Member Info for potnak

Yes, I've seen these types of share swaps. Can't recall even seeing a company that consolidated before an acquisition. Surely it isn't needed in this scenario?

Yes, I've seen these types of share swaps. Can't recall even seeing a company that consolidated before an acq

SCH, I'm intrigued by the share swap idea? Do you have experience where this happened with other companies? Does anyone else. What I mean is has anyone been in a company that consolidated and then went on to sell with a share swap.

We'd need to raise enough cash to take us through the next 18 to 24 months. Salaries, lab time, expert consulting, trials etc.. . It will all add up quickly. No point in just raising enough and hoping we will get a deal. Raise big and do it soon, consolidation is key to this strategy. If we can show we are moving forward and are self sufficient, the buyout price goes up.

£20 million added to what we already have would only be enough to get 1801 through P1 and complete pre clinical on 1802. IMO, flt3 will be shelved until we have out licenced the TYK2 compounds and have spare funds to develop it. I think the above scenario is an insurance policy for if we don't get a deal. The consolidation is the key to all this and we will still be looking at a 10% dilution of shares to get anything like £20 million. Personally, I just want them to get on with it. 10/1 or 100/1 Just it now so we can move forward.

Sorry to hear that Ahfam. Keep the family unit strong and look after your mum.

Kool. Been here for 8/9 years. Can't actually remember. I have been sitting on between 1 and 2.5 million shares and have been anything between 50% down and over a 1000% up on my investment in that time. I know how SAR works and I know how long bio takes. I also know how long it will take to get 1801 and 1802 to market. I never planned to be around to see it and the clock is ticking on the patent, the submarine patent extends the length of the patent but every year lost to trials is a lost year of revenue, if the trials are successful. The business model is to develop drugs and on licence them at preclinical or early-stage trials. All I want is for the board to get on with it and tell us the plan.

It's the uncertainty that kills any forward momentum. Phrases like seek to lodge a CTA by mid 2022 or EGM for consolidation in early 2022, what do they mean? When does early 2022, just become 2022? is it before mid 2022? it's laughable. The big one is Covid. We keep seeing tweets but with no context to timescales. We know TKY2 drugs could treat Covid patients, but when? If we started the process of trials today, even if fast tracked, it could still be a year before we could dose actual Covid patients. Will there be enough of them by 2023?

We also have a large selection of investors who think we'll be in Poundland by the end of the year, thinking our covid drug is better than the competition. Yes, it's better than an £8 a dose steroid but early studies show it is only as good as Baracitanib, not better, the same. Is the same good enough reason for big pharma to take it on? Trials will tell us but we have to get there first.

I'm siding with the board here, they must have a plan but it is no longer good enough to use non-committal language when communicating with the investors. The new HNWI investment is already £200k down, how does look to future investors?

It is no longer good enough to say "the science is good, trust the science". I want the business model to be good, underpinned by the science. If consolidation gives us more investment and less volatility. JDFI so we can move on.

Unite - The road map is in the last few RNS's. There are questions around 1801 covid but we may have to wait for tox report before we know that. 1801 covid has to go through P1 and to apply for a CTA we need the tox data. 737 is the unknown, news on that could come anytime and could double the SP from here.

10p will come and go in the next 6 months. Progress on SRA737 and confirmation of 1801 trials will see the SP at nearer 20p.

Blue - closure is a personal choice. You can sell whenever YOU want but this is biotech, it takes a long time to get to market. 1802 proves this, not scheduled to complete pre clinical until 2023. However, there will be some value added along the way and there will be some spikes too. There may also be some royalties from accelerated 737 and or 1801 covid by the end of 2023.

A P1 is a P1 whatever the drug is. If I'm investing, the end of a P1 is when the data is readout. If the CTA is applied for at the end of Q2, we will have to wait for approval then recruit healthy patients. That will take us to the end of 2022. The trail might be done and dusted in a couple of months but there won't be a readout of the data for months after the finish. Your example doesn't show any of the pre or post timescales. I'm saying it will be towards the end of 2023 before we even think about a P2 or maybe a P2a. This isn't a negative post by me and everyone else can make their own conclusions but we saw how long CHK took even before Sierra paused it. IMO the consultants will help choose the indication and design the trials even though the first cohort will be healthy patients. SAR will want data for the targeted dosage for the chosen indication. Get it right first-time sort of thing.

Yes, HBD. It all depends how you define 'the endgame'. With a good indication choice, Sareum will be a billion-pound company way before 1801 gets market.

As an aside to this. I think the Covid play falls into the easy win but in an ever-increasing crowded market where we wouldn't be able to charge what we could if it were Sepsis for example.

Just quickly checked through the RNS.

SRA 737
Dec 2015 CTA
Approved CTA Apr 2016
Started P1 June 2016
Update June 2017
Update on preclin data Oct 2017
Expanded P1\P2 Trial March 2018

The trial itself can be done in months depending on what they are trialling but you have recruitment or patients beforehand then analysis of the data before publishing the data. IMO 18 months is about right. How long did 737 take?

Unless fast-tracked, it is highly unlikely that an 1801 phase 1 will complete before 2024. and 1802 will probably be 2025/26. I actually think a licencing deal will come shortly after we start P1 but that still could be 2023 by the time we've recruited the patients. I'm not risk-averse, I'm just not kidding myself with the timescales. There will be plenty of options to get out with a massive profit before then. I've said before, I'm not dreaming anymore and I'd rather be a wealthy middle-aged man than a rich old man.

It's not PH. Without further news, the current ceiling for the SP is 5p, the price of the last subscription. Why would anyone buy higher than that, knowing there we are looking at Q2\Q3 before we get any major news. The MM's know this too but they can still generate sells and buys under 5p. So that's what they are doing.

Just to add to this. I think it's safe to say that most if not all indications have market sizes in the billions of dollars.

Yes, and I think we will get a decent upfront before this year is out. I wonder what indication they will go for? They will choose the one with the most chance of success but I wonder which one that is? The deal size will be based on the indication choice and size of that market. I think we will find out the indication after the tox results so not long to wait, in the grand scheme of things.

Only a few hundred 1000 here or there. I was on a free ride going into nov\dec but ended up buying another 200k shares when the sp was around 4.5p. Back to holding almost 2.5 million again. I will defo sell those 200k if we go back near 10p in the near future. The next lot will be around 20p (or the equivalent).