Member Info for potnak

Sareum and Galapagos go way back

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/galapagos-acquires-structure-based-drug-discovery-from-sareum

Galapagos also have a TYK2 that has passed P1b in psoriasis but is a bit meh with only a 40% success at low doses. They are looking for some MA activity to kick start their pipeline again. Sareum’s TYK2 in next gen and hopefully free of the JAK issues with early TYK2 compounds.

Galapagos also has a dev partnership with Gilead who have two places on the galapagos board and Gilead, weirdly bought into Sierra when they had practically given away momelotinib to them for nothing. Why? Was it to get access to SRA737 as some here thought at the time?

And lastly, Galapagos are based in Belgium and we appear to have a HNWi based in Belgium too. Tenuous but I'm betting there is something real in there.

I agree with your timescales for getting to market but the sell price is relative to your personal buy price. If the sp gets to £10 the LTH in under a penny have 20 bagged and lots us will begin sell big chuncks if not all of our pots. I reckon there is a 10 bagger from here in a year to 18 months.

Galapagos have started up M&A again. They need to build a new pipeline with promising drugs. I'm not going to go into the many tenuous links between Sareum and Galapagos but they are there. https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/galapagos-finally-takes-ma-plunge-spending-251m-car-t-push

Yep, Krone. I'm not saying there is no potential. It just needs to be with the right team, with the cash, knowledge and compound to give it a fair chance.

You are getting dangerously close to revealing actual facts, Billy. be carefull! :-). The GSK bid doesn't make sense to me. Momelotinib has been given fast track status in I think a 200 million per year market and has a potential 18-year patent. That should account for the 1.9 bn $ price tag right there. GSK\Haleon are in need of some quick wins and Momelotinib could start earning its keep relatively quickly. It also fits nicely into their blood cancer offering and pipeline. I get it. I get the value assigned to it. But where does SRA737 fit in? If it isn't factored into the value, why not? I think they will sell on or on licence it for use in a combo. No dev costs to pay but chunky royalties that could dwarf Momelotinib sales, IF it gets to market. Win\Win. I'm speculating, just like everyone else here but I don't believe that GSK or Sierra have assigned that much value to SRA737 mainly because it needs more trials (with combos) and that takes time and money.

Lolz, trying to work out what mid-year means. It is intentionally vague. 30 days on either side of June 30th is mid-year for me. I'd rather we get some other snippets of news to raise the SP to give a better base to build on before the CTA is announced. The tweets are designed to stimulate some interest. Just leave them to it.

Thoth! the most sensible post in days! The deal is the deal is the deal. People don't stop getting ill or dying in a recession. The compounds will have an intrinsic value as each milestone is reached. The SP will rerate as each tangible milestone is reached (or failed). The only downside to a Bear market is there might be less competition in potential partners but any pharma sitting on huge piles of cash will be seeing that cash pile being eroded through inflation. Better to buy something of value and ride it out. The phama money is still out there and will be looking for a relatively safe home for a year or two.

I'd be very surprised if Sareum’s NEDS did any more than a couple of hours work per week. NEDS are usually appointed to satisfy some regulatory needs or to open doors through their relationships. Parker has taken some stick over the years but he has an impressive CV and if we are talking to phama's. He will be instrumental in the corporate finance discussions. Parker taking on a new NED role could mean he has less to do now?

If you check the T&Cs. Posts get removed for a number of reasons, not just because someone reports you. Interestingly though. This rule caught my eye so we'll see if you broke that rule.

"Must not disguise the origin of any content and not impersonate any person or entity or misrepresent any connection with any person or entity"

For me, the main thing that differentiates Sareum from other AIM minnows is, IMO. There is a potential to 10 bag from here before any real risk of failure.

Maybe a best in class TYK2 or two is what Galapagos need to turn around their fortunes?

Globe. I can only offer my opinion. No one really knows. I spent a few years here listening to the enthusiastic posters and dreaming but being 250k in profit on last years high and then watching that dwindle has focused my mind somewhat. I'm still gambling but it's based on knowing the size of other deals against and the probability that it will happen. I don't plan to be here when the binary choice of win/lose comes along. That might not be that ong for 737. Within 2 years, I'd say.

Globe. The timelines are somewhere Inbetween, its gonna happen next week and it's gonna happen in 5 years. IMO, well have a licence deal for 1801 by the end of the year and we'll be end of P2 by the end of 2024. That's when the big money will kick in. I still think SRA737 could get us to £5 y just being mentioned and £10 if GSK get an orphan fast track. If that happens then it could be a perfect storm in 2024.

Billy. Agreed. Once we get a licence deal for 1801 we'll have a better idea of what a buyout might look like. Similar deals have been made that could see us sitting on a billion in milestones and double digit royalties. We will also know the indication we are targeting and the market size for that. X that by 2 because there is no reason to think 1802 is worth less 1801. Then we have a potential figure, If everything goes right. This is where Thoth is coming from. The potential could easily be £12 bn. So what is the risk adjusted valuation? In a buyout scenario, anything less than 1bn would seem under valued. The board need to hold their nerve and so do the shareholders.

Is it a sweepstake? I'm going fior £1.7 billion, £25 a share. I'd take less if we could keep some royalties or a share swap?

What HBD said. Just look at the news section on the PH website. This is what they do for most clients. All this rubbish about PH manipulation to get their mates in is pure guff. No institution is going to stump up £20 million for a company that can be manipulated in this way. I wouldn't mind betting that they have a institution ready but are waiting until other things are in place. Like an approved CTA.

Forgot the link
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-61404664

Was just watching this today as my other half has followed her journey since she started the podcasts. Such a brave and strong woman! also highlights the need for compounds like ours to be fast-tracked. She was treated at Marsen Street in conjunction with ICR. I wonder if they tried her on SRA737. I'm going to donate to the fund too.

I'd love to see your search history, Citizen :-)

The deal is the deal is the deal. This is why I believe we need to get 1801 and 1802 licenced and in trails before we even think about selling up, Currently, we have no idea what the real value is. We can speculate and research the potential but if we had a couple of licence deals worth say £1 billion in late-stage milestones each, which isn't uncommon when talking about Bio Bucks. Then we'd be sitting at an SP that reflects that and we'd have an idea of what to expect a buyout might be. At the moment we'd be very lucky to get £10 a share when we should be looking at double or even triple that. FWIW, I think we will have a licencing deal for 1801 before this year is done. I think it will be low upfront, maybe £10 million or so but big chunky milestones on the backend of the trials. There are loads of example P1 licence deals out there for comparison and there is no reason to think SAR are any different to other Bio minnows. Just need a little more patience and have a strategy.