Member Info for potnak

An upfront payment with share options would be the dream deal for me.

Other than a pension, i'm not overly exposed to the stock market ups and downs. However, A SAR deal and spike might come just at the right time when the markets hit the bottom. If we do see a 40% crash then we'll also see a 40% rise in the following years. The same thing happened to me with the pandemic. Pure luck I will add but just before the pandemic started, I was in the process of consolidating some old work pensions into my personal pension. The funds we sold at full price from my old provider but by the time they were reinvested by my new provider the markets had took a 30% downturn and because of this, my pension rose by 35% in 2020\21. Rather than being negative, I'm seeing opportunities. I just hope that SAR do a decent deal before we hit the bottom.

The Galapago thing is hard to ignore as a theory. Especially as Galapagos is based in Belgium. They are looking to licence\buy in compounds and our TYK2 would compliment their pipeline. Also, Galapagos and Gilead have a research partnership. Not only that but Gilead own 9.2% of Sierra. GSK\Sierra confused things a bit further but the wheels within wheels are turning.

We already know that Sareum nailed the tox studies, that's the biggest hurdle. MTD is looking good too. Next is the manufacturing process. Again, looking good. We also know that other TYK2's went through P1 even though they are a bit dirty so there is that. P1 is purely to establish a good safety profile and yes, The proof is in the pudding but we should know by the end of the year if a P1a or P2 is coming. IMO, we will go into P2 with a chunky licence. The risk of failure as in, it doesn't work starts at that point.

My guess is they will aim for a trial start date in Q4 to give time to recruit some healthy 'patients'. With is in mind they could wait until the latter end of June to alert the market that a CTA has been logged. Maybe a bit sooner if they wish to commence the trails early in Q4. IF past experience is anything to go by (SRA737). We could have a licencing deal for 1801 by the end of the year. If, by then, we know what is going to happen with GSK and 737 we could be in for a very happy Christmas. I'm still very relaxed here. I come to this board once or twice a day just to see if anyone has found the smoking gun but I'm not obsessed with the intraday prices. Still think we have a 10 bagger from here.

I think HBD made a good point earlier. Will they announce the indication they intend run trials in? The CTA is another tick in the box unless they give the market something else with the news. If they give us an indication, we can attach it to a market size and a potential value. If not then I think it is priced into the current range. It would be good to see £3 though.

Having said the below. I just wanted to add that the PI's could choose to ignore the board's recommendation. There are enough PI's to outvote the board but we saw that most didn't bother to vote with the consolidation.

Ben, the shareholder get involved as soon as an offer is made. The board have no say in this. That's not to say that a figure hasn't been discussed behind closed doors but if a pharma officially offered £300 million. The offer would have to be put to the shareholders for a vote with a recommendation from the board as to which way to vote. IMO, This scenario is one of the reasons the NEDS are onboard. Tim and John are too close to make that recommendation on their own. Having NEDS partially protects us from low ball offers that might still make Tim and John millionaires. I think it is way too early for a buyout offer. We don't yet know the value of our compounds. We need a licencing deal for TYK2 first, the, indication, milestones and royalty size offer will give us a good starting point to talk takeover prices. I'm still calling £2 billion but only after both TYK2 are in trials.

For a moment, I thought we had AWOO back! remember him? Made his fortune on 88e in his early 20's and professed to be the best and most flamboyant trader on AIM. Never heard of him since.

The only news i'm expecting is the CTA being filed. If PH is going to get an institution on board, it'll be after the CTA but before the start of the trial. And, if we do get an institution onboard, there isn't a need to do an early licence deal. SRA737 is still unknown. We could get a licencing deal but then we wouldn't need II onboard unless they want to buy on the open market. We won't get an update on 737 until the GSK\Sierra deal is inked and approved by the shareholders and regulators. I'm pretty sure the board have got lots of spinning plates going, trying to balance maximum value for the shareholders but also making sure the science is protected. As always, patience is needed but as each milestone is reached the value goes up.

New motto. Sareum, wottsit all about.

Please don't buy, Directors. If you buy it means there is no news due. :-)

I'm not a Sierra holder but yes, Basser. I think you have been sold short. I honestly don't think that GSK want SRA737. They will either hand it back or sell it on. I think the price they paid reflects they don't see the value in SRA737. The problem for anyone who takes it on is its going to be a money pit to get it through trials and GSK have a need for drugs that are going to start paying for themselves straight away. For Sareum, yesterday's news just gave us more questions and more waiting because GSK are big enough to just sit on it so no one else can have it.

It's all about the size of the market. I think £2 billion before phase 3, mainly because if it enters phase 3 with promising data, then the price goes up significantly. A pharma spending £2 billion to secure a potential 100's of billion market size is what big pharma does. They get the potential but also take us off the market. GSK has deemed Sierra to be worth 1.5 billion, seemingly just on a 680 million market size. For Sareum, our 27% share of SRA737 will be worth £500 - £800 million if it gets to market. The two TYK2 could be a billion each by the end of P2, then we have the shelved FLT and the SKIl platform. All of a sudden 2 billion doesn't sound like a lot of money. It could, of course, all end in tears but the above is why the LTH have stayed around for all these years.

Honestly, IMO. Once SAR have all compounds in early trials. We could be valued at 2 billion pounds not dollars. Our pipeline may be behind Sierra's in term if development but it is much stronger with much much more potential market size. As I said this morning. The Myelofibrosis is expected to reach 680 million dollars by 2025. The SAR pipeline potential market size is in the hundreds of billions. We only need one to stick and we could be looking at an offer, double the size of the Gsk deal.

I wouldn't be surprised if SRA737 was handed back or to another party. Other than the About Sierra section, the press release doesn't mention SRA737.

It will be news to Sareum just as it is news to us. CRT might have known it was coming but not Sareum. I would expect a statement from GSK and CRT about the licensing agreement and we will RNS that with a note.

There will be another one along in a few minutes :-)

lol, PME!

There will have to be a note from Sareum at some point but they will be digesting the news and what it means for SRA737 just like we are. We don't have long to wait.