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SCH - and even more importantly. It doesn't even matter if it happens before or after. The resulting market cap will be the same. Tox results are just the next step in a whole staircase of steps we have to climb. They might give us a boost or they might be priced in. One thing is certain though. If the consolidation vote fails. The SP will keep on sliding until we get tangible news.

I think most here are overthinking the consolidation. To get the sort of investment that will see us through P1 trials and into P2 for all compounds, It is likely that we will have to dilute the number of shares by a further 10, 15 or 20% and whoever Peel Hunt approach. That investment will look more attractive if the number of shares is 6, 9 or 12 million rather than 350, 525 or 700 million. That's all it is. If we want to play with the big boys, we have to at least look like a player. If doing a consolidation allows us to move on to the next stage, I'm voting yes. There are some here who used to swear they were getting out at 2p while we languished at sub 0.5p. They didn't of course and some had a chance to get out with a 20 bagger with 10 of millions of shares when we hit 9.5p. Literally, millionaires if they had sold, they didn't get out. You can't blame the company for that. I hope no sympathy. AIM is a casino, set a target and stick to it. I have reevaluated my targets and as RMM stated. To keep the MM's guessing, I won't be divulging that information here.

Look what our friends at the ICR are working on. It mentions a couple PD-1 drugs but would it also work with CHK1 as a combo? https://www.icr.ac.uk/news-archive/focused-sound-waves-and-immunotherapy-combination-shows-promise-in-pancreatic-cancers

I'm a LTH, KatS and I'd largely agree with your post. However, we've all bought in to IP and the science and we know, only one of the compound have to work or even look like they will work for us to 10 bag from here. We know the size of the markets and we know the size of similar deals that have been made for similar compounds. It isn't all speculation, as Thoth would say, it is educated gambling. My own conservative estimate of potential value, just based on the knowledge above is a £2Bn market Cap in the next 18 months (assuming no trial setbacks). The main thing killing the SP is the uncertainty. Delays and non-committal comms have seen us drop from 8p to here not Peel Hunt. Consolidation is the next step in the process and the boards said early 2022 for this but they are waiting until what looks like March to consolidate. Why wait, unless you are waiting for something else to happen first? My educated guess is the Tox results or news from Sierra will drop before the EGM.

DP64. There is no hidden agenda. They literally told us the consolidation is to attract new investors. PH are now on board and again, this is literally what they do. Just look at what they did last year, here https://www.peelhunt.com/news/archive. Once the consolidation is done they will find us some new investors via a placing or institutional investors. It will mean a dilution of shares again but I expect they will go for a raise of £20 to 30 million. As I said, no hidden agenda, it is all there in the RNS section. You are choosing to not accept what the company is telling you. The SP will be £5 a share (in new money) by the summer. Possibly much more than that if we get news on SRA737 and if consolidation is part of the strategy to turn Sareum into a proper Biotech, then I'm voting yes. In fact, go the whole way and list on the main market or Nasdaq, do it properly.

Yes, from me. Just get on with it.

A 0.5% share of that market and my retirement is sorted just on CHK1 royalties.

WIP, how are you working that out? Sierra would need sales of 40bn a year for SAR to get 1bn in royalties? Is that what you are saying? The deal is 27.5% of high single to low double-digit royalties on the net sales of any product successfully developed. Or put another way SAR would effectively get 2.7% of Sierra's net sales. I'd be more than happy with £100 million in milestones let alone a billion!

I'd agree with that, RMM but to capitalise on the news and boost the SP the board would have to say that the next generation of TYK2\JAK's doesn't have the same safety concerns. In reality, we won't know for sure until phase 1 is complete. However, the tox result might be good enough for a pharma to want to secure rights to the compound early. I'd expect low upfront with big backend milestones in this case. For me, the board are not making the right noises to say this is the case. I think we are holding out for a major deal.

The consolidation is the spanner in the works that leads me to this conclusion. Other than securing further investment, there is no reason to consolidate and If we had an imminent deal on the table, that would presumably bring in enough cash to progress 1801\1802 through P1 and preclinical? So why consolidate? The board is playing a game of poker here and they are using our money as the stake. I'm ok with that because the pot is massive.

Depends. 737 could be near commercialization in 18 months if Sierra pulls their finger out. 1801 should be well on the way to P2 and 1802 should be in P1. Depending on licensing deal sizes, we could be north of 30p maybe even 50p. Lots of variables and it would be unheard of in the bio sector not to have a failure, even at this stage of development. A lot of potential but also lots of risks. Of course, in the meantime, we could get an offer that takes it all out of our hands. I still allow myself some dreaming. :-)

It's been a long time, Warthog but I do think the LTH will have an exit in the next 18 months if they wish to take it. 18 months should see all compounds in trials and a licensing deal or two signed. The 'new' investors will then be sat on their hands until trial results.

I try to keep away from the day to day posts here and just have a skim through in the evening. My expectations and sanity are much better for it Looking at the board today could be like looking at the board 3 years ago. Nothing really has changed, we cling on to the presumed next piece of news like a comfort blanket. Unless the tox results are the catalyst to bigger news, I think they are priced into the SP already and successful competition of preclinical is absolutely RNS'able but not necessarily price sensitive. IMO the news flow will be the end of pre-clinical, consolidation, big Institutions buying in. Also on Bluenose point, the HNWI investment is a placement, and generally, you don't get insider news when you buy into a placement. So I'm not sure they know any more than we do. However, they will probably have had an audience with Tim, John, and the board and will have seen the known data. They also appear to be the kind of investors that will know how to digest that data and understand what and when news will flow. They will be playing the long game, just like we are. As others have said. It's a waiting game. Just got to keep sitting on those hands.

It is good. Whether intended or not this RNS should give us some stability. They have basically said 5p is the baseline and 7p by May. I expect some share churn as this should put to bed any thoughts of imminent deals. Traders will sell and investors will buy.

The SP will keep drifting while ever a consolidation is hanging over us as most investors know that a raise usually follows a consolidation. Not being negative, they literally said it was to attract investment. Investment means a further dilution of shares. The magic trick is to get an investment that will raise the market cap not lower it. I see no reason why we shouldn't be trading back in the 7 or 8p range (or equivalent) by the time the CTA is lodged and nearer 15p with 737 progress and 1801 starting P1. An on-licence might push us to 20p. But to get there, we need to jump through some hoops.

How do we get to 6p though? IMO there will be no news until consolidation and II investment.

Aber - I am not a fan of them but our expert advisors and corporate finance experienced board all say this is the way to go. I have to believe that they know what they are doing and trust they have the shareholders best interests in hand. The level of the consolidation whether it is 10-1 or 100-1 is irrelevant if the market cap stays the same. There are definite positives to having fewer shares in issue, the main one being stability. The MM's will no longer be able to manipulate the shares if £100k is only 10000 shares. No institution is going to give us £20 million if they think they will lose money straight off the bat as the HNWI have. A consolidation will introduce some stability and the company will be more attractive to institutions. We are in the rock\hard place and the SP will drift down until we have some certainty. The board need to make some tough decisions and the shareholders need to back them. The quicker we do it, the less time there is for SP drift.

I haven't jumped to conclusions. I'm waiting for a consolidation and institutional investment then a CTA in the summer. Just like they told us. I'm happy with all that

Yes, geejay. And SCH, not ignoring the gsk link just saying a consolidation beforehand isn't needed. It just seems like another rabbit hole to go down while we wait for the actual news and progression.

I will add that I feel the consolidation will be good for sareum. We've got a roadmap, just need the cash now.

Still not convinced. I can't see any other reason for the consolidation than the one they've given us. It's to attract Institutional Investors. Its literally what Peel Hunt do for hundreds of their clients. Thoughts of a buyout is nice and a distraction but the value of the company is the value of the company. A 2 billion pound valuation is the same whether there are 35 million shares or 3.5 billion shares.