Member Info for potnak

Yes, the LTH and some of the new investors know what this means. Ignore the noise. Sit tight. If it get through P2 then 1801 will be worth 2 billion on its own. Doesnt matter if that's via a licence, self funded, placing or a TO. As RMM says, we now have a price tag for one of our flagship compounds.

100% Luton. The clock is ticking down. They could delay the half-year report, they have done it before and it was RNS'd but we will get news, good or bad, soon. When I say bad, all I mean is more delays to the CTA process. I can't see why that would happen though. My gut feeling is the CTA has been designed with whoever is going to license it from us. They are the experts Tim eluded to.

I check every morning at 7 am and again around 11am. I have been known to trade a few here and there though so it makes sense to keep an eye on the sp. I don't worry about the intra-day fluctuations, as I said above. These are opportunities to trade a few. I bought a few more yesterday because I knew the MM's would take it down in the afternoon and I might buy a few more today. I now have a little pot of 2.5k shares that I will sell at £3. It keeps me interested while we wait.

There are two certainties here. The deal will be the deal whatever the SP is beforehand and if the compounds don't work, we'll lose more or less everything. Comes to terms with both these and your stay here will be a more pleasant one.

How long have you been here Luton? We have an HNWI who bought in at almost £5 a share. IMO, £10 is the minimum. I think Ahfam is right with £20 but it's not necessarily low ball. My complete guesstimate based on similar deals Tim and the board have pointed out to us is. £800 million for TYK2 and we have two of them plus our share of SRA737, say another £200 million and that's 1.8 billion IF (big if) all compounds through P2 unscathed. I think we could be looking at anywhere between 1 and 2 billion. We might be 3 years away from that kind of valuation though or it might happen next week, we just don't know.

personally, I'm not anticipating any news from GSK but some are and it might drive a bit of volume later. 5 trades by lunchtime is super low volume even by SAR's standards. like I said. I think it's a case of locked and loaded but the SP could go both ways.

It's almost as if everyone is locked and loaded. Wonder if the MM's might do a raid on stop losses in anticipation of GSK news tomorrow?

18 days until my summer holiday. Just saying.

You don't need to take a website down to update it. If it was down, probably just an issue with the hosting company. It'll have been DNS issue, it nearly always is.

Beer o'clock, already! I need SAR to be approx £15 a share before I can have beer o clock before 12 on a Thursday. That would be me retired. I'm hoping for £20 plus though.

Who's for an RNS this morning? Looks like the Mm's will exploit the ones who think it may happen.

Nice one, Notalot! Not in the femur news, takes a bit to break a femur, hope you are OK.

"Now where would we find expert chemical engineers who are able to deliver such a thing?!"
Do we need to keep our eyes open for a crystallisation of a compound update in GSK's updates? :-)

Nice one HBD! A longer patent term increases the chance of a buyout IMO.

The huge potential is also the biggest enigma. If SRA737 is that big, why sit on it for years, why let it go peanuts? Every year that passes is a year off the patent. This begs the question, can a combo be protected by a patent? Has this been Dilly's plan all along? So many unanswered questions around 737, i just don't think about. I'd be more than happy for GSK to buy =buck the licence.

Just to expand on this. IF GSK were to buy back the licence for 737 thinking it is a dead cert to get to market The buyout price would be based on the projected sales. The market sizes for some of the indications are 10 x my examples. I think a licence buyback is a slim possibility but it defo is a possibility all the same. What price though? i think 2 billion is too high but it would have to crystalise the milestones and compensate for missed royalties so 1 billion? maybe?

Hi HBD. I've always assumed it's the top one. So 27.5% of approx £280 million in milestones and 27.5 = £77 million for SAR.
We'd also get 27.5% of any royalties, for ease let's say the royalties are 10% of 1 billion in sales PA. That would be 100 million in royalties, Sareum would get 27.5 million of that until the patent runs out. It would be a divi of approx 39p a share. Not to be sniffed at.

It's just a tweet! No wonder the mm's can do what they want with the sp.

Mafuta - didn't Tim say in one of the presentations, earlier this year that PH had nothing to do with the consolidation? I actually don't belive PH have anything to do with the SP drifting lower. How could they, how could one of 6 Mm's that cover SAR manipulate the price? PH involvement is curious but I think it coincided with a no news cycle and the SP always slips when news dries up. I think we're struck between a rock and a hardplace. In a good way though. IMO, we are talking to potential licensors but if that doesn't work out we'll get an II's via PH. Confirmation and approval of the CTA might be the missing piece but it also could be a successful P1. Either way, by the time 2023 starts we should be in a much better place and further down the road.

Hi NDR, he gave his reason in the post. I happen to agree. Running the trial without a licence in place or at least in negotiation, leaves us exposed both financially and technically. We need to get 1802 into clinics too. We can't do that without a cash injection from somewhere. If it isn't a licence, it will have to be a placing. That's fine BTW but shareholders need to be aware what "holding out" actually means.

Yes, SOG. Efficacy in P2 will be a secondary endpoint but if patients show an improvement at any dose. The cat will be out of the bag. For my fag packet valuations, I'd agree with your numbers, I just times it by 2 to include 1802 and add sra737. That's where I get 1 billion by the tone we start P2, 2 billion on a successful P2.