Member Info for potnak

Yes, 1b data is going to be very interesting reading for potential partners. If 1801 inhibition is the same as in mice then if will be game on going into phase 2. Still think 1801 is the loss leader as it were. 1802 potential could bring in the big offers. From a strategic business point of view. An on licence for 1801 would lock us into that partner. So any partners interested in 1802 will be watching the trials closely as it could be cheaper to buy the lot outright.

Yes, the headline figure is right and Sareum's SP will quickly rise as we progress through the trials. I keep saying 2 billion by the end of phase 2 for 1801 but we could be 1 billion by then anyway. In someways, Sareum are grossly undervalued but a transition from drug discovery company to clinical stage company should see that change.

737 is only phase 3 ready as a monotherapy though. IMO, 737 will have to go through Phase 2 again as a combo, posibly even p1 tox studies as a combo. If 737 is good and is picked up, I reckon it's worth £800 million as a P2 asset so the figures quoted in the link are still achievable once tox and efficacy is proved in 1801.

I mean, just to add some balance from a LTH. I'm not convinced on 737 and won't be until we get news. None of it adds up. Sierra were gangbusting 737 until they needed cash to develop further. Then nothing. The were trying to secure funding for 737 but never got it. That's the first red flag. If the compound is as good as we hope, Why couldn't they find investment? Then in come GSK with offer for Sierra which was obviously to low ball to account for a promising compound, again why? GSK could easily have put 737 through a small combo P2 trials for a relative low cost. Why give it back when they had it on the cheap? Maybe they hit some contractual issues, maybe they didn't want competition for a compound they already had like Aber says. like say, I doesn't add up to me. It's like buying an Audi R8 with the keys to a broken down Aston Martin in the boot. You already have an Aston so instead of fixing the Aston and selling it on, you give the keys back.

Absolutely this, Leggster. To quote Tim M from a few years ago "no news is good news".

Retail investing is a casino. The market will always be protected and that's probably a good thing. Saw a statistic not long ago, something like 70% of Aim companies either lost investor money or disappeared altogether. I remember being in Northern Rock back in 2008. I was riding a pretty predicatable wave of SP drops and swings all in the same day. Then the regulators stepped in and suspended trading. Worse than that, they never traded again. I lost about £2k there. Some lost life savings. We'll get our moment, hopefully one or two big moments and the Mm's manipulation will work in our favour.

Of course there is corruption, of course there will be traders sowing negative opinion to try and get in a couple of points lower but wide spread collusion on a pharma minow? There little to no evidence of any stake building, anywhere. No one person or org has breached the 3% and therefore notifiable holding. So who is doing it. The answer is no one. If you want to prove the supply and demand theory. Put 10 x £10k orders in. Watch the mm's create some liquidity and push the SP up. Think it was Searle who did just that here a few years back. He put an order in for 11111 shares, then 22222 and 33333 and so on until he ran out of cash. Aim likes a conspiracy so the SP went up. Someone did it on pyc a few years back too. They even breached the 3%. The SP spiked on rumour and he sold the lot. Was it illegal?Hard to prove it in court. The SP will rise once punters want to buy in.

Simple Supply and demand, Ahfam. When demand for the shares is high, the SP goes up. When there is no demand the SP will invariably drift down. We can all predict the future potential but Calling the bottom would be the real investing superpower.

I always find the notion that there is some dark force driving down the SP laughable. Who would do it and for what reason? If we saw big buys come in, it might be believable but we never do. The Mm's can only work if there is liquidity in the market. Orders come in, the mm's then facilitate that order and make a small percentage for the trouble. They don't buy stock and hold it for a rainy day. There is a good explanation if the different trading systems here. https://aim-watch.com/project/seaq-sets-setsqx/

Sareum are on the SETSqx system, part electronic, part mm intervention.

These types of deals are why I think SAR will have a potential value of 2 billion by the end of a successful 1801 P2 trial. If we can get similar deals for 1801, 1802, and 737. We could be looking at total milestones of 5 or 5 billion dollars. Of course, we'd only get that if all 3 compounds got to market, if we got that far, then the sales and therefore royalties to SAR would dwarf that amount within a few years. This is why it will be taken off the market once tox and efficacy are proven. I'm not kidding myself that it will be a quick process, and we could be taken out much lower than that before then. but this is why i hold.

I'd be surprised if the Mm's know anything at all about the value. How, could they retain all that knowledge for the 100's if not 1000's of companies trading in the markets. They will work off the order book then facilitate the market. They will have a few tools at thief disposal, Bloomberg terminals and broker notes but essentially, they go where the orderbook takes them. Traders can make the marlet move and the lack of movement is consistent with the timescales given in the RNS. As it stands, for 1801,its now a waiting game while we get through tox and dose escalation. Hopefully, an RNS stating part 1 is complete and we are good to go to part 2 will come in the next 6 weeks. It would be good to get 737 or funding news, in the meantime.

IMO, Attending the conference means one if not both compounds are still in the shop window, as it were. Not a bad thing, I might add. And yes, I think the timing is coincidental too. Again not a bad thing. Im sure lots a passing congratulations will be given from other delegates. Sometimes that's all you need to get the conversation started.

I thought it was a good RNS. Gives clear details on the scope of the trial and some timescales. The clock is now ticking on the 6 week part 1 phase. This 6 weeks includes screening visit, and presumably screening is done before the dosing day so we could already be 1 week in. I still think, if it follows the 737 path, that an on licence by September is likely.

The wording is 'anticipated start date' so there is some wiggle room for them there. My guess is, if we get an RNS to confirm first dosing, it will be after the initial first dose and monitoring. This is, as Tim once said, a "no news is good news" scenario.

Same sentiments as others here. It would have been nice to meet Andy in person but I will raise a glass to him. Might have to buy in some cheesy wotsits for the occasion too.

Sareum havent picked the indication yet. I reckon 2 years before a cta for 1802. Unless someone takes it off our hands before then? 1801 trial, validates both compounds when it comes to safety so the value of 1802 goes up without us actually doing anything with it.

Yep, I think another 2 years before sell up time. Plenty of waves to ride between now and then though.

TL;DR

2 billion by the end of P2. If, big, big if we get that far. Will we get there? History says its unlikely. Not many drugs do. But if we do, I will make the same percentage profit as most LTH here without spending hundreds of hours doing research. I learnt a while ago that this board was a comfort blanket. Not anymore, I check in, check out again and live my life in between.

I don't really care either way, I just scroll past and don't read but the thing I don't get is why posters want to come to this board on a weekend anyway! If I find myself looking, I log out.