner contract or some backroom deal. GSK had SRA737 for peanuts and they decided to give it back. We have to assume they know what they are doing and we now have to be objective and treat it as shelved until we are told otherwise. I don't want to bash the amateur scientists here as I think I was misunderstood last time but you have to base your investing strategy on the business acumen of the board, not the science.

IMO, I think GSK had already made the decision before the 1.9 billion offer. I said it multiple times that the price didn't add up for two compounds. I also said it would be sold on or given back and here we are. Nothing has changed. I still believe SRA737 is worth £800 million going into P3 combo trials. They just need to find a partner with deep pockets who is willing to push this through multiple P3 combo trials. I also believe that Tim and Co knew this was coming and that's why we haven't had news of the CTA yet. It a wheels within wheels thing and they are all slowly turning.

I'm a realist.my view is hold. Not sure I would buy today. Think we will see a couple of bounces.

Spurs. I agree. It would be unheard of to get 4 compounds through to market. History tells us that some if not all will fail. Plenty of profit opportunity on the way though.

Generally, when you licence a phase 2 asset. The upfront is chunky. Dare I say say enough to put both TYK2 through to the end of P1, possibly P2.

Well, I'm not entirely supprised by this news. I did say a few times that the GSK deal didn't add up. If one good thing comes out of this. Its that any future buyout type deals will be much cleaner without SO or gsk in the mix. I also believe that the 737 question is the thing holding everything else up. Let the dust settle and let's move on.

Even the bravest of traders wouldn't sell this close to 11am on a Thursday! Ha ha. If no news today you will get in for less towards the close.

Is he active on ADVFN, I never go there. His name is Mrs apes laptop or something like that.

Not been active on twitter since June. He did say he was seriously ill and needed organ transplants.

I never do more than 10% of my holding sometimes only 5%. My last little trade a few weeks (months) back made enough profit to buy an extra 300 shares when I bought back in. Not a lot but at £5 that will be Christmas paid for if I sell them. And yes I do think we will reach £5 at some time between now and Christmas.