Member Info for potnak

The question is where do you realistically think the SP is going on good news? £20 makes today's sp look really cheap, £4 not so much.

To be completely honest here. I'm here to make money, I'm not here for the science or for some other altruistic motives. What folk really need to understand is, that the chance of success is still the same as it was a year ago when we were pushing 10p (£5 in new money). The risk of failure is still the same too, nothing has changed other than you are now a year nearer whatever goal you have set for yourself. If you don't yet hold any shares but are trying to work out the best entry price, ask yourself what your target sell price is. If it is £5 or more then what are you waiting for? We will go to £5 on any piece of tangible news and once safety is assured, we will go past £10 or £15 way before the binary win\lose point comes. Sareum will be a £2 billion company before the end of P3 trials. Afterwards, depending on trial results, they could be worthless or double that. There is a question when Bitcoin investing "when is the best time to buy Bitcoin?" the answer is always, last week. At Sareums current stage of development, it's the same answer.

Kat - the answer is very simple. Potential to multi-bag. some of the LTH here could get very
close to that mythical 100 bagger that we all dream of. New investors at today's SP here could easily 10 bag or more within the next 18 months. However, this is AIM so there is a big chance that you will lose all your investment too.

Not desperate at all. Predicting Buy and Sell points is a basic investing skill everyone should have a go at. Imagine if Bugsy had found a trial with a November start date based in Manchester?

not that i don't believe you but why would Sareum be block booking 737?

interesting bugsy. Do you have a link for that?

This 100% as soon as it is clear that 1801 is safe then whoever is in the wings waiting will step with the license deal.

Honestly, Julie. I think it's a case where we are that near to good news (within 6 months) that they can't say anything that wouldn't give the game away.

Hope so! sold a few this morning and will buy back on any sizable drop. We will get a license as soon as it is clear that 1801 is safe. I'll stick my neck out and say license before Xmas. We should have news on 737 by then too. If we get both these, IMO we are looking at £10+

There was nothing wrong with the presentation. The price has dropped because punters don't know how news is released. You will never, I repeat never hear any news at an investor meeting or AGM. They will only ever present news that is already in the public domain. I sold a few this morning to trade with but I'm still very happy with my sizable pot here.

Entirely as expected so far.

Tomorrow is a presentation on we already know, some context around how TYK2 could work with psoriasis, John will do this and perhaps some loose timescales. Anything else would need an RNS. I wish we wouldn't build these things up just to be disappointed. Take it as it is intended, it's an update on progress with news to follow in the coming months.

Azz - asking a question about how the board plan to deliver shareholder value is a perfectly legitimate question to ask. The company's business model s based on developing drug candidates and licensing them at late pre-clinical or early clinical stages. That's exactly where we are, right now. If the board decides to do P1 on their own, Why is that? We know the answers but they should explain why too.

We have trusted science for long enough now. We need to know if the board can add value by getting some deals done. The LTH holders are still doing ok here but there are plenty here that are up to 50% down on this time last year. I'll say it again, this isn't a negative post, they are great on the science, we now need Parker and the NEDS to come up with the value.

cobalt. It's like when you need a S H 1 T. The further you are away from the toilet, all is fine and rosy but the nearer you the toilet, the more anxiety of will you make it in time ramps up and up. Currently, we're in a service station standing in the queue behind a fat lorry driver moaning about Brexit. You just need a few more seconds of willpower and you will be ok.

Agree with Basser. No news until after the IM session. On Thursday, they will set out the 'official plan' and maybe some timelines. We have a decent cash runway but it won't last long once the trial starts so i'm assuming they will address this point by saying something along the lines of they are exploring ways to fund the next steps, without giving anything away. Maybe we should coordinate some well-written questions instead of the usual are we going for a TO etc.. We need to ask questions they can answer rather than questions we know they can't.

If all goes to plan, what are the timescales to commercialisation?

The website states that you aim to develop programmes to pre-clinical/
early clinical development. That is where we are right now. What does success look like?

We have some great posters on this board and more than a few of you will know how to phrase these things in a way that is hard not to answer.

Get your thinking caps on folks.

Yes, looks like all the other indications a patents for came afterwards and we, the LTH went down the wrong rabbit hole. The psoriasis indication has been at least 10 years in the making and the data has probably been shared many times with interested parties. I found the RNS because I was looking at the timescales from entering P1 trials to getting a licence deal. It was May to September. So approx 4 months, give or take. Just enough time to show it doesn't kill patients but before any type of efficacy is shown. SRA737 CTA was Feb 16, approved Apr, trial started May and licence came in Sept. 7 months. Same timescale is Feb 2023 for a licence. I have a feeling it will come before then though.

It was under our noses this whole time. This RNS is from 2014! https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SAR/promising-step-in-psoriasis-drug-development-yn5cm3i41fc909x.html

Everyone on AIM looks for the magic 10 bagger but it's always speculation and what's if's. Sareum have now got a roadmap to a 10 bagger even from here. It won't happen over night, it will be a roller coaster at times but there is a plan and once safety is assured it will be relatively risk free until P2 data is in. By that time 737 and 1802 will be moving too and we might be looking at a 20 bagger or more.

Yes, Aber! It will be along the lines of the chk1 timescales. Start P1 if there are no major complications, the licence will offer will come in. I reckon low ish upfront and big backend milestones.

I think most here knew or had a feeling the CTA was priced into the SP. For the holders here, today's news was really significant. Not only did we get confirmation of forward movement but we also got the direction we are going in. We now have a market size for a 100% owned compound and It's a big market size with blockbuster written all over it. The accounts amongst us now have a figure to base future value on and from that we can estimate what a TO value might be. IMO we won't see any major rerate (in terms of 1801) until phase 1 is underway or complete. A licensor might want confirmation of safety before they come up with the cash. Even better, if the Phase 1b endpoint is met e.g. the people on the trial show a good immune response, the SP will go nuts and that's when the big pharma's will take notice. It really isn't long to wait for that to happen. In the meantime, we still could get news on 737 and or an II significantly buying in. Don't worry about the SP or the market catching up. Unless you were going to sell under £10, it makes no difference to you.