Member Info for potnak

This line from the press release makes me thing SRA1802 is heading to GSK too. "Luke Miels, Chief Commercial Officer, GSK said: “Sierra Oncology complements our commercial and medical expertise in haematology."

The 1801 patent grant for AML was puzzling me. Not that we'd go for that market as an indication more that it was specifically granted for AML when other patents we have a broader spectrum of indications.

Wheels within wheels.

The Myelofibrosis market is expected to be $680 million by 2025 so 1.8 billion is a low ball offer for a drug already in the late stages of development. I don't think SRA737 is even priced into this deal which doesn't make sense. They have either got the bargain of the century or they don't see the value and plan to offload it to the likes of Astra? As usual, more questions than answers. I'm not complaining, it has to be good for Sareum. Think i'd be p*ssed if I were a SRRA shareholder though.

I think there is a blood cancer link here and Sareums recent patent in this area is significant.

Lol, Cobalt. I think you filtered some valid posters.

Hi C79. I only skim read that and it is way above me but are you saying that our TYK2 won't have the same issues because we are cleaner with no jak2?

Yes, Blue. If PH bring an ii on board, a placement will be how they do it. That is litterally what they do for most of their clients. It would be virtually impossible to invest say £20 million in SAR on the open market without pushing up the price with each sale. I reckon we'll have to give away 20% of the company in share terms and whomever buys in will probably want a place on the board. We will be dilluted in term of the percentage of the company we own but if all goes well. The SP should be back in the £5 range. My only issue with bringing an ii on board at this late stage is the voting power the PI's lose. That and it signals to the market that there is no major deal imminent. Not a bad thing as such but it will be slow burner as we push the compounds through trials ourselves.

Having said all the above, IMO there is a complex relationship puzzle being solved. It probably involves Sierra, Gilead, the Belgium connections, the HNWI and potential partners for 1801 and 1802. Its all wheels within wheels. We just have to sit it out and wait for it all to be sorted.

Honestly, some posters here! this 'secret' group is even a secret. The link has been posted here numerous times. It isn't even that active, sometimes days can go by without any posts. What the Telegram group can give is the option to posts images, proper links and the ability to have open conversations without risking a ban. Do you seriously think that some here don't have private conversations? A lot of you have shared contacts details with Thoth! I'm in both groups, I'm not an admin but Im pretty sure there was no vetting when the group was set up. It was litterally set up to give us the above options. It is also a good place to escape this group when you all start squabling and/or the conspiracy theories start.

And with steady, the paranoia returns. I wonder what could keep stock down. Brexit? A pandemic? Or war, even? What about all three? We are where we are because we aren't there yet. We soon will be. Nobody ever complained when the the mm's manipulated Sareum to a 200 million market cap based on the 5 million raised off some hwni investments.

It's just a group, Thoth. Less noise, no ramping, no deramping, less anti science and a contributer with a mate who has a bloomberg terminal. We pretty much know who the HNWI are.

It's not really guess work. Sareum have always been upfront with the shareholders, we know TYK2 is hot right now, we know that autoimmune is a massive market and we know the size of previous deals that have been made. I said this yesterday. We don't have to be confident that 1801 will go to market, Sareum will never take it to market anyway.

We gamble that a big pharma will be willing to pay a fraction of the potential market size based on preclinical and early trial data. That is the Sareum business model and sooner or later, the data will be impossible to ignore.

The autoimmune market is predicted to hit 90 billion by 2024. Imagine a drug that could target just 10% of that market then imagine how much big pharma would pay to get exclusive rights to it. Then imagine the same but for cancer.

I really hope our TYK2 compounds can go all the way and help with some terrible illnesses but from an investing perspective we only need big pharma to recognise the potential.

Cornish, thanks for this! Very interesting. I'm going to talk to my physio too! As Thoth would say, most illness is autoimmune if you dig down. Bodes well for any company that can tap that market :-).

And this https://www.livescience.com/antihistamines-to-treat-long-covid-pasc

Coincidently, Thoth. I read a couple of week ago that antihistamines can help with long Covid. I have some mild long Covid symptoms, 6 months after catching it. Been taking some hay-fever relief that I had anyway and I must admit, I feel like it's working. Could be placebo but it is a thing. https://www.bhf.org.uk/informationsupport/heart-matters-magazine/news/coronavirus-and-your-health/long-covid/what-do-we-know-about-long-covid

Quick buck? Been here 10 years, I've got 2.5 million shares all bought under a penny and I already took my initial stake out, I'm on a free ride. Been here years and never intended to see this through to P3. I'm hoping we are bought out way before then. If not, I have my exit price. I'm as confident as I can be, that SAR will be worth 2 billion before we get to squeeky bum time in P3 even without the Covid play. We might have to wait a few years but it will come.

Maid - if you gave 120 million people something simple like an established hay-fever tablet tomorrow. Quite a few of them would have some major complications and the would be some deaths. Just like the vaccines. Its about numbers. Even if 12000 died because the of the vaccine (they didn't) that's only 0.01% of the doses. The vaccines work and they are safe.

I don't have to have confidence in Sareums 1801. I just have to rely on investors like you with blind faith that being positive will make it work. I have confidence in the process and I know how the market works. That's all I need. I'll be out way before P3 trials finish. Maybe we all will be.

I am working on what the company tells us is what will happen next. I'm fine with as long as there are no more delays.
However, I am increasingly drawn into thinking that as Sixth says, there is a plan we don't about. It is my belief that we have been in talks for a couple of years now but when discussing deal sizes the numbers have been on the small side. The problem for SAR is we were cash poor, why would any pharma offer a minnow a minimum of 2 billion when they can barely keep the lights on year on year. It's my belief that the NEDS were brought on board to give the board some clout and also compliance when negotiating a deal. Then came the HNWI cash. This effectively gives us enough cash to put 1801 through P1, it says to any prospective buyer, that we can raise sufficient cash if needed and that if we get to the end of P1, the price for a buyout increases significantly. Take it or leave is the answer. The other thing puzzling me is the lack of any sort of PR around the tox data. If SAR wanted to attract investors, they could have done a round of interviews to say we are heading for the clinic in H2 this year. They haven't done this so you have to ask why? Notwithstanding an absolute disaster, the absolute minimum SP we are looking at here is 525p (10.5p in old money) this figure was the amount one of the HNWI could exercise more warrants. Any deal or licence will see us past 525p and possibly double or triple that on certain milestones being reached. I'm confident we will get there, I just don't know when. At that point, there will be a lot of soul searching from some LTH, I include myself in that. Do we then wait for a Successful P2/P3 or do we take our already massive profits? I feel for the guys who bought at 6, 7, 8 and 9p. It sucks but you have bought into a company where, if all goes well, the potential market size for our compounds are in the 10 of billions, maybe even 100's of billions. How much do you think the compounds are worth untested? How much could the buying phama's market cap rise by on the news they have secured a promising TYK2 compound? Id say the likes of Pfizer, Johnson, Gilead and others could buy Sareum and it wouldn't cost them anything. At the end of the day, the accountants will decide what the risk is and how much, in turn, Sareum are worth.

Maid. In England alone, there have been approx 120 million vaccines given. If you gave our 1801 TYK2 capsule to that many people, there would be lots of complications, side effects a yes, deaths. Its all about the numbers. I will never understand investors here saying the vaccine is rushed and harming people but then saying our as yet untested compound is the answer. It's like moaning about climate change but then investing in oilers.

Nope. This is what I suspected would happen. It is big news but for new investors, its just a tick in the box. I'm pleased and happy that we,are moving forward. We are about to apply to test on humans, we are fully funded for that trial and the long term holders know that SRA737 was licenced shortly after the P1 started. Same MO, same paterern except this time the compound is 100% owned by us. All road lead to £10.

Now we wait for the CTA!

The market will decide what value of the preclinical compound are. I've said multiple times that I'm not sure the tox results will give us a lift. In terms of development, the completion of the studies is huge and will mean we can file a CTA. But in terms of market sentiment, some investors may just see it as a tick in box on the CTA form.
Also, good tox data doesn't mean 1801 is tox free, only a P1 trial can tell us that. Add the above into a mix where it is very risky to hold AIM shares and you can see why there aren't many buyers. I think we are at the mercy of the traders and Mm's until tangible news comes along and that will probably be when we lodge the CTA or a major ii comes on board. I hope I'm wrong about the tox results but if it does spike, I'll he trading a few, just to keep it exciting until the big RNS comes along.